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Noyan Tapan Highlights #37 (539)
20 September, 2004
Breakthrough in Karabakh?
By Haroutiun Khachatrian
Periods of International tension is not the best time to settle
conflicts. Mid September 2004 is the period of increase in tension in
Caucasus, both internal, and among the states. The increasing
uncertainty among Georgia and Russia following the impatient storming
of Georgia in South Ossetia, the shock of Azerbaijan leadership over
the cancellation of the NATO war games have greatly aggravated by the
aftermath of the tragedy in Beslan.
Russia has almost closed its borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan,
hence bringing new problems to these countries, and, of course, to
Armenia as well. On this background, the CIS summit in Astana,
Kazakhstan, brought together the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Formally, the meeting which lasted almost five hours
(including 1.5 hour with Russian President Putin as the third partner,
and some time of talks in the presence to the Minsk Group Co-Chairmen)
has brought no results. However, there are some bases to expect some
progress here.
First, the meeting was to develop the results of the meeting of the
Foreign Ministers of the two countries held in Prague on August 30,
which both ministers characterized as very positive.
Second, the presence of the Putin, who, according to a Russian
newspaper, is eager to become the principal peace-maker in Nagorno
Karabakh, might have a certain positive impact.
Third, the above-mentioned whole atmosphere of uncertainty and the
danger emergence of additional problem every new day could also
stimulate the presidents to additional flexibility.
As "leakage" of information shows, the versions under discussion may
include some moves aimed at return of at least part of the Azeri
displaced persons to the territories around Nagorno Karabakh now
controlled by the Armenian forces. If so, Robert Kocharian has,
probably, given up from his commitment to the "package solution"
implying link between the return of those territories and the
determination of the status of Nagorno Karabakh. This path may result
in decreasing the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its
dangers are also evident.
In fact, nothing is clear yet. There is no guarantee that the
breakthrough will take place, even in the form of a preliminary
agreement between the two leaders. Let's wait another couple of
months.
---
http://www.nt.am
20 September, 2004
Breakthrough in Karabakh?
By Haroutiun Khachatrian
Periods of International tension is not the best time to settle
conflicts. Mid September 2004 is the period of increase in tension in
Caucasus, both internal, and among the states. The increasing
uncertainty among Georgia and Russia following the impatient storming
of Georgia in South Ossetia, the shock of Azerbaijan leadership over
the cancellation of the NATO war games have greatly aggravated by the
aftermath of the tragedy in Beslan.
Russia has almost closed its borders with Georgia and Azerbaijan,
hence bringing new problems to these countries, and, of course, to
Armenia as well. On this background, the CIS summit in Astana,
Kazakhstan, brought together the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Formally, the meeting which lasted almost five hours
(including 1.5 hour with Russian President Putin as the third partner,
and some time of talks in the presence to the Minsk Group Co-Chairmen)
has brought no results. However, there are some bases to expect some
progress here.
First, the meeting was to develop the results of the meeting of the
Foreign Ministers of the two countries held in Prague on August 30,
which both ministers characterized as very positive.
Second, the presence of the Putin, who, according to a Russian
newspaper, is eager to become the principal peace-maker in Nagorno
Karabakh, might have a certain positive impact.
Third, the above-mentioned whole atmosphere of uncertainty and the
danger emergence of additional problem every new day could also
stimulate the presidents to additional flexibility.
As "leakage" of information shows, the versions under discussion may
include some moves aimed at return of at least part of the Azeri
displaced persons to the territories around Nagorno Karabakh now
controlled by the Armenian forces. If so, Robert Kocharian has,
probably, given up from his commitment to the "package solution"
implying link between the return of those territories and the
determination of the status of Nagorno Karabakh. This path may result
in decreasing the tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its
dangers are also evident.
In fact, nothing is clear yet. There is no guarantee that the
breakthrough will take place, even in the form of a preliminary
agreement between the two leaders. Let's wait another couple of
months.
---
http://www.nt.am