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SOCHI COMPACT. -- Russia Casts Its Vote for President of Abkhazia

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  • SOCHI COMPACT. -- Russia Casts Its Vote for President of Abkhazia

    Current Digest of the Post-Soviet Press
    September 29, 2004

    SOCHI COMPACT. -- Russia Casts Its Vote for President of Abkhazia.
    Kommersant, Aug. 31, 2004, p. 9. Condensed text of first and complete
    text of second of two items:

    (By Alla Barakhova in Sochi and Vladimir Novikov in Tbilisi). --
    Moscow has made its choice for the presidential election in Abkhazia,
    set for Oct. 3. On Sunday evening [Aug. 29], . . . Russian President
    Vladimir Putin, who was vacationing in Sochi, met with Abkhaz Prime
    Minister and presidential candidate Raul Khadzhimba. In Tbilisi,
    officials saw the meeting as indicating that, for all practical
    purposes, Moscow has recognized Abkhazia's independence.

    Mr. Putin's visit to Sochi's Dagomys Hotel, which is about a
    30-minute drive from Bocharov Ruchei, the president's Sochi
    residence, was portrayed as an impromptu occurrence. The head of
    state was accompanied by just a few bodyguards and a small group of
    reporters. . . .

    Vladimir Putin . . . sequestered himself with Raul Khadzhimba in
    the Panorama Cafe, on the Dagomys Hotel's 22nd floor.

    Members of the Kremlin administration have declined to comment on
    what the Russian president and Abkhaz premier discussed at the
    meeting. According to the official account, the parties discussed
    "matters relating to cooperation between Russian and Abkhaz veterans'
    organizations." Unofficially, however, Kremlin spokesmen have
    acknowledged that the meeting was directly connected to recent
    developments in Georgia. It may be recalled that, one week ago,
    Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in an interview in the
    French newspaper Liberation that Georgia was "on the brink of war
    with Russia." At the same time, mass protests were being held in
    Georgia in front of the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi. The Russian
    leadership was particularly outraged by slogans that were projected
    onto the building and that read, "Putin is a liar" and "The
    double-headed eagle is a two-faced birdie." In connection with these
    actions, the Russian Foreign Ministry sent a protest note to the
    Georgian leadership, and the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi was even
    forced to suspend its operations for a time. . . .

    A source in the Kremlin administration told Kommersant that the
    meeting between Putin and the Abkhaz prime minister at the Dagomys
    should serve as a "lesson in peaceableness" to the Georgian
    president. The source added, "If we wanted to destroy Georgia, all we
    would have to do is switch off the gas. End of story."

    Messrs. Putin and Khadzhimba left the Dagomys together around 8
    p.m., to the sound of applause from vacationers [who had gathered in
    front of the hotel]. . . . Kremlin officials conceded later that that
    "lesson" might not find much favor with Mikhail Saakashvili, who has
    repeatedly voiced his intention to reassert Georgian control over
    Abkhazia. According to the Kremlin, however, technically he has no
    grounds for complaint, since no political statements were made at the
    meeting.

    In Tbilisi, reports of the Sochi meeting between Putin and
    Khadzhimba set off shock waves. Members of the Georgian Parliament
    whom a Kommersant correspondent asked for comment were bewildered,
    and even said initially that the reports were disinformation, "since
    Vladimir Putin could not possibly have taken such a step." Officials
    at the Georgian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant they were studying
    reports of the meeting between the Russian president and the Abkhaz
    prime minister, and that an official response might come later. . . .

    In the absence of Georgia's president [who was away in Athens], the
    chairwoman of the Georgian Parliament, Nino Burdzhanadze, commented
    on the meeting between Putin and Khadzhimba. After expressing
    puzzlement at the very fact the meeting took place, she posed a
    question: Does this mean that Russia recognizes Abkhazia's
    independence and the legitimacy of a presidential election that will
    be held "in the absence of two-thirds of Abkhazia's population?"
    [Burdzhanadze was alluding to the Georgian refugees who fled during
    the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict in 1992-1993. -- Trans.] She promptly
    answered her own question: Russia would find itself the only country
    in the world taking the Abkhaz election seriously. "Along, perhaps,
    with Belarus," Ms. Burdzhanadze added, correcting herself.

    Our sources in Tbilisi confirm that during the Putin-Khadzhimba
    meeting, one of the matters discussed was that of reestablishing rail
    links. As long ago as last year, Putin and [former Georgian
    President] Eduard Shevardnadze agreed on the need to open a
    through-traffic rail line from Russia through Abkhazia and on to
    Tbilisi and Armenia, but the Georgian side linked the issue to a
    return of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia's Gali District, which was
    inhabited almost exclusively by Georgians prior to the war. Tbilisi
    and Sukhumi have deep disagreements over this matter. And that is why
    no decision on restoring full-scale rail connections has been reached
    as yet. Nevertheless, all indications are that a Sukhumi-Moscow route
    will start operating at full capacity in the near future, first for
    freight trains and later for passenger service.

    Overall, the meeting between the Russian president and the Abkhaz
    prime minister indicates that the Kremlin has cast its lot with Mr.
    Khadzhimba in the upcoming presidential election in the unrecognized
    republic. The Abkhaz prime minister is supported not only by the
    "party of power," but also by the republic's incumbent leader,
    Vladislav Ardzinba, who will not be running in the election. Mr.
    Ardzinba is seriously ill and is quitting the political arena,
    although he remains a very respected figure in Abkhazia, since he
    symbolizes Sukhumi's victory in the Georgian-Abkhaz war of 1992-1993
    and Abkhazia's secession from Georgia. The Abkhaz leader's top aides
    believe that Raul Khadzhimba will continue Mr. Ardzinba's policies.
    As does Moscow, apparently.

    * * *

    What's at Stake. (By commentator Gennady Sysoyev). -- Russian
    President Vladimir Putin's meeting with the prime minister of
    Abkhazia, a candidate for president of that unrecognized republic,
    had nothing to do, of course, with discussion of the social welfare
    of Great Patriotic War veterans, as the official protocol reads. The
    meeting was immediately taken as a sign of Moscow's direct support
    for Mr. Khadzhimba's candidacy in the coming election. Abkhazia is a
    tiny republic, so the news that its premier had met with the
    president of Russia would presumably spread to the whole population
    in minutes, and everyone would know which candidate to support on
    Oct. 3.

    This is all undoubtedly true. But the real import of the meeting at
    the Dagomys Hotel lies much deeper. By arranging the meeting, Moscow
    clearly indicated that it views Abkhazia as, at the very least, a
    zone in which it has special interests. And there are a great many
    reasons for this.

    Abkhazia is traversed by a road that connects Russia with Armenia,
    Moscow's chief ally in the Transcaucasus. Not far from the Abkhaz
    city of Gudauta is a strategically important air base that
    specialists describe as unique: Takeoffs of military aircraft from
    this base are virtually undetectable by NATO radar installations in
    Turkey. In addition, the Russian president's southern residence,
    Krasnaya Polyana, is situated on the Psou River within 10 kilometers
    or so of the unrecognized republic's border, and Abkhaz leaders
    regularly remind Moscow that the moment Georgia regains political
    power in Sukhumi, a NATO observation and listening post will go up in
    that same area along the banks of the Psou. Finally, Moscow has
    financial motives for keeping Abkhazia within its zone of influence
    as well: Over the past few years, Russia has acquired a considerable
    amount of real estate in the unrecognized republic, and the drumbeat
    of statements from Georgian politicians about reviewing privatization
    outcomes in Abkhazia once Tbilisi reestablishes its rule there is
    compelling Moscow to do everything it can to prevent Tbilisi from
    doing so.

    But that's still not all. Moscow would like to preserve its
    influence with Georgia, since in view of its strategic partnership
    with Armenia, this would give it control over the Transcaucasus as a
    whole. And retaining its influence in Tbilisi is something Moscow
    expects to do primarily through preserving its control over Abkhazia.

    Formally, Moscow is unlikely to question the territorial integrity
    of Georgia, which officially includes Abkhazia. And so Abkhazia is
    unlikely to become part of the Russian Federation. But there is no
    need for it to do so. From Moscow's point of view, it is sufficient
    that virtually all the residents of Abkhazia hold Russian
    citizenship. This, Moscow considers, gives it the right -- at the
    very least -- to keep Abkhazia under its special care.

    Georgia could, of course, take umbrage at this and resume drawing
    parallels between Abkhazia and Chechnya. It might ask, as Georgian
    Defense Minister Georgy Baramidze did, why it is that when Russia
    defends its borders, it's entirely within its rights, but when
    Georgia tries to do the same, it's engaging in aggression. To all
    such objections, it would appear that Moscow has a ready answer:
    There are no Georgian citizens in Chechnya, and the Abkhaz aren't
    blowing up Georgian airliners.
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