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BAKU:; Azeri pundits say Armenia trying to provoke hostilities

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  • BAKU:; Azeri pundits say Armenia trying to provoke hostilities

    Azeri pundits say Armenia trying to provoke resumption of hostilities

    Zerkalo, Baku
    1 Oct 04

    Armenia is trying to speak to us in the language of threats. This
    conclusion can be inferred from Armenian Defence Minister Serzh
    Sarkisyan's statement made in an interview with Armenian Public
    Television. He said that the fallout from hostilities in Nagornyy
    Karabakh would be extremely unpleasant for both Armenia and
    Azerbaijan. He added that "whatever the outcome of a possible war,
    even the most beneficial for Armenia, we have no desire to be dragged
    into hostilities".

    He said Armenia would have to fight only if the Azerbaijani side
    launched an attack. Sarkisyan noted that Armenia was capable of giving
    "a response that would discourage Azerbaijan from fighting for many
    years". Let's recall that Armenian officials have repeatedly made such
    statements.

    We have asked some Azerbaijani analysts what they think about the
    Armenian defence minister's remarks. The former foreign minister,
    Tofiq Zulfuqarov, said that the statement is unlikely to stem from the
    Armenian minister's desire to maintain peace in the region. He said
    the statement reveals Armenia's intention to blame Azerbaijan for a
    possible resumption of hostilities.

    Zulfuqarov said Sarkisyan's statement comes at a time when, as he
    thinks, another round of talks has not produced results due to
    Armenia's non-constructive position. "To demonstrate Armenia's
    firmness in the issue, the Armenian minister is trying to show that
    Armenia can defend its position even by force," the former minister
    said.

    He added that the resumption of hostilities is mainly impeded by the
    position of the international community. At the same time, he said "if
    no breakthrough is reached in the negotiations, the start of
    hostilities is practically inevitable". The former minister did not
    rule out the possibility of Armenia attempting to resume hostilities,
    thus capitalizing on the factor of the US presidential elections when
    the country's attention will focus on domestic problems.

    Zulfuqarov believes that in a move to solve domestic problems, the
    Armenian administration may provoke Azerbaijan to start a war. He
    added that such statements must send a message to the Azerbaijani
    authorities that the resumption of hostilities by Armenia is a real
    threat and "at this juncture, our country must take specific and
    large-scale action to strengthen its defence capability".

    [Passage omitted: comments by another political analyst]

    Military expert Uzeyir Cafarov said that Sarkisyan's statement
    proceeds from his confidence in Russia. He said that the agreement on
    strategic partnership between these countries enables Moscow to
    provide assistance to Yerevan. Cafarov believes that the wait-and-see
    position of the Azerbaijani authorities is very convenient for
    Armenia. The military expert thinks that while Armenia continuously
    builds up its military potential, Azerbaijan acts like a "guilty
    schoolboy". He added that Azerbaijan must not allow Armenia, its
    defence minister in particular, to make such statements.

    Considering Sarkisyan's statement that starting from 5 January 2005
    Armenia will be able to sign agreements directly with Russian
    [military] enterprises on arms and ammunition supplies on the same
    terms as the Russian army, our country has to think carefully about a
    reciprocal action.
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