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  • Abkhaz presidential race in final lap

    Abkhaz presidential race in final lap
    By Zaal Anjaparidze for The Jamestown Foundation (30/09/04)

    Georgia has watched the unfolding of the presidential race in its breakaway
    republic of Abkhazia with a strangely Olympian calm.

    On 3 October, voters in Abkhazia will choose a successor to their
    ailing president. Vladislav Ardzinba led the region in its fight for
    independence from Georgia in 1992 and 1993 before becoming president
    of the self-declared republic in 1994. The new president of Abkhazia
    will win a five-year term, subject to a two-term limit. The Georgian
    government has watched the unfolding campaign with an Olympian
    calm. As recently as 21 September, Georgian President Mikhail
    Saakashvili described plans to re-incorporate Abkhazia into Georgia
    at the 59th session of the UN General Assembly. No comments on the
    election were made at the traditional commemoration of 27 September,
    the day the Abkhaz capital, Sukhumi, fell 11 years ago, effecting the
    secession of the region. Earlier, Saakashvili dismissed the elections
    as illegitimate and Nino Burjanadze, chair of the Georgian parliament,
    warned Russia against conferring any recognition or legitimacy on
    the elections.

    Favored candidate, radically anti-GeorgianA number of candidates have
    registered, although several refused to comply with a controversial
    new law passed on 3 August that requires candidates to pass an
    Abkhaz-language test and to have been resident in Abkhazia for the past
    five years. Alexander Ankvab, a popular former Abkhaz interior minister
    now living in Russia, and Nodar Khashba, a former mayor of Sukhumi
    and now a high-ranking official in the Russian Civil Defense and
    Emergencies Ministry, were denied registration by the Central Election
    Commission (CEC) after they refused to sit the Abkhaz language test and
    failed to meet residency criteria. Among the registered candidates,
    the front-runner is Raul Khadzhimba, a former prime minister. His
    running mate is Vitaly Smyr, the Abkhaz minister of agriculture and
    food. Khadzhimba has a KGB background and the endorsement of President
    Ardzinba plus rumored backing from Moscow. He also is supported by
    many divisions and bureaucrats in Abkhaz state agencies. Georgian
    commentators depict Khadzhimba as the most radically anti-Georgian
    of the candidates. Khadzhimba has already made it clear that he plans
    to make major changes to the constitution if elected. The amendments
    include giving the president the power to dissolve parliament and
    introducing parliamentary confirmation of new governments.

    United AbkhaziaSergei Bagapsh, director-general of the Chernomorenergo
    electricity company, trails Khadzhimba. Bagapsh served as prime
    minister from 1997 to 2001. He is standing as a candidate for the
    recently merged United Abkhazia movement and the Amtsakhara veterans'
    organization and is regarded as the main opposition candidate. His
    chances are thought to have increased after the disqualification
    of Aytayra movement candidate Alexander Ankvab, who, in return for
    urging Aytayra supporters to back Bagapsh, has been promised the
    post of prime minister in the event of a Bagapsh victory. Both the
    Georgian and Abkhaz media have made a point of the fact that Bagapsh
    has a Georgian wife, but remain divided over how this will affect his
    policies and popularity. Analysts speculate that a united opposition
    would decrease the chances of a Khadzhimba victory. Bagapsh's running
    mate is the historian Stanislav Lakoba. Sergei Shamba, former foreign
    minister, is running third with a platform urging "greater political,
    economic, and humanitarian" integration with Russia. Shamba has angrily
    denied rumors that he intends to pull out of the presidential race at
    the last minute and throw his support to another candidate. Shamba's
    running mate is Vladimir Arshba, head of the Ministry of Defense
    General Staff. The other two candidates concede they have slim chances
    for victory. Anri Jergenia is also a former prime minister (running
    with Ruslan Kishmaria, chairman of the Gali district administration),
    while Yakub Lakoba is leader of the Abkhaz People's Party (running
    with Fatima Kvitsinia, arbitration court judge).

    Fairness increasingly doubtfulThe fairness of the elections is
    increasingly doubtful. The CEC denied requests from the League of
    Voters for Fair Elections to serve as monitors. This NGO had severely
    criticized the CEC's performance. The CEC claimed that the election
    law contained no provision for NGOs to act as observers unless they
    have been invited to do so by the Abkhaz authorities. The UN and
    OSCE do not consider the elections legitimate and therefore will
    not send monitoring teams. Instead, members of the Russian State
    Duma and representatives from Russia's North Caucasus republics,
    South Ossetia, and Karabakh are expected to act as election
    observers. Although the Abkhaz CEC lists 165â^À^Ù 248 eligible
    voters, down from 216â^À^Ù000 in the 2002 parliamentary elections,
    Georgian sources further lower this figure to 70â^À^Ù000, due to
    widespread population shifts before and after the war. Additionally,
    most voters in Abkhazia are believed to hold Russian citizenship, and
    therefore may not be able to prove their eligibility to vote. Abkhazia
    has yet to introduce internal passports and officials are issuing
    special forms as an interim measure. Bagapsh shared his surprise that
    the CEC still did not have the exact number for Abkhazia's population
    and the number of voters. "How can you hold fair elections without
    these data?" he asked.

    Abkhazia not mentally prepared for pollMore critically minded
    commentators are pessimistic regarding the elections. Oleg Damenia,
    an Abkhaz analyst, argues that the Abkhaz electorate is not mentally
    prepared for a fair election, as its psychological makeup still
    bears Soviet-era habits. "The pre-election campaign has overstepped
    all permissible limits, and thus it's difficult to forecast whether
    the electorate would behave within the licit framework," he said.
    According to Damenia, losers will likely protest after election
    day. Candidate Shamba has warned that vote rigging would only play
    into the hands of external forces, and Abkhazia might see a replay
    of the Georgian or Yugoslav revolutions. Recently, representatives
    of the Sukhumi-based branch of Soros Foundation have dismissed some
    media allegations that the Foundation might financially support a
    "pro-Georgian" candidate. Some analysts still consider that Ardzinba's
    departure creates an opportunity to change the relationship between
    Georgia and the Abkhaz leadership. They argue that Tbilisi could take
    advantage of the struggle between the Moscow-backed Khadzhimba and
    his opponents. But the Abkhaz separatists have resolutely rejected
    any plans for reintegrating Abkhazia with Georgia. On 29 September,
    the Abkhaz Ministry of State Security claimed that Georgian task
    forces and weaponry are concentrating along the Abkhaz border,
    and it called on residents of Abkhazia to exercise vigilance. The
    ministry's special statement also claims that President Saakashvili
    directed Georgian special services to step up subversive activities
    in Abkhazia, particularly in the Georgian -populated Gali district, in
    order to provoke conflict among supporters of the Abkhaz presidential
    candidates. Tbilisi has not responded to these statements.


    This article originally appeared in Eurasia Daily Monitor,
    published by The Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC., at
    (www.Jamestown.org). Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan
    organization supported by tax-deductible contributions from
    corporations, foundations, and individuals.
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