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Eye on Eurasia: Putin's greatest fear

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  • Eye on Eurasia: Putin's greatest fear

    Eye on Eurasia: Putin's greatest fear

    Putinru.com
    05 October 2004

    Russian President Vladimir Putin warned last month that the
    post-Soviet states face "up to 2,000" potential ethno-confessional
    conflicts, any one of which could explode "if we don't do anything
    about them." Both that number and the possibility that they will
    involve violence far exceed estimates made by most Russian and Western
    analysts. But Putin's expressed belief in them highlights his sense of
    the fragility of Russia and other former Soviet republics. And it
    helps to explain his commitment to rebuilding the coercive capacity of
    the state.

    In a partial transcript of the Russian president's meeting with
    foreign academics and journalists on Sept. 6 provided by Jonathan
    Steele of The Guardian newspaper and distributed on the Johnson Russia
    List, Putin provided his clearest statement yet of just how much
    ethnic and religious conflicts threaten the post-Soviet states.

    "In the wake of the break-up of the Soviet Union, many conflicts of
    ethnic and confessional nature have broken out," Putin said, adding,
    "We do have up to 2,000 conflicts of the type which are in the dormant
    stage." But, "If we don't do anything about them, they could provide a
    flare up instantaneously."

    Putin then offered his views on why such conflicts could emerge, who
    is responsible, and the roles democracy and state power have to play
    to ensure that potential conflicts do not become real.

    The Russian president suggested that the conflicts that have broken
    out did so precisely because of the collapse of state power: Pointing
    to the violence in Karabakh and South Ossetia, Putin said that "once
    the state became weaker, separatism, which was very natural, was on
    the rise. It happened elsewhere. It happened here."

    In linking the emergence of such conflicts to the decline of state
    power, Putin explicitly rejected that Russian policies had been in any
    way responsible for what has happened in Chechnya. "There is no
    connection whatsoever, there is no connection between the policies of
    Russia regarding Chechnya and subsequent events," he said.

    The Russian leader indicated that the free play of democracy could not
    by itself prevent ethnic and confessional flare-ups. Indeed, democracy
    introduced too quickly or in ways that are not "in conformity with the
    development of society" could in that event be "carrying a destructive
    element."

    Consequently, Putin said, he and his government will "see to it" that
    democratic institutions in his country become ever more "efficient"
    and work closely with those institutions that are rebuilding the power
    of state rather than weakening them.

    Three aspects of Putin's remarks are striking. First, he views his
    country and its neighbors as far more threatened by ethnic and
    religious conflicts than almost any other leader or analyst does. And
    he sees conflicts as potentially having a domino effect, in which the
    outbreak of any conflict anywhere threatens to spark more conflicts
    elsewhere.

    Second, the Russian president clearly believes that the weakness of
    the state rather than the aspirations of the people involved is the
    primary cause of current conflicts and of future ones.

    And third, he sees democracy as a a form of government that may
    trigger such conflicts rather than as a means of managing or even
    solving them. Consequently, democracy for Putin is a system that must
    be managed lest democratic arrangements "undermine through
    counterproductive means" the ideas of democracy.

    This set of views helps to explain why Putin is so obsessed with the
    restoration of the agencies of state power, why he is unwilling to
    deal with these challenges in a political way, and why he views
    democracy as a threat rather than an opportunity.

    But the experience of authoritarian states, including the Soviet
    Union, suggests, Putin's approach -- however understandable it may be
    given his premises -- may prove counterproductive, radicalizing those
    whose views the authorities are not prepared to listen to and making
    them more rather than less willing to turn to violence to gain their
    ends.


    Source: The Washington Times

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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