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  • Tensions mount by the shores of the Black Sea

    Tensions mount by the shores of the Black Sea
    The struggle between East and West is set to envelop the entire region
    during the coming year

    DOUG SAUNDERS
    January 2, 2008

    If, in the coming year, you find yourself relaxing on the beach in the
    Bulgarian resort of Bourgas on Europe's little-noticed east coast, you
    may soon realize that you are in the centre of one of the world's most
    lavish and portentous conflicts, one that involves a dozen countries
    and the nuclear powers of the Cold War and is likely to produce
    explosions in 2008.
    Look up the coast, just to the north, and you will see U.S. bombers
    and surveillance planes taking off in increasing numbers from
    Bulgarian and Romanian seaside bases as the U.S. and NATO militaries
    shift their major installations
    From Germany to locations along the formerly communist Black Sea
    coast. In 2008, a year after the European Union added Bulgaria and
    Romania, two former Warsaw Pact nations, to its membership, NATO will
    make its most aggressive bids to win over the rest of the region. The
    North Atlantic Treaty Organization's annual conference will be held
    near the sea in Romania, and the most explosive item on the agenda
    will be the proposed membership of Georgia - a Black Sea country that,
    if it joins, will expand the territory of this Cold War military
    alliance to the deep interior of the former Soviet Union.
    Moscow is already reacting with anger to the expanding presence of
    NATO on these shores, which had previously been entirely within
    Russia's sphere of influence (only Turkey has traditionally been a
    NATO member). Half a dozen "frozen conflicts" in Georgia, Ukraine,
    Azerbaijan and Moldova appear ready to erupt into full-scale secession
    wars in the coming year; in every case, the militant movements appear
    to have Russian backing.
    For the 100 million people who live around the shores of the Black
    Sea, 2008 may well feel like a return to the Cold War. This time,
    though, it's not clear which side any nation, any region or any people
    are on: Like South America or Southeast Asia during that previous
    Washington-Moscow standoff, the Black Sea region has become an
    endlessly contested ground, subject to shifting influences as money
    and weapons are dumped into unsuspecting populations.
    In recent years, that conflict has played itself out most visibly in
    Ukraine, whose elections have been dramatic showdowns between
    Russian-supported forces and Western-backed democracy movements. This
    year ended with pro-Western Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who took
    office on Dec. 18, accusing Moscow of actively funding the
    opposition's parties.
    The struggle between East and West is about to envelop the entire
    Black Sea region during the coming year, often with military
    implications.
    The sparring is likely to begin as early as Saturday, when Georgia's
    five million citizens go to the polls in a presidential election and a
    referendum on the country's proposed NATO membership. The vote was
    called after weeks of violent mass demonstrations in November against
    pro-American president Mikheil Saakashvili. The demonstrations, which
    Mr. Saakashvili and a number of outside organizations say were backed
    by Russia, were met with brutal police repression. Georgia, like
    Ukraine, appears to be divided in half between voters who support the
    European Union and NATO and those who prefer a return to Moscow's
    influence.
    But there are even deeper divisions in Georgia, and in a number of its
    Black Sea neighbours. Breakaway regions, which hope to form their own
    nations - usually because their people are more loyal to Russia - have
    seen low-level conflicts fraught with occasional bombings and acts of
    violence for years. In 2008, any one of them could become full-scale
    war.
    Georgia's troubled regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have become
    increasingly violent in recent months, their independence movements
    staging bolder attacks against government facilities. Neighbouring
    Azerbaijan has had growing frictions in its region of
    Nagorno-Karabakh. And on the other side of the Black Sea, the Moldovan
    breakaway region of Transnistria, which is loyal to Russia, has seen
    increasing tensions.
    These landlocked slivers of Black Sea real estate could well become
    conflict zones this year, for reasons rooted in another landlocked
    country that lies closer to the Adriatic Sea. In late January or early
    February, the Serbian province of Kosovo is likely to declare
    independence, an act that is backed by the European Union and the
    United States.
    Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if Serbia, a
    Slavic-speaking country, loses its disputed Albanian-majority province
    to Western influences, it will have a hard time guaranteeing the
    integrity of Georgia and Moldova. Many observers see this as a thinly
    veiled threat: If Kosovo goes, then so goes Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
    Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria. Some observers already say that
    arms are flowing into these breakaway regions.
    "The chance of some kind of armed flare-up in at least one of those
    conflict zones in the coming year is disturbingly high," says Thomas
    de Waal, an expert on the Caucasus at the Institute for War and Peace
    Reporting. "The consequences could be catastrophic."
    Why are Brussels, Washington and Moscow devoting so much time, money
    and armaments to a stretch of shoreline that has previously languished
    in uneasy obscurity? Some of it has to do with geography: Georgia,
    Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan sit near the border of Iran, and there
    is a strong desire to have a Western-loyal buffer of nations and
    defence installations surrounding this constant site of conflict.
    Another reason might become visible if you sit long enough on the
    beach in Bourgas.
    Further out to sea, you might spot Russian ships laying an enormous
    undersea pipeline, known as South Stream, that will carry billions of
    cubic metres of natural gas from Russia, across the 900-kilometre
    width of the Black Sea to Bulgaria, and on to energy-hungry Western
    Europe.
    And just behind you, running up the Bulgarian shore, will be the tail
    end of South Stream's Western-funded competitor, known as Nabucco,
    which carries equally enormous amounts of gas from Iran and Central
    Asia through Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey before it
    supplies Europe. These pipelines, carrying Europe's Russian fuel
    supply and its hard-fought Iranian alternative, provide the economic
    backdrop for this set of emerging conflicts.
    Europe is enormously reliant on Russian gas and oil to heat its homes
    - some countries, such as Germany and Italy, are so completely
    dependent that they would face an immediate crisis if the pipelines
    from Russia were curtailed. (This occurred briefly in 2006, during a
    dispute between Russia and Belarus over pipeline rights, and caused a
    sizable shock.) As a result, the supplies of petroleum and gas from
    the Adriatic Sea through Azerbaijan and from Iran are considered
    vital. (This is an important reason why the EU has been reluctant to
    participate fully in sanctions against Iran over alleged nuclear
    weapons activity.)
    So much of this dispute - though not all of it, as some would suggest
    - is rooted in the West's need for energy security. If non-Russian
    sources of fuel are to be securely provided, then the loyalty of the
    countries to the east, south and west of the Black Sea is vital. From
    Moscow's perspective, if its continued dominance is to be maintained
    (and good prices upheld for its supplies), then pipelines will need to
    pass through the west, north and east of the Black Sea.
    Some countries, notably Bulgaria and Romania, stand to benefit either
    way: Both Adriatic-Iranian oil pipelines and Russia's new pipes will
    enter Europe through their impoverished territory.
    As you relax on the beige sands of Bourgas - an increasingly popular
    vacation getaway for both Central Europeans and for Russians - these
    rising tensions might be visible along the shoreline and across the
    water. But they're likely to seem especially bizarre when you return
    to your hotel, which is almost certain to have EU flags flying on its
    awning - and to be owned by Russian tycoons.
    *****
    The push for independence
    Autonomous aspirations of these three Black Sea regions threaten to
    flare up in the coming year. TRANSNISTRIA, MOLDOVA A sliver of land on
    the Nistria River, Transnistria broke away from Moldova in September
    of 1990. A brief war killed hundreds before Russian troops
    intervened. The region of 550,000 people is dominated by
    Russian-speaking Slavs, who pressed for independence fearing Moldova's
    Romanian-speaking majority would one day join Romania to the
    south. Around 1,200 Russian troops remain. Transnistria covers
    one-eighth of Moldovan territory but is home to the bulk of Moldova's
    industrial base.
    ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA, GEORGIA Home to 200,000 people, Abkhazia
    is sandwiched between the Black Sea and the Caucasus Mountains and was
    once a renowned tourist destination. It fought a 1992-93 war against
    Georgia and effectively rules itself. It was isolated for years after
    the war but has since forged closer ties with Russia, which has given
    Abkhaz residents passports and pensions. South Ossetia fought to throw
    off Georgian rule in the early 1990s. A ceasefire was signed but the
    violence has threatened to reignite. Russia has peacekeepers in both
    regions.
    NAGORNO-KARABAKH,
    AZERBAIJAN
    Sporadic clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azeri and local ethnic
    Armenian irregulars began in 1998, escalating by 1992 into full-scale
    hostilities between Azeri forces and troops from Armenia. About 35,000
    people died and hundreds of thousands fled before a ceasefire was
    signed in 1994. The territory remains part of Azerbaijan but is
    controlled by Armenian forces. A major BP-led pipeline linking
    Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea oil fields to world markets passes a few
    kilometres from the conflict zone.
    Source: Reuters News Agency
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