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  • Georgia's bargaining chip

    The Messenger

    Georgia's English Language Daily

    Thursday, November 4, 2004, #210 (0734)


    Georgia's bargaining chip

    On Monday and Tuesday Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze visited
    Moscow in an additional attempt to clarify the relationship between the
    two countries. She demanded that Russia take "concrete steps" relating
    to its oft-stated support of Georgian territorial integrity, but Moscow
    officials replied that it was Georgia which had failed to take concrete
    steps on previously agreed issues.

    Georgian-Russian relations are of vital importance to Georgia, not least
    because of the role Russia plays in Georgia's frozen conflicts in
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Burjanadze stressed that as long as
    Georgian-Russian relations do not improve, all attempts to resolve
    current problems are pointless.

    But despite the speaker's best attempts to come to an agreement with the
    Russian side, there was little progress made during her visit. "The
    sides have not advanced yet," Sakartvelos Respublika quotes Secretary of
    the Russian Security Council Igot Ivanov as saying after his meeting
    with Burjanadze.

    Particularly on the issues of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, there was
    little sign that Moscow is about to change its stance. Burjanadze stated
    categorically that Russia must fulfill its promises and must deny the
    separatist regimes its support, but although Russian Minister of Foreign
    Affairs Sergei Lavrov promised that Russia would actively support the
    resolution of the conflicts, his statement merely echoed many other
    similar declarations over the years - declarations that have rarely been
    followed up by "concrete steps."

    Lavrov underlined the importance of dialogue between the sides, saying
    "the 'frozen' conflicts in Georgia must not be allowed to become 'hot,'"
    but realistically there seems little possibility of productive dialogue
    leading to a resolution of the conflicts with Russia as mediator. There
    is an ongoing need for a greater internationalization of the peace
    process, something to which Moscow remains opposed.

    Not only is international mediation required in the negotiation process,
    but international peacekeepers on the ground as well. In South Ossetia,
    weapons and paramilitaries continue to move freely into the separatist
    republic, while shootings towards ethnically Georgian villages have not
    diminished. The Russian peacekeepers seem powerless to prevent this,
    suggesting the need for the bolstering of its peacekeeping forces with
    troops from other countries. However, to achieve this, Georgia must not
    only persuade Moscow and Tskhinvali to accept other peacekeepers, but
    other countries to provide them.

    Abkhazia's conflict with Georgia has, meanwhile, taken a backseat to
    internal conflict following the disputed October 3 presidential
    elections, and there is ongoing concern that the situation could further
    destabilize, despite the meeting this week in Moscow of the CEC-declared
    winner Sergey Baghapshi and Moscow's favored candidate, former prime
    minister Raul Khadjimba.

    Burjanadze expressed the Georgian government's dissatisfaction with the
    meeting in Moscow, and stated that Russia should not call any elections
    democratic when two-thirds of the electorate have been exiled; but her
    complaints went largely unheard.

    Instead, Russian officials' talks with the speaker of Parliament were
    focused on the reopening of rail links between Russia and the Caucasus,
    via Abkhazia. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan support this initiative, which
    would have a positive economic impact on the economy of the whole South
    Caucasus, but the Georgian government is unwilling to agree to the
    restoration of the Tbilisi-Sokhumi section of the line without agreement
    to the return of Georgian refugees to the Abkhaz district of Gali.

    The Georgian side remains distinctly displeased that Russia reopened the
    Rusisia-Abkhazia leg of the railway in September, arguing that in doing
    so it violated the 2002 Sochi agreement signed by Putin and
    Shevardnadze, which envisaged the restoration of the railway happening
    simultaneously with the return of refugees. Nevertheless, Prime Minister
    Zurab Zhvania announced on Monday that he had agreed in principle to the
    restoration of the railway, adding however that this is currently
    impossible owing to the instability in Abkhazia.

    Aside from the issue of refugees, the Georgian government is in a
    quandary regarding the railway, because while it would provide a
    significant boost to the Georgian economy (it has been calculated that
    it could add as much as USD 200 million to the Georgian budget), the
    railway could have a corresponding effect on the Abkhaz economy, perhaps
    decreasing even further the possibility of Abkhazia's reintegration with
    Georgia. the government fears further that the rail link might create
    further problems, similar to those posed by the Roki tunnel connecting
    North with South Ossetia.

    The railway is an important bargaining chip for Georgia, as its
    restoration would benefit both Russia and Russia's strategic partner
    Armenia. The government will be unwilling to play it without a
    significant return, not least because other bargaining chips are few and
    far between.

    ---
    http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/0734_november_4_2004/opinion_0734.htm
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