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Global Insight
March 6, 2008
Substantial Military Clash at Nagorno-Karabakh Echoes Armenia's
Political Troubles
by: Natalia Leshchenko
The simmering conflict on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh resurfaced
on Tuesday (4 March), when Armenian and Azeri border patrols clashed
in one of the most violent disputes since the start of the ceasefire
in 1994. The governments blame each other's forces for the ongoing
shootings along the north-western part of the border, which have left
between four and 16 soldiers dead, according to varying figures
published by the governments. So far, it has been difficult to
establish independently what triggered the conflicts, although it is
clearly related to the ongoing political instability in Armenia (see
Armenia: 5 March 2008: ).
Significance:The Armenian president predictably scorned the clash in
Nagorno-Karabakh, but it proves a mixed blessing for him and
president-elect Serzh Sargsyan as this distracts the population from
challenging Sargsyan's appointment, in the face of a perceived threat
to the whole country. Both the Russian and the U.S. governments have
warned the Azeri and Armenian governments of encouraging an
escalation of the border conflict. The Russian Foreign Ministry
called on the countries to revert to the ceasefire agreements, whilst
the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state Matthew Bryza will raise
the issue during his visit to the disputing parties in Armenia.
Global Insight continues watching developments in Armenia with the
view of increasing the country's political risk rating.
March 6, 2008
Substantial Military Clash at Nagorno-Karabakh Echoes Armenia's
Political Troubles
by: Natalia Leshchenko
The simmering conflict on the region of Nagorno-Karabakh resurfaced
on Tuesday (4 March), when Armenian and Azeri border patrols clashed
in one of the most violent disputes since the start of the ceasefire
in 1994. The governments blame each other's forces for the ongoing
shootings along the north-western part of the border, which have left
between four and 16 soldiers dead, according to varying figures
published by the governments. So far, it has been difficult to
establish independently what triggered the conflicts, although it is
clearly related to the ongoing political instability in Armenia (see
Armenia: 5 March 2008: ).
Significance:The Armenian president predictably scorned the clash in
Nagorno-Karabakh, but it proves a mixed blessing for him and
president-elect Serzh Sargsyan as this distracts the population from
challenging Sargsyan's appointment, in the face of a perceived threat
to the whole country. Both the Russian and the U.S. governments have
warned the Azeri and Armenian governments of encouraging an
escalation of the border conflict. The Russian Foreign Ministry
called on the countries to revert to the ceasefire agreements, whilst
the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state Matthew Bryza will raise
the issue during his visit to the disputing parties in Armenia.
Global Insight continues watching developments in Armenia with the
view of increasing the country's political risk rating.