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  • BEIRUT: Christian Parties May Realign Ahead Of 2009 Vote

    CHRISTIAN PARTIES MAY REALIGN AHEAD OF 2009 VOTE
    Mona Alami

    The Daily Star, Lebanon
    May 1 2008

    Murr's rift with Aoun could usher in power shift in upcoming
    parliamentary elections

    BEIRUT: The ongoing political crisis gripping Lebanon has chipped away
    at what has been viewed by most since the 2005 parliamentary elections
    as an unlikely alignment of two political heavyweights. The recent
    falling out between Michel Aoun, head of the Christian Free Patriotic
    Movement (FPM) and Michel Murr, the Greek Orthodox former vice Prime
    Minister, heralds a change that will undoubtedly affect the 2009
    electoral landscape in the predominantly Christian region of the Metn.

    Inexplicable alliances have long been a tradition of Lebanese politics,
    defined by short-sighted tactical partnerships rooted in the intense
    rivalry of opposing parties, communities and political families. Such
    alliances have played a key role in the struggle for power among the
    various Christian factions.

    The Christian Phalange Party and the Lebanese Forces - led by former
    President Amine Gemayel and Samir Geagea respectively - joined forces
    in the 2005 elections with the largely Sunni Future Movement (headed
    by Saad Hariri, son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri)
    and the Progressive Socialist Party headed by Druze leader Walid
    Jumblatt. To strengthen their position at the ballot box, these four
    parties, along with other smaller factions, joined forces with two
    political heavyweights, the predominantly Shiite groups Hizbullah
    (headed by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah) and Amal (headed by Parliament
    Speaker Nabih Berri). The coalition, known as the Quadripartite
    alliance, ran on the same electoral list during the 2005 vote, and
    triumphed at the polls. The alliance later unravelled.

    What now remains of the electoral coalition is a loose alliance diverse
    parties known as the March 14 Movement. The March 14 alliance currently
    holds a majority in Parliament, with 67 out 128 seats.

    After resigning from the government in November of 2006, Hizbullah
    and Amal joined the opposition, which includes the FPM. Since the
    ministers' resignation, the two sides have failed to reach a compromise
    on the balance of power in government. The power struggle intensified
    in November of 2007, when President Emile Lahoud stepped down at the
    end of his term. The presidential seat, traditionally occupied by a
    Maronite Christian, has remained empty since then.

    In fact, the postponement of presidential elections 19 times thus
    far has incited Murr to warn Christian MPs who abstained from voting
    that they might not be re-elected. "Christians should not be lied to;
    under the false pretence of defending the rights of their community,
    presidential elections are being blocked," he said.

    "Murr believes presidential elections should take place as soon as
    possible, while the FPM links elections to a basket of measures, such
    as agreement on the future cabinet composition and the replacement
    of the inequitable 2001 parliamentary law," said Armenian MP Hagop
    Pakradounian.

    So, what does the growing rift between Murr and Aoun over the
    appointment of a president mean for the 2009 elections? The battle
    for power in the Metn pits the Phalange party and LF against the FPM,
    which is joined by a few independents, including Murr. The impact of
    Murr's defection from the opposition can be measured by his political
    weight in the area, which affects the outcome of eight parliamentary
    seats: four Maronite positions, two Greek Orthodox, one Catholic and
    one Armenian.

    Research shows that participation of voters has been customarily low
    in the area, as is the case with the rest of the country. According
    to statistician Kamal Feghali, 51.2 percent of registered voters
    participated in the 2005 elections, in which Murr gained 20,000
    votes. In the 2007 by-elections (prompted by the assassination of
    Phalange MP Pierre Gemayel), 47.2 percent of voters participated,
    with 15,600 votes for Murr.

    "There are currently four independent members of Parliament, of
    which three are allied with the FPM - Pakradounian, Selim Salhab
    and Ghassan Moukheiber - while the fourth is Michel Murr. Four other
    seats are occupied by FPM deputies," explained Alain Aoun from the
    opposition FPM.

    According to Alain Aoun, Murr's new position will be restricted to
    the Metn and will not affect national elections. "It is too early
    to measure the exact repercussions of this new realignment on the
    political landscape. The disagreement between Mr. Murr and the FPM
    might dissipate before the 2009 elections, as long as the political
    discourse remains toned down," he pointed out, adding that the
    political context in 2009 will ultimately define the outcome of the
    next parliamentary elections.

    Another factor that could disrupt the balance of power in the Metn is
    the Armenian vote. "Armenian voters represent some 12,000 votes in the
    Metn, of which our party, Tashnag, traditionally garners 80 percent,"
    explained Pakradounian.

    "Murr's recent change of heart does guarantee his realignment with the
    majority," said Pakradounian. "I think his main objective is to exert
    enough pressure to resolve the deadlock and accelerate presidential
    elections. My belief is that he is still trying to find a common
    denominator between the opposition and majority.

    "We maintain excellent relations with both Gen. Aoun and President
    Murr, who are our allies, and their disagreement may be short-lived,"
    he added.

    While Tashnag's alliance with Michel Murr is more than 44 years old,
    Pakradounian said that General Aoun has also frequently proven his
    loyalty to the Armenian party by refusing to participate in the
    cabinet in the absence of the Tashnag. - with The Daily Star
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