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The fate of the last Russian base in Azerbaijan undecided

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  • The fate of the last Russian base in Azerbaijan undecided

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    December 1, 2004, Wednesday

    THE FATE OF THE LAST RUSSIAN BASE IN AZERBAIJAN UNDECIDED

    SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, November 29, 2004, p. 11

    by Rauf Mirkadyrov

    RUMORS ON THE UPCOMING APPEARANCE OF AMERICAN MILITARY BASES IN
    AZERBAIJAN PUT WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN MILITARY OBJECTS FROM THE
    COUNTRY INTO THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION

    The Gabala radar installation, the only Russian military object left
    on the territory of Azerbaijan, is in jeopardy. National parliament
    demanded a revision of the terms of lease more than once already. Not
    long ago, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Ecology announced that it would
    monitor the effect of electromagnetic emanation from the installation
    on environment and the population. PR Department of the Russian Space
    Force immediately released a statement to the effect that the
    emanation was well within the established norms. Unfortunately, local
    environmentalists claim quite the opposite. It should be noted here
    that all these organizations exist on grants from Western, mostly
    American, trusts. Citing their findings, environmentalists claim that
    the Gabala radar has a negative effect on nature and health of the
    population.

    Even parliamentarians joined the campaign - mostly deputies of the
    ruling party and that is not something that could happen without an
    encouraging nod from the very top. Deputy Dzhangir Guseinov demanded
    an answer from defense minister to the question concerning the rumors
    that officers of Armenian origin were assigned to the Gabala
    installation. The lawmaker called it unacceptable even if the
    officers in question were in fact citizens of Russia. Other
    parliamentarians and a substantial part of society backed Guseinov.

    Well-informed sources claim that a new campaign for the closure of
    Gabala was initiated by upper echelons of the Defense Ministry of
    Azerbaijan. Allegedly, the matter of leasing the installation to
    Russia was settled without the opinion of the Defense Ministry taken
    into account, and an insiders claim that the Defense Ministry always
    objected to the idea. The fact that the campaign was inspired by the
    Defense Ministry is quite indicative. Defense Minister Safar Abiyev
    is known as the man who would not do anything without looking over
    his shoulder at the United States first.

    Sure, official Baku may allegedly find itself under the pressure of
    some domestic and, more importantly, external factors sufficiently
    serious to initiate negotiations with Russia over liquidation of the
    military object. "Electronic equipment may be dismantled and
    withdrawn. But it is not the electronics that is valuable in this
    particularly case (the electronics in question is fairly outdated
    now), it is the building itself as a construction. It cannot be
    dismantled. It can only be blown up, destroyed in the manner an
    analogous object was destroyed in Latvia," independent military
    expert Dzhasur Mamedov said.

    It does not even matter that Russia did not pay all its debts for the
    use of the Gabala station before the signing of the lease accord for
    a decade (it came into effect in 2002). Russia is paying only $7
    million a year for the installation. Meanwhile, Moscow pledged to pay
    $30 million worth of electricity bills for between 1992 and 2002. It
    has not got down to it yet.

    Azerbaijan has all legal grounds to initiate negotiations over
    liquidation of the Gabala installation. About a year ago, its
    parliament passed a law on national security expressly forbidding
    foreign military bases on the territory of the country.

    Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedov told this correspondent
    that the Gabala station operates under the lease accord between the
    two states and viewing it as a military base is a mistake. As far as
    Russia and Azerbaijan are concerned, he said, Gabala is a center of
    information and analysis leased by Russia on the basis of an
    agreement between our governments.

    All the same, Azerbaijan may call Gabala a foreign military base and
    initiate liquidation talks at literally any moment.

    In the last 30 years or so first the USSR and the US and then Russia
    and America signed a series of strategic arms limitation (SALT-I and
    II), strategic offensive arms restriction (START-I and II), and
    ballistic missile defense systems restriction (Ballistic Missile
    Defense Treaty) accords. Said Mamedov, "These accords stipulated a
    restriction of missiles with nuclear warheads and abolition of some
    early warning radar stations including the Gabala and Latvian ones.
    The station in Latvia was blown up, and the sides "forgot" about
    Gabala - they probably agreed to. In any case, the provision
    concerning elimination of the Gabala installation was never fulfilled
    even though the sides never annulled it. Formally, the United States
    will be quite within its rights demanding fulfillment of the clause
    from Russia."

    So, Azerbaijan has enough formal excuses for initiation of the
    liquidation talks. But why bring up the matter at this point
    precisely?

    Political scientist Metin Yasharoglu does not think that the American
    military will want to be neighbors of the Russians no matter on what
    pretext they are deployed in Azerbaijan. Reports appeared in the
    Western media not long ago that Washington began consultations with
    official Baku over the use of the territory of Azerbaijan for strikes
    against Iran. Bearing in mind that Moscow is highly unlikely to
    support Washington's idea, the future of the Gabala station becomes
    clear: The United States will never permit"enemy" radar behind its
    lines.

    Yasharoglu says that this turn of events is quite plausible. "Iranian
    Foreign Minister Harrazi announced that Tehran accepted all IAEA
    demands and abandonment of the uranium-enrichment program as soon as
    the reports on strikes at Iran from the territory of Azerbaijan
    appeared. President of Iran Hatami called Ilham Aliyev on the phone
    on two occasions in the last month," the expert said. "Shortly before
    that, Tehran has finally settled the matter of opening the consulate
    of Azerbaijan in Tebriz, the matter that defied a solution for a
    decade. So, Iran is making advances to official Baku on the one hand,
    and trying to gauge the mood in the upper echelons of Azerbaijan on
    the other."

    Moreover, the Gabala radar is not going to be dismantled in the near
    future because Aliyev looks up at Russia. Experts say that Vladimir
    Putin has some leverage against Azerbaijani leaders.
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