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Dec 17 2004: The Day The Euro Council Lost the Eu Peoples Confidence

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  • Dec 17 2004: The Day The Euro Council Lost the Eu Peoples Confidence

    Newropeans Magazine, France
    Dec 2 2004

    December 17th 2004: the day the European Council lost the EU people's
    confidence ?
    - 2nd Part -

    by Franck Biancheri

    Summarizing bluntly the situation, to give people of the European
    Union and of Turkey a signal that Turkey may be member of the EU in
    the coming two decades would a dramatic political mistake for the EU
    as well as for Turkey. First because it will be a lie (whatever
    political scenario is adopted there is no way a majority of EU
    citizens will accept such a membership in the next 20 years; all
    trends are going in the opposite direction); second because it would
    prevent the EU to push EU-Turkey relations into the only available
    constructive option for decades to come: to integrate Turkey within
    the new EU Neighbourhood policy.

    So, our leaders' main preoccupation on December 17th should be to
    keep open this option for the short term future (in 4/5 years it will
    obviously become THE only possible way to move forward for EU/turkey
    relations)* because they have to deal with a huge backlog of lies
    from our side (essentially the last 40 years of EU leaders and
    institutions declarations); and because at this stage, Turkish
    leadership and elites have still not yet understood what the EU
    really is.

    For having done many conferences in Turkey in the past twelve years,
    I have noticed that essentially the Turkish positions have not
    changed a bit, while in the meantime the EU has drastically changed.
    For instance, they keep on believing that there will be genuine
    `negotiations' between them and the EU for the accession; while
    everybody in the EU knows that there will be nothing close to that:
    Turkey will have to adopt the `acquis communautaire' and will be
    obliged to comply `in practice' (not just in theory) with all EU
    legal, political, social constraints. Full stop. So rather than
    playing the negative process** such as `let's the Turks discover the
    `hard way' that they do not want to get in the EU because they are
    not ready to change up to the extent the EU will require', our
    leaders should really make clear from the conditions before
    negotiations even start that the path will be extremely tough. For
    instance, in no ways should it be allowed for Turkey to even think
    starting negotiations without having beforehand recognized Cyprus
    (one of the current 25 EU members); neither without having `cleaned'
    his own past and recognized the Armenian genocide. Beyond Turkey, our
    leaders must also know that the lack of such pre-conditions will just
    increase EU voters' feeling that they should oppose our leaders'
    vision of Europe's future. Such a feeling will drastically increase
    the abstention and No votes in the referenda on the EU constitution.

    Speaking of referenda, our leaders will also be wise to acknowledge
    the fact that most probably a large number of EU Member states would
    in the end generate referenda on any possible Turkish membership***;
    most probably under public opinion pressure, and with support of the
    political forces opposed to the accession of Turkey (both will
    largely dominate the EU political scene of the coming years).

    To conclude, if the Council is not able to decide in a way that
    answers Turkish leaders' call for recognition as being a full partner
    (and the possibility to be a partner is part of that request; much
    more than the candid will to become a true member of the EU) while
    clearly indicating the minimum pre-negotiations necessary steps
    (Cyprus, Armenian genocide) and indicating the way for the
    alternative of relation anchored within EU neighbourhood policy, then
    the Council will lose its credibility as embodying the EU's general
    interest.

    The Commission already lost it on October 6th; the Parliament never
    had it. For the sake of EU's future Constitution, let's hope that our
    national leaders will be aware that their collective ability to
    resist Ankara's pressure will definitely determine EU's political
    future.

    Not because Turkey will join or not. It will not. But because the
    xenophobic, populist and extremist political forces will find new
    strengths if our leaders are not up to the challenge; and in the
    process will help defeat the Constitution project.

    * The fact that the European Parliament's Commission on Foreign
    affairs just recommended the contrary is another proof that this is
    the only correct choice. The Parliament is run by a coalition of
    parties (PSE and EPP) which together did not even represent 30% of
    European voters (as from EU elections of June 2004) and where
    decisions are not made following voters expectations but through
    lobbying and internal compromises. At least it cannot loose public
    credibility, because it never got it.
    ** I suspect that a large number of our current political leaders and
    Eurocrats are betting that Turkey will be obliged to stop on its way
    to accession because of the impossible challenge it will represent to
    its structure and culture.
    *** France is far from being the only country which will go this way.
    As soon as France will officially go for it, it is certain that many
    other countries will find entitled to do so.


    http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/edito/2004/021204.php
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