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Presidential adviser expects no "apricot revolution" in Armenia

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  • Presidential adviser expects no "apricot revolution" in Armenia

    Presidential adviser expects no "apricot revolution" in Armenia

    Ayots Ashkar, Yerevan
    2 Dec 04


    There will be no "apricot revolution" in Armenia, as there is no real
    alternative to the incumbent authorities, the president's security
    adviser has said. Garnik Isagulyan said that the former ruling party,
    the Armenian Pan-National Movement, was the real opposition and was
    gradually trying to move out of the shadows. "The tragedy of the APNM
    is that it does not have a leader accepted by the people," Isagulyan
    said, adding that society did not support the APNM's Levon
    Ter-Petrosyan, Armenia's former president. The following is the text
    of Vahan Vardanyan's interview with Isagulyan published in Armenian
    newspaper Ayots Ashkar on 2 December and headlined "There will be no
    revolution"; subheadings inserted editorially:

    An interview with the Armenian president's adviser on security issues,
    Garnik Isagulyan.

    [Ayots Ashkar correspondent] The opposition thinks that the Karabakh
    issue will soon become a centre of confrontation. Do you agree with
    this view?

    [Garnik Isagulyan] Armenia is multipolar and multilayered in its
    foreign policy. We do not have the objective of being an appendage of
    one superpower against another and it is senseless to search for
    external signals of a power change. As for the Karabakh issue, the
    policy of today's authorities cannot be seen as anything but positive
    by any Armenian who worries about the national interests.

    Victory of "orange revolution" would divide Ukraine

    [Correspondent] Mr Isagulyan, against the background of the events
    taking place in Ukraine views are expressed in Armenia that Yerevan
    will be the next refuge of the "orange revolution". How possible is
    this?

    [Isagulyan] Indeed, it seems to become a tradition immediately to
    compare the processes of any post-Soviet country with Armenia. That
    happened in the case of the Georgian "rose revolution", now it is
    happening with Ukraine. The Ukrainian events showed that the fight is
    not in the name of democracy, but between the superpowers and, because
    of these actions, the country is divided into two parts. Incidentally,
    the majority of the country's industry, the entire coastline with
    ports, that is 80 per cent of the economy, is centred in the
    southeastern regions that have a pro-Russian orientation and where
    millions of Russians live. For this reason the victory of the "orange
    revolution" in Ukraine will at best lead to the gradual separation of
    the country and at worst to civil war, which we should not be happy
    about or use as a model.

    Armenian authorities and people not at loggerheads

    [Correspondent] Nevertheless against this background the opposition
    has stepped up its activity to a certain degree in Armenia.

    [Isagulyan] We saw them step up their activity more seriously in the
    2003 elections as well as in the first part of this year. We also know
    the slogans on which the opposition tried to base the need for a power
    change and they failed. This does not mean that there are no problems
    in the country, the authorities are trying to resolve them
    gradually. Simply in its turn the opposition did not put forward an
    alternative programme. On the other hand, Armenia is a monoethnic
    country. Unlike Ukraine and Georgia, power at the top and the state
    structures are strong enough. And finally, there is no urgent problem
    over which the authorities and the public are taking opposing
    positions.

    Ter-Petrosyan not accepted by public

    [Correspondent] The fact that [ex-President] Levon Ter-Petrosyan broke
    his long silence is viewed as an external, western signal. By the way,
    he mentioned in his interview that the stage-by-stage option for a
    Karabakh settlement, put forward in 1997, was the best and that in
    future we will not gain anything more.

    [Isagulyan] It would be surprising if the former president said
    anything different, because that would mean abandoning his positions
    expressed in the well-known "War or Peace" article. As for the option
    of 1997, it foresaw the unconditional capitulation of the liberated
    territories to Azerbaijan without specification of Karabakh's
    status. It was clear from different statements of the president that
    they expected to leave Karabakh within Azerbaijan. Let nobody dispute
    that we can reach this worst scenario at any moment and without Levon
    Ter-Petrosyan. Today if we suggest the same to Azerbaijan, they will
    agree with pleasure. Who will not agree without any effort to get what
    he lost forever? I see no trend in the former president's
    interview. His meetings with the political elite of different
    countries do not at all mean that the West foresees any action to
    return him to politics.

    [Correspondent] In that case how do you explain the trend of the
    opposition stepping up its activity? Maybe with the help of new
    slogans, new ideas and a new composition they hope that the people
    will follow them.

    [Isagulyan] I have mentioned many times that in Armenia the Armenian
    Pan-National Movement [APNM] is the real opposition, it rules all the
    other developments from the shadows. Today the APNM is trying to leave
    the shadows gradually, as it sees no other force that can take the
    flag of the opposition. Simply the tragedy of the APNM is that it does
    not have a leader accepted by the people. On the whole it has nobody
    except Ter-Petrosyan. Our society's attitude towards Ter-Petrosyan is
    known. Nobody has forgotten the cold and dark years.

    No "apricot revolution" in Armenia

    One of the leaders of the opposition said once that, as the apricot is
    the most Armenian fruit, our revolution will be the "apricot
    revolution". I think that there is no ground for an "apricot
    revolution", as there is no real alternative to the present
    authorities that has a programme, the people's trust and has not been
    already compromised.
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