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Zerkalo, Azerbaijan
Aug 15 2008
Will Georgian example prove contagious?
In our politicians' opinion, with its actions, Russia has demonstrated that it is an aggressor
The results of the Russian-Georgian military stand-off are very important for the negotiations on the issue of Nagornyy Karabakh. Zeyno Baran, director of Hudson's Centre for Eurasian Policy, said this in an interview to the Voice of America radio station. In her view, the events that are unfolding in Georgia, make the issue of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity a topical one.
Expecting "positive effect"
Thus, [opposition] Musavat Party Chairman Isa Qambar believes that the events in Georgia are affecting not only the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict but the general situation in the region as well. "It is too early to say whether the influence will be positive or negative since the process itself has not yet been completed. But, overall, I think that the processes that are unfolding in Georgia will have a positive effect on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict," Qambar said.
According to Qambar, the Russian authorities have fully exposed their true nature with their actions. "Official Moscow has once again demonstrated that it is not going to give up on its previous imperialist ambitions and intends to carry out aggressive policy," the Musavat party chairman said.
Our respondent noted that the democratic world has come to better understand that one should not be pinning hopes on Russia's assistance in the issue of settling the territorial integrity problems in the countries of the South Caucasus. "The West has realized that Russia is not an element of stability in the region but, on the contrary, a factor facilitating destabilization. Based on this, I think that the influence of the Georgian events on the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict will be positive," he underscored.
Indeed, Russia has fully exposed its true nature. And this nature lies with the fact that official Moscow is openly supporting separatism, in spite of the norms of international law. In his case, a reasonable question arises: how can a country which supports separatist regimes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia be a mediator in peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?
Note that Russia is one of the countries that co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group which has undertaken a mediating mission in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.
As Qambar said, the recent events have demonstrated that Russia has no right to be a mediator in settling a conflict, specifically, the one in Nagornyy Karabakh. "And as long as Russia is among the 'peacekeepers', the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is out of the question. Understanding this truth will facilitate the change in the approach to the resolution of this problem," he said.
Qambar also said that Russia made a serious mistake with its thoughtless actions. "It is not an accident that Georgia has declared its intention to withdraw from the CIS. Not just Georgia but we too have to make relevant conclusions from the situation that has taken shape. I think that the Azerbaijani authorities have to propose holding a GUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova] summit and discuss President Saakashvili's proposal. I think that after everything that has happened, the Azerbaijani leadership too can withdraw from the CIS on condition that our country will maintain bilateral relations with these countries, the Musavat chairman said.
"Democracy is a guarantee of our security"
In the opinion of political analyst Hikmet Hacizada, the events in Georgia will affect the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict without fail. Asked what kind of influence these events will have, Hacizada responded: "First, it has become clear to many Azerbaijanis that it is impossible to just go ahead and start a war with Nagornyy Karabakh. This is clear because Russia and Armenia are behind Nagornyy Karabakh and there is no-one behind us. The example of the war in Georgia has made it clear to everyone that one cannot fight against Russia one-on-one.
"Second, Armenia will be a lot more comfortable during peace talks if Moscow consolidates its positions in South Ossetia. This is concerning negative aspects.
"However, there are positive aspects too: the conflict between Russia and Georgia has finally drawn the attention of the international community to the problems of the South Caucasus," the political analyst said.
According to Hacizada, the West has realized that the problem of the South Caucasus concerns them as well and "one cannot forget about it". "In light of these events, I think that Azerbaijan has two ways: either integrate with NATO or choose a strong ally who could help it stand up to the Russian-Armenian alliance," Hacizada said.
In addition, the political analyst said that the country needs to be democratized. "Judge for yourselves. Presidents of five countries went to Georgia to support Saakashvili. Would anyone come here had our authorities launched an attack on Xankandi? I am not so sure. And Saakashvili managed to create an image of a democrat and reinforced this with real deeds. The thing is that democracy is not a whim of mine or anyone else's. Democracy is a guarantee of our security," he said.
Precedent set
In turn, Ali Karimli, chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party, said in conversation with our correspondent that "Russia's open aggression has demonstrated that the issue of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's autonomy is nothing but a tool used for putting pressure on Georgia". "Everyone has understood perfectly well that conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia were created by Russia and play into Moscow's hands," he underscored.
He said that the same situation can be observed with regard to the Nagornyy Karabakh issue. "Everyone knows that official Moscow is an instigator of all conflicts in the South Caucasus and a factor impeding their resolution. And Russia needs this situation to consolidate its military and political positions in the region," Karimli said.
He said that the Russian-Georgian confrontation has clearly demonstrated that official Moscow is trying to take advantage of individual hotbeds of conflict in the region. "This has made it easier for Azerbaijan to let the international community know the truth that Russia's imperialist ambitions are behind Nagornyy Karabakh's separatist ambitions," the chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party said.
According to him, the same handwriting can be discerned in the Kremlin's actions. "Note that the Russian armed forces did not limit themselves to seizing Tskhinvali and took Gori too. The same scenario could be observed in 1993, when the Armenian armed forces, under Russia's protection, occupied regions adjacent to Nagornyy Karabakh," he noted.
Karimli said that this conflict has once again made the international community face the dilemma: separatism or territorial integrity. "I have no doubt at all that the United States and European countries will offer serious support to Georgia in the issue of the country's territorial integrity. And this factor will let Azerbaijan receive the West's support in the issue of its own territorial integrity. Of course, should our leadership decide to integrate with the North-Atlantic alliance," he added.
Karimli also stated that Georgia has created a precedent of defending its territorial integrity by military means and this step was not seriously condemned by the international community. "A precedent has already been set for us. But, to tell you the truth, I do not believe that the Azerbaijani authorities could follow Georgia's example given the situation prevailing in our country today. The thing is that we do not have an ally like the one Georgia has," he said.
Commenting on this issue in an exclusive interview with Zerkalo - we will publish its full text in tomorrow's issue [16 August] - Irina Khakamada, former deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma [and currently an opposition politician], voiced a pessimistic forecast.
In Khakamada's opinion, should Russia find itself cornered and in the conditions of international isolation, it could do anything with regard to the Nagornyy Karabakh issue. The famous Russian of Japanese origin believes that, in this case, "the Russian Federation would be ready for indirect as well as direct, head-on, including military, response to Azerbaijan's attempt to restore its territorial integrity by strong-arm methods". In this regard, Irina Khakamada assesses the line of behaviour of Azerbaijan and its leader Ilham Aliyev as principled and, at the same time, balanced and the only correct one.
[translated]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Aug 15 2008
Will Georgian example prove contagious?
In our politicians' opinion, with its actions, Russia has demonstrated that it is an aggressor
The results of the Russian-Georgian military stand-off are very important for the negotiations on the issue of Nagornyy Karabakh. Zeyno Baran, director of Hudson's Centre for Eurasian Policy, said this in an interview to the Voice of America radio station. In her view, the events that are unfolding in Georgia, make the issue of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity a topical one.
Expecting "positive effect"
Thus, [opposition] Musavat Party Chairman Isa Qambar believes that the events in Georgia are affecting not only the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict but the general situation in the region as well. "It is too early to say whether the influence will be positive or negative since the process itself has not yet been completed. But, overall, I think that the processes that are unfolding in Georgia will have a positive effect on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict," Qambar said.
According to Qambar, the Russian authorities have fully exposed their true nature with their actions. "Official Moscow has once again demonstrated that it is not going to give up on its previous imperialist ambitions and intends to carry out aggressive policy," the Musavat party chairman said.
Our respondent noted that the democratic world has come to better understand that one should not be pinning hopes on Russia's assistance in the issue of settling the territorial integrity problems in the countries of the South Caucasus. "The West has realized that Russia is not an element of stability in the region but, on the contrary, a factor facilitating destabilization. Based on this, I think that the influence of the Georgian events on the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict will be positive," he underscored.
Indeed, Russia has fully exposed its true nature. And this nature lies with the fact that official Moscow is openly supporting separatism, in spite of the norms of international law. In his case, a reasonable question arises: how can a country which supports separatist regimes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia be a mediator in peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict?
Note that Russia is one of the countries that co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group which has undertaken a mediating mission in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict.
As Qambar said, the recent events have demonstrated that Russia has no right to be a mediator in settling a conflict, specifically, the one in Nagornyy Karabakh. "And as long as Russia is among the 'peacekeepers', the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict is out of the question. Understanding this truth will facilitate the change in the approach to the resolution of this problem," he said.
Qambar also said that Russia made a serious mistake with its thoughtless actions. "It is not an accident that Georgia has declared its intention to withdraw from the CIS. Not just Georgia but we too have to make relevant conclusions from the situation that has taken shape. I think that the Azerbaijani authorities have to propose holding a GUAM [Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova] summit and discuss President Saakashvili's proposal. I think that after everything that has happened, the Azerbaijani leadership too can withdraw from the CIS on condition that our country will maintain bilateral relations with these countries, the Musavat chairman said.
"Democracy is a guarantee of our security"
In the opinion of political analyst Hikmet Hacizada, the events in Georgia will affect the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict without fail. Asked what kind of influence these events will have, Hacizada responded: "First, it has become clear to many Azerbaijanis that it is impossible to just go ahead and start a war with Nagornyy Karabakh. This is clear because Russia and Armenia are behind Nagornyy Karabakh and there is no-one behind us. The example of the war in Georgia has made it clear to everyone that one cannot fight against Russia one-on-one.
"Second, Armenia will be a lot more comfortable during peace talks if Moscow consolidates its positions in South Ossetia. This is concerning negative aspects.
"However, there are positive aspects too: the conflict between Russia and Georgia has finally drawn the attention of the international community to the problems of the South Caucasus," the political analyst said.
According to Hacizada, the West has realized that the problem of the South Caucasus concerns them as well and "one cannot forget about it". "In light of these events, I think that Azerbaijan has two ways: either integrate with NATO or choose a strong ally who could help it stand up to the Russian-Armenian alliance," Hacizada said.
In addition, the political analyst said that the country needs to be democratized. "Judge for yourselves. Presidents of five countries went to Georgia to support Saakashvili. Would anyone come here had our authorities launched an attack on Xankandi? I am not so sure. And Saakashvili managed to create an image of a democrat and reinforced this with real deeds. The thing is that democracy is not a whim of mine or anyone else's. Democracy is a guarantee of our security," he said.
Precedent set
In turn, Ali Karimli, chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party, said in conversation with our correspondent that "Russia's open aggression has demonstrated that the issue of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's autonomy is nothing but a tool used for putting pressure on Georgia". "Everyone has understood perfectly well that conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia were created by Russia and play into Moscow's hands," he underscored.
He said that the same situation can be observed with regard to the Nagornyy Karabakh issue. "Everyone knows that official Moscow is an instigator of all conflicts in the South Caucasus and a factor impeding their resolution. And Russia needs this situation to consolidate its military and political positions in the region," Karimli said.
He said that the Russian-Georgian confrontation has clearly demonstrated that official Moscow is trying to take advantage of individual hotbeds of conflict in the region. "This has made it easier for Azerbaijan to let the international community know the truth that Russia's imperialist ambitions are behind Nagornyy Karabakh's separatist ambitions," the chairman of the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party said.
According to him, the same handwriting can be discerned in the Kremlin's actions. "Note that the Russian armed forces did not limit themselves to seizing Tskhinvali and took Gori too. The same scenario could be observed in 1993, when the Armenian armed forces, under Russia's protection, occupied regions adjacent to Nagornyy Karabakh," he noted.
Karimli said that this conflict has once again made the international community face the dilemma: separatism or territorial integrity. "I have no doubt at all that the United States and European countries will offer serious support to Georgia in the issue of the country's territorial integrity. And this factor will let Azerbaijan receive the West's support in the issue of its own territorial integrity. Of course, should our leadership decide to integrate with the North-Atlantic alliance," he added.
Karimli also stated that Georgia has created a precedent of defending its territorial integrity by military means and this step was not seriously condemned by the international community. "A precedent has already been set for us. But, to tell you the truth, I do not believe that the Azerbaijani authorities could follow Georgia's example given the situation prevailing in our country today. The thing is that we do not have an ally like the one Georgia has," he said.
Commenting on this issue in an exclusive interview with Zerkalo - we will publish its full text in tomorrow's issue [16 August] - Irina Khakamada, former deputy speaker of the Russian State Duma [and currently an opposition politician], voiced a pessimistic forecast.
In Khakamada's opinion, should Russia find itself cornered and in the conditions of international isolation, it could do anything with regard to the Nagornyy Karabakh issue. The famous Russian of Japanese origin believes that, in this case, "the Russian Federation would be ready for indirect as well as direct, head-on, including military, response to Azerbaijan's attempt to restore its territorial integrity by strong-arm methods". In this regard, Irina Khakamada assesses the line of behaviour of Azerbaijan and its leader Ilham Aliyev as principled and, at the same time, balanced and the only correct one.
[translated]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress