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Ukraine role gives EU a place in Russia's backyard

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  • Ukraine role gives EU a place in Russia's backyard

    ANALYSIS-Ukraine role gives EU a place in Russia's backyard

    By Sebastian Alison

    BRUSSELS, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The European Union's mediation in
    Ukraine's political crisis has made it a foreign policy actor in
    territory long regarded by Russia as its own backyard and Moscow has
    no choice but to accept it, analysts say.

    The EU's eastward expansion in May to the borders of the former Soviet
    Union sharpened tensions between Moscow and Brussels over what role,
    if any, the bloc should play in six former Soviet republics.

    "The Russians still perceive it as their sphere of influence and would
    prefer not to have anyone from the EU," said Wojciech Saryusz-Wolski,
    analyst at the European Policy Centre.

    The two giant trade partners have been trying to redefine their
    relations on the basis of four "common spaces," on the economy;
    freedom, security and justice; education and research; and external
    security.

    The latter has been the most contentious, with the EU arguing that it
    has a role in what it terms their "common neighbourhood" -- Ukraine,
    Belarus and Moldova, and the Caucasus republics of Georgia, Azerbaijan
    and Armenia.

    Moscow rejects this, striking the term off an EU draft document
    outlining the external security "space," and sees all six as its "near
    abroad."

    But apparently without trying, the EU has been swept into a
    negotiating role in the aftermath of the Nov. 21 presidential election
    runoff which left Ukraine in turmoil and rudderless.

    EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Polish President Aleksander
    Kwasniewski and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus have been
    mediating with Russia's Boris Gryzlov, speaker of the State Duma lower
    house of parliament, between Viktor Yanukovich and Viktor Yushchenko,
    both of whom claim victory in the poll.

    The fact that Gryzlov is talking to the EU team means Russia is
    recognising de facto a role for the bloc -- and therefore that Ukraine
    is indeed in their common neighbourhood.

    "They're forced at this point to this round table which in fact did
    not prove itself fruitful. They will pull back from any such move as
    soon as they can," Saryusz-Wolski said.

    "THEY'RE THERE, AREN'T THEY"

    Russia has not acknowledged a formal EU role, said Michael Emerson,
    Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, but
    its presence at the talks speaks for itself.

    "They wouldn't say so, would they, but they're there, aren't they," he
    said.

    He noted the difference with Moldova, where the EU has long sought a
    role in ending a "frozen conflict" in the breakaway Dnestr region.

    In Moldova, talks have dragged on to no effect for years among Russia,
    Ukraine, Moldova, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
    Europe, with the EU kept out.

    "In Ukraine, hey presto, it just happened," Emerson said.

    Even Solana's office was vague about how he got involved in the Kiev
    talks, saying he received no formal invitation but was suggested by
    Kwasniewski, who enjoys wide respect in Ukraine.

    Emerson said Russian President Vladimir Putin faced a dilemma once the
    EU was involved -- sending his own envoy to the talks would recognise
    the EU's role, while staying away would deny Moscow a place at the
    table.

    "Gryzlov has to be there because not being there would be even worse,"
    he said. "On the other hand Putin could not be represented at a higher
    level. It's a major embarrassment."

    He said Putin had scored "one own goal after another" in his policy
    towards Russia's closest neighbours, citing Moldova, a border dispute
    with Ukraine over a tiny island in the Kerch strait between the Sea of
    Azov and the Black Sea, and support for a breakaway leader in the
    Georgian region of Abkhazia.

    "At some point the Kremlin may have to think about whether they've got
    the right concept for near abroad policy," he said.

    The EU acquired a role in Ukraine almost by accident and despite the
    fact that most of its members do not want Kiev to become a candidate
    for membership of the 25-nation bloc.

    "Ever since Ukraine became independent, the EU has shown remarkably
    little interest in it," the London-based Centre for European Reform
    said in a briefing note.

    But it is an attractive partner for Ukraine as it cares only that the
    election should be fair, and not who wins, it said -- unlike Moscow,
    which wants a leader in line with its interests.

    "Whether this leader is elected, appointed or has fallen from space is
    immaterial to Moscow," CER said.

    "In contrast, the EU ultimately cares little who is in charge in
    Ukraine -- or Belarus or Georgia -- provided that person gains
    legitimacy through fair elections and upholds Western standards of
    democracy and human rights."



    12/03/04 08:01 ET

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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