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BAKU: Armenia-Turkey Football Match Against The Background Of Violat

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  • BAKU: Armenia-Turkey Football Match Against The Background Of Violat

    ARMENIA-TURKEY FOOTBALL MATCH AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF VIOLATED STRATEGIC BALANCE IN CAUCASUS - ANALYSIS

    Azeri Press Agency
    Sept 1 2008
    Azerbaijan

    For the first time in the history of Armenia a Turkish President will
    visit the country

    Though Abdullah Gul's visit to Armenia aims at watching football
    match, this visit has more political weight. For the first time in the
    history of Armenia a Turkish President will visit the country. What
    makes this visit inevitable? Official reason is to watch a football
    match, unofficial reason - Turkey's intention to show its interest
    in the regulation of the relations with Armenia.

    Outcomes of Russia-Georgia military confrontation violated strategic
    balance in the Caucasus. The strategic balance formed in the Caucasus
    with the participation of all the players of the world and region
    policy after the collapse of the USSR changed in favor of Russia. This
    is a great danger for Turkey - one of the main players of the ongoing
    processes in the region.

    The reality is that the West and its main player in the region Ankara
    may lose levers of influence in the South Caucasus. If Russia forms
    levers of full influence over Georgia, it will mean Turkey's extrusion
    from the South Caucasus. Therefore Ankara is going to review all
    the alternatives to protect its strategic interests in the region,
    as well as the alternative of regulating the relations with Armenia.

    Besides, the European Union is laying down the extension of Ankara -
    Yerevan relations as an indirect condition. The European Union, which
    once used Cyprus card against Turkey, now exerts pressure on Ankara
    in terms of Armenia. Unfortunately, it seems that Ankara will step
    back with respect to Armenia like in Cyprus issue.

    Opening borders with Armenia is one of the chewed topics of the
    Turkey's agenda and even serious political and economic circles are
    speaking about its possibility. If Ankara restores at least border
    trade it will stop mouth of the United States and European Union,
    which insist in establishing civil relations with Yerevan, and internal
    pressure groups as well.

    Recently pro-government research centers in Turkey use the thesis that
    if Turkey opens borders with Armenia it will strength it weakened
    power in the South Caucasus. Supporters of this thesis think that
    by blockading Armenia Turkey increases its dependence on Russia. "In
    contrary, widening of political and economic relations with Armenia
    can weaken its dependence on Russia and increase Turkey's influence
    in the South Caucasian countries", they said. It seems Turkey's
    initiative of the Caucasian Stability Pact also bases on this thesis.

    Ankara is not cautious in the issues related to relations with Armenia
    unlike previous period.

    a) Intensifying negotiations between the Turkish and Armenian foreign
    ministries, b) Ankara's non-rejecting of this fact, but justifying it,
    c) Prime Minister Erdogan's statement "establishing direct relations
    with Armenia is possible and our initiative aims close cooperation
    of five countries" d) and at last Abdullah Gul's consent to visit
    Yerevan to watch Armenia-Turkey match have a such meaning.

    "Russia's success in the influential war in the South Caucasus and
    European energy market caused serious changes in the Turkey's foreign
    policy. Ankara made relations with Armenia one of its priorities".

    Turkish President Abdullah Gul's visit to Yerevan is realized
    under the dictation of complicated political situation. Will Ankara
    reach its goal with such gestures? It depends on the development of
    regional processes rather than Turkey and Armenia. It is doubtless
    that Turkish-Armenian approach will cause negative reaction in
    Azerbaijan. Ankara's gestures to Armenia means de-facto refusal of
    three terms put forward for establishing relations with Armenia. One of
    these terms relates with Azerbaijan - Armenian withdrawal from occupied
    Nagorno Karabakh and nearby regions. Is it really that Turkey refuses
    these terms? Turkish officials have to make clear this question.
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