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Encirclement Of Armenia May Become Tighter

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  • Encirclement Of Armenia May Become Tighter

    ENCIRCLEMENT OF ARMENIA MAY BECOME TIGHTER
    Vardan Grigoryan

    Hayots Ashkhar Daily
    02 Sep 2008
    Armenia

    If no non-standard steps are undertaken

    Although, after the recent events in South Ossetia, the
    Armenian-Georgian railway communication has already been restored,
    the swift developments in the region come to show that in case of
    relying upon the restricted communication resources our country may
    face serious problems in the near future.

    On August 28, right after Russia's recognition of the independence of
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia broke off its diplomatic and all
    kinds of other ties with Moscow. Tbilisi has not only terminated the
    communication between the two countries, but also refused to comply
    with its commitments within the frameworks of the International Civil
    Aviation Organization (ICAO) which obliged the country to allow
    the Russian air companies to carry out flights to Armenia via the
    Georgian territory.

    During the recent days, the Russian planes leaving Volgograd and other
    towns have been arriving in Yerevan via the Azerbaijani airspace,
    and our neighbor is trying to take advantage of the situation.

    The Mass Media of Baku have already raised a wave of protest, however,
    the Azerbaijani authorities say that Yerevan allows the airplanes
    heading for Nakhijevan to fly over their territory, therefore they
    can't create obstacles for the aircraft entering Armenia.

    Following the re cognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia
    has been facing the real threat of being cut off from Armenia, its
    strategic ally. Moreover, there also exists the problem of helping the
    Russian military bases located in our country to overcome the blockade
    - a prospect in which neither Georgia nor Azerbaijan have any interest.

    The threat of encircling Armenia may increase still further if
    the recent publications of the foreign press regarding Israel's
    plans of bombing the nuclear reserves of Iran with the help of the
    United States become a reality this autumn. In that case, Armenia may
    actually find itself in a total political-military blockade, as all
    the roads ensuring the protection of our state will be closed. It
    will be possible to import the required quantity of petrol, diesel
    fuel and wheat via the Georgian territory at best till the beginning
    of winter; as to the rest, we will have to take care of it on our own.

    However, our country cannot feel totally secure in that sense
    either. The thing is that, after the recent Russian-Georgian armed
    conflict, Georgia has been looking upon our close military-political
    cooperation with Russia in a kind of scowling manner. Now, the
    Georgian propaganda never misses the occasion of reminding Russia about
    Armenia's dependence upon the Georgian transportation-communication
    channels.

    "The Kremlin overlooked even the fact that Georgia could have used all
    its economic levers against Armenia, its closest partner, in case it
    wished so," a certain Fridon Dochia writes in "The Georgiana Times",
    "and it could have done that at the time when the Russians themselves
    were pouring oil on the flames." Such remainders often take the form
    of obvious pressures, the improper delays in the entry of the trains
    to Armenia being one of their manifestations from time to time.

    And that these are political pressures is substantiated by the
    publication of the same "Georgian Times". In an article entitled "
    'Lookoil' and 'Rompetrol' Save Armenia from Blockade", the newspaper
    conducts thorough studies of the companies supplying Armenia with power
    generating substances and finds out that some of those companies have
    Russian origins. Furthermore, the companies realizing the export of
    the supplies from Burgas to Poti and form Romania to Batumi, i.e.

    "Lookoil" and "Rompetrol", as well as the addressees, i.e.

    the RA Ministry of Defense and "Flash" company, are studied one by one.

    The whole information published by the Georgian correspondent has
    also appeared in the Azerbaijani press which actively discusses the
    possibilities for hindering the transportation of the supplies to
    the relevant agencies of Armenia via the Georgia territory.

    Regardless whether the above-mentioned publication results from
    mere curiosity or is some provocation instructed to Fridon Dochia,
    the correspondent of "The Georgian Times", it objectively becomes a
    forewarning addressed to Armenia which, in case of undertaking any step
    undesirable for Georgia, may be deprived of petrol and diesel fuel.

    Naturally, the issue cannot be overlooked by the Armenian and Russian
    Presidents during their meeting held in Sochi today. Armenia has
    become faced with an extremely difficult and dangerous dilemma. And
    our strategic ally should take that fact into consideration. Obviously
    Armenia is not Belarus, and it has to demonstrate utmost cautiousness.

    Russia in its turn is also undertaking active steps towards
    accelerating the process of opening the Armenian-Turkish border. The
    recent press publications on Russian customs officers' "delaying"
    the entry of around 10 thousand big Turkish trailers into Russia can
    probably be accounted for by this. It is also necessary to keep in
    mind that Russia is the supplier of around 60 percent of the gas and
    56.4 percent of the coal used in Turkey.

    All that forces Ankara to adopt strictly cautious attitudes towards
    the recent developments in Georgia. However, the Russian side is no
    longer satisfied with that because the issue at stake is actually
    concerned with the existence of its military base in Gyumri, the
    only fulcrum it has in the South Caucasus, and the future of the
    Armenian-Russian relations.

    Thus,20the new barrier faced by Russia after the recognition of the
    independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has become a new circle of
    blockade for Armenia, with Turkey being the only way towards overcoming
    it in a peaceful manner. Otherwise, unpredictable developments may
    be expected in the region.
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