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  • Belarus Responds Cautiously To Georgian Crisis

    BELARUS RESPONDS CAUTIOUSLY TO GEORGIAN CRISIS
    By David Marples

    Eurasia Daily Monitor
    Sept 2 2008
    DC

    Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka One of the interesting
    features of the Russia-Georgia conflict has been the sluggish support
    Russia has received from its allies. Perhaps most notable has been
    the reaction in Minsk, where the government of President Alyaksandr
    Lukashenka has acted ambivalently and still appears to be vacillating
    over the wisest course of action.

    Belarusian Television, as well as the official media, greeted the news
    that war had broken out in Tskhinvali with silence. For several days
    most residents of Belarus received news feeds about events only from
    the Russian television channels. Even investigative programs such as
    Panarama failed to mention the war.

    On August 12, four days after the conflict began, Aleksandr Surikov,
    Russia's ambassador to Belarus, commented angrily on what he called
    the "incomprehensible silence" of official Minsk with regard to the
    Russian-Georgian war. Despite the fact that Russia had always backed
    Belarus, particularly during its international isolation based on its
    treatment of opposition leaders, Belarus had not supported Russia's
    position in the war, nor had it offered aid or sanctuary to troops and
    civilians from South Ossetia who were injured or homeless (Reuters,
    August 12).

    The Russian on-line newspaper Vzglyad likewise described Belarus's
    reaction as a "betrayal" of its close ally and seemed particularly
    incensed over a Belarusian media spokesperson's call for an
    end to the conflict and the laying down of arms by both sides
    (http://vz.ru/politics/2008/8/13/196365.html ). Surikov noted that only
    a minor official from the Belarusian Foreign Ministry had provided
    a statement concerning Belarus's response. In the main organ of the
    presidential administration, the newspaper Sovetskaya Belorussiya,
    a balanced article by Ihar Kalchenka called for an end to the armed
    conflict and a peaceful solution (SB Belarus' Segodnya, August 9).

    At a previously scheduled meeting with Russian president Dmitry
    Medvedev at Sochi on August 19, however, Lukashenka decided to offer
    support to Russia. He thanked the Russians for "establishing peace in
    the Caucasus" and declared that Russia's thrust into Georgia did not
    constitute an act of war. Rather it was a calm response that led to
    peace in the region. Everything was done, he commented, "excellently,
    very calmly, wisely, and beautifully" (krasivo). The two countries then
    announced that they would sign an agreement on a unified air defense
    system later in the fall (Belorusy i Rynok, August 25-September 1).

    After Medvedev ratified the Russian Duma's decision to recognize
    the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Lukashenka sent
    a message to Moscow, stating that with the situation getting ever
    more complex, the only moral choice for Russia was to support South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia. He did not, however, offer recognition from
    Minsk and went on to say that it would be expedient to examine the
    issue of the two regions' independence at the forthcoming meeting of
    the Collective Security Treaty Organization in Moscow on September 5
    (Belapan, August 28), along with the other members of the organization:
    Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

    Russian news agencies then reported that although to date no countries
    had followed Medvedev's appeal to recognize the independence of South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Belarusian authorities intended to do so
    "in the next day or two." Almost immediately, a government source in
    Minsk issued a statement that no further comment would be forthcoming
    from Belarus (RIA-Novosti, August 28; Reuters, August 28). In other
    words, Belarus has stopped short thus far of recognizing the breakaway
    regions.

    On August 16, just over a week after the conflict began, Lukashenka
    issued a pardon for the last remaining designated political prisoner,
    Alyaksandr Kazulin, who was detained at a penal colony in Vitsebsk
    region, having served just over two years of a five-and-a-half
    year sentence. Kazulin immediately appealed to the United States
    and the European Union not to commence a new dialogue with Belarus
    based on his release, noting the difficulties to which he and his
    family had been subjected. Though awarded a pardon by the president
    personally, he had signed no document nor had he been aware of the
    nature of his release. Furthermore, his conviction was not revoked
    (www.charter97.org, August 16; www.naviny.by, August 20).

    The release of Kazulin and the nebulous Belarusian position on the
    Russia-Georgia conflict suggest that the government of Lukashenka
    is hoping for a relaxation of U.S. sanctions on its oil processing
    company Belnaftakhim, as well as closer cooperation with the EU
    through its Eastern Neighborhood program. Such concessions would
    not be forthcoming if Belarus were to take an unequivocal position
    alongside Russia with regard to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

    Adding to Belarus's dilemma is the planned construction of a
    U.S. anti-missile base in Poland, which Lukashenka has strongly
    opposed, and at the same time the need to reach a modified agreement
    with Russia on a new $2 billion loan as well as on gas prices,
    which some sources fear could rise sharply. Russia has also demanded
    frequently that the two countries switch to the use of a single
    currency, that is, the Russian ruble (Kommersant, August 20). Thus,
    the authorities are conducting a balancing act, not wanting to offend
    either Russia or the West.

    Lukashenka has assured Medvedev that Belarus remains a close friend and
    supporter of Russia (BelTA, August 28). However, in reality Belarus'
    position is that of a reluctant partner of Russian adventurism. As
    one writer noted, the republic would likely be the first casualty of
    a new Cold War and would be incorporated into a new imperial Russia
    (Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, August 26).
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