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  • Talks For The Caucasus Pact Underway

    TALKS FOR THE CAUCASUS PACT UNDERWAY
    By Saban Kardas

    Eurasia Daily Monitor
    Sept 2 2008
    DC

    Turkey's shuttle diplomacy to manage the aftermath of the conflict
    in Georgia has kept Turkish foreign policy in the spotlight. During
    a series of visits to Tbilisi, Moscow, and Baku in the first half
    of August, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed Ankara's
    proposal for a Caucasian Stability and Cooperation Platform, which
    would aspire to bring together Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,
    and Armenia. On receiving an initial green light from the regional
    countries, Turkish diplomats and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan have
    been holding working meetings with their counterparts.

    Since Erdogan aired this proposal, the senior partners, Turkey and
    Russia, have worked out the details of the project. Babacan earlier
    had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
    on August 22. A Turkish delegation visited Moscow on August 26 to
    work on Turkey's proposals, but neither party disclosed the details
    (Radikal, August 26). Lavrov is visiting Istanbul on September 2 to
    discuss bilateral relations as well as the pact. In the meantime,
    Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov visited Ankara on
    August 29, and Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili visited
    Istanbul on August 31. The Armenian foreign minister and president
    had already welcomed Turkey's proposal. After weeks of speculation
    and criticism from the opposition, sources in Ankara expect Turkish
    President Abdullah Gul to visit Armenia this week for a soccer game
    (Radikal, September 2). President Gul and his delegation will extend an
    official invitation to Armenia to join the proposed pact. The Armenian
    President is visiting Russia today in anticipation of Gul visit
    (www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load =detay&link=151898&bolum=102).

    The content of the pact will be shaped following these meetings, but
    proposals vary from boosting economic cooperation to developing crisis
    management mechanisms similar to the OSCE in Europe. The underlying
    goal is to create conditions for stability and peace through regional
    cooperation, which resonates well with the government's new foreign
    policy agenda of projecting Turkey as an indispensable peace broker
    in the region. Domestically, the initiative reflects cooperation
    between Turkey's key offices.

    Turkey seems determined to use this crisis as an opportunity to find
    long-lasting solutions for the region's stalemated conflicts and
    to boost peace. The means to this end is through deepener economic
    interdependence among the countries by creating interlocking channels
    in various important areas, including energy, transportation, and
    infrastructure. Because the region is already beset with perennial
    bilateral problems, a multilateral initiative such as this could
    in theory provide a new platform to achieve a breakthrough in these
    protracted problems.

    The key to realizing the project is for the regional countries to set
    aside their differences. Russia continues its occupation of Georgia,
    while Armenia's occupation of Karabakh poisons its relations with
    Azerbaijan and Turkey. In the meantime, a Turkish-Russian trade
    dispute has been accelerating into a serious crisis. The visits of
    the Azerbaijani and Georgian foreign ministers already demonstrated
    that their support for the project is heavily conditional on obtaining
    clear guarantees on issues vital to them, and they remain reluctant
    at best. Most importantly, Tkeshelashvili's visit particularly
    underlined the lack of trust between the would-be partners. While
    Turkey's proposal assumes that the Caucasian countries could develop a
    local security regime, it stresses that a broader initiative including
    European powers is also needed. Short of such a solution, Turkey is
    worried that this initiative could justify Russia's near abroad policy
    (NTV, September 1).

    This creates a difficult predicament: As long as the major regional
    power is seen as the aggressor, the smaller countries will seek
    powerful external arbiters. Ironically, Russia's attempt to curb
    outside involvement in its near abroad lies at the heart of the
    crisis. Since Turkey will not be able on its own to give assurances
    to Georgia, the viability of the project is in question. Turkish
    analysts have also questioned whether an initiative excluding Iran
    could survive as well (Ihsan Dagi in Today's Zaman, August 25).

    Let alone assuring smaller countries in a closed regional arrangement,
    Turkey's ability to withstand the pressures from a resurgent Russia
    is dubious. So far, Turkey has followed an ambivalent policy and
    has avoided taking sides. Turkey did not forcefully protest Russia's
    recognition of Georgia's breakaway regions, due to its dependence on
    Russia for energy supplies and trade, which worried Westerners that
    Ankara might abandon the West. Erdogan acknowledged this dependence,
    which made a balanced policy between the United States and Russia
    necessary, and drew attention to Turkey's attempts to diversify its
    energy supplies (Milliyet, September 2).

    Turkey's acquiescent attitude toward Russia, however, received
    criticism at home. The insensitivity of Russia to Turkey's concerns in
    the trade dispute especially led Turkish analysts to argue that Turkey
    might slowly realize the dangers involved and reassert its place
    in the Western camp. Chief of Staff Ilker Basbug's recent remarks
    about the importance of the Turkish-U.S. alliance are seen as the
    strongest indicator of such realignment on Turkey's part (Milliyet,
    August 31). Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's announcement of new
    pillars of Russian foreign policy only increases these worries. Veteran
    analyst Sami Kohen sees it as Russia's challenge to the uni-polar world
    order and attempt to translate Russian economic power into political
    influence. In particular, he expects Russia to capitalize on its
    monopoly of energy resources and bully the West European countries so
    that it can divide them and legitimize its fait accompli (Milliyet,
    September 2).

    Even if these broader goals fail, Turkey, on its part, sees the
    Caucasus initiative as a way of solving bilateral problems with
    Armenia. In return for being acknowledged by Moscow as a mediator
    in the Russia-Georgia dispute, Ankara expects Russia in turn to
    use its influence over Armenia (Today's Zaman, August 30). The
    resolution of the conundrum, however, comes down to whether Armenia
    will reciprocate. With the current status quo favoring Armenia,
    it remains to be seen how far it will back down in its lingering
    dispute with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
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