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ARMENIA IN THE CROSSROAD OF THE CONFLICTS
Vasak Tarposhyan
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
04 Sep 2008
Armenia
As a result of the Russian-Georgian conflict the issue of the
search for the new communication channels has become urgent for
Armenia. Though after a short break the transit deliveries by Georgia
has been restored, it can be destroyed any time. And by the way the
conversation here is both about the deliveries made by the railway
and the gas pipeline.
At this stage the provision of gas delivery is number one issue for
Armenia, especially because winter is not very far.
It is quite understandable that any time Russia can stop gas
supply to Georgia. Which means Armenia will also be deprived of gas
supply. Georgia will hardly tolerate Russian gas supply to the third
country by its territory, no matter how much income it will bring.
On the other hand life shows that in such cases Georgia makes use of
the gas intended for Armenia, something that Russia will naturally
not tolerate.
Thus Armenia must think of alternative ways to receive gas. In that
respect, lots of work has already been implemented. Due to which today
it will be easier for Armenia to overcome the existing energy problems.
We have an alternative in the person of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. Of
course it is not completely ready. The problem is because of low
carrying capacity of the gas pipeline functioning in the t erritory
of Armenia, which is not able to push sufficient amount of blue fuel
required for Armenia.
Taking into consideration that circumstance the works aimed at the
increase of the carrying capacity of Meghry-Ararat gas pipeline have
started from last year, which is previewed to complete at he end of
this year.
In case of the launch of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline Armenia can receive
sufficient amount of gas from Iran.
If the problem of gas supply is much easier to solve, in case of
alternative gas pipelines, the same can't be said about railway
transportation. The situation is a bit different in this case. Despite
Russian-Georgian conflict Armenia can continue to make use of
Georgian railway but the existing contradictions will have influence
on transportation of the loads. Moreover for different reasons the
load transportation can stop from time to time.
One thing is clear - that direction is hopeless for Armenia. Thus
we should also think of an alternative railway exit. Iran - Armenia
railways can serve as an alternative in this regard. But unlike the
gas pipeline the processes here are mainly on the level of programs
and it is not clear when they will be put into practice. The works are
in process on the level of experts. Even if they manage to complete
these works in a short period of time it will take around 2-3 years
to build Iran-Armenia railway.
Though the fun ding of this project is more than 1 billion dollars,
it will not hinder its implementation. Moreover Armenia will most
probably not shoulder financial load.
As we know a Russian company has taken the long-term governance of
Armenian railway and according to the agreement the governor commits
himself to serious investment obligations, which are directly linked
with the construction and launch of Iran-Armenia railway.
So we can say that the problems linked with funding are settled. But
there are lots of questions in terms of the efficiency of the railway's
activity, which needs to be grounded.
Therefore the construction of Iran-Armenia railway can become part of a
complex program. It presumes also construction of an oil-reprocessing
factory in Meghry. The program has been elaborated 2 years back. But
as it was in case of the railway the works have not yet started.
Anyway Armenia can't wait any more. We must make the search of the
alternative communication ways more active.
Vasak Tarposhyan
Hayots Ashkhar Daily
04 Sep 2008
Armenia
As a result of the Russian-Georgian conflict the issue of the
search for the new communication channels has become urgent for
Armenia. Though after a short break the transit deliveries by Georgia
has been restored, it can be destroyed any time. And by the way the
conversation here is both about the deliveries made by the railway
and the gas pipeline.
At this stage the provision of gas delivery is number one issue for
Armenia, especially because winter is not very far.
It is quite understandable that any time Russia can stop gas
supply to Georgia. Which means Armenia will also be deprived of gas
supply. Georgia will hardly tolerate Russian gas supply to the third
country by its territory, no matter how much income it will bring.
On the other hand life shows that in such cases Georgia makes use of
the gas intended for Armenia, something that Russia will naturally
not tolerate.
Thus Armenia must think of alternative ways to receive gas. In that
respect, lots of work has already been implemented. Due to which today
it will be easier for Armenia to overcome the existing energy problems.
We have an alternative in the person of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline. Of
course it is not completely ready. The problem is because of low
carrying capacity of the gas pipeline functioning in the t erritory
of Armenia, which is not able to push sufficient amount of blue fuel
required for Armenia.
Taking into consideration that circumstance the works aimed at the
increase of the carrying capacity of Meghry-Ararat gas pipeline have
started from last year, which is previewed to complete at he end of
this year.
In case of the launch of Iran-Armenia gas pipeline Armenia can receive
sufficient amount of gas from Iran.
If the problem of gas supply is much easier to solve, in case of
alternative gas pipelines, the same can't be said about railway
transportation. The situation is a bit different in this case. Despite
Russian-Georgian conflict Armenia can continue to make use of
Georgian railway but the existing contradictions will have influence
on transportation of the loads. Moreover for different reasons the
load transportation can stop from time to time.
One thing is clear - that direction is hopeless for Armenia. Thus
we should also think of an alternative railway exit. Iran - Armenia
railways can serve as an alternative in this regard. But unlike the
gas pipeline the processes here are mainly on the level of programs
and it is not clear when they will be put into practice. The works are
in process on the level of experts. Even if they manage to complete
these works in a short period of time it will take around 2-3 years
to build Iran-Armenia railway.
Though the fun ding of this project is more than 1 billion dollars,
it will not hinder its implementation. Moreover Armenia will most
probably not shoulder financial load.
As we know a Russian company has taken the long-term governance of
Armenian railway and according to the agreement the governor commits
himself to serious investment obligations, which are directly linked
with the construction and launch of Iran-Armenia railway.
So we can say that the problems linked with funding are settled. But
there are lots of questions in terms of the efficiency of the railway's
activity, which needs to be grounded.
Therefore the construction of Iran-Armenia railway can become part of a
complex program. It presumes also construction of an oil-reprocessing
factory in Meghry. The program has been elaborated 2 years back. But
as it was in case of the railway the works have not yet started.
Anyway Armenia can't wait any more. We must make the search of the
alternative communication ways more active.