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  • Caspian Mistake

    CASPIAN MISTAKE
    Alexander Gabuev

    RusData Dialine - Russian Press Digest
    September 8, 2008 Monday

    Azeri leadership refused to back U.S.-sponsored Nabucco

    U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney finished his tour of the South
    Caucasus, which was intended to strengthen Washington's positions in
    its struggle for Caspian energy resources. The visit he paid to Tbilisi
    yesterday went smoothly as expected. However, the talks he held in
    Baku Wednesday failed. According to the information of Kommersant,
    Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev gave his American guest a cold
    welcome and sent a clear message that Baku won't support the idea
    to redirect the energy resources pipelines so that they would omit
    Russia. He came to that conclusion watching the developments in the
    neighboring Georgia. Money instead of tanks

    On Thursday at 11 a.m. Dick Cheney arrived from Baku in Tbilisi,
    where Georgia's Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze. Before the meeting of
    the U.S. Vice President with Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili
    Georgian Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomaya revealed the
    talks' agenda to Kommersant. "First, Dick Cheney wants to demonstrate
    the U.S. support to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine," he said. "Second,
    during the negotiations the parties will discuss the security of
    communication lines that allow shipping the Caspian energy resources
    to the West omitting Russia."

    After the talks in the new residence of Georgia's head-of-state,
    Mikheil Saakashvili stated at the joint press-conference, "Georgia
    feels the U.S. support, which is strong as never before." The
    journalists had a chance to assess the strength of that support
    following Dick Cheney's address. The U.S. Vice President said that
    Washington allocates $1 billion to restore the Georgian economy. "We
    stand in solidarity with the people of Georgia. After your nation
    won its freedom in the Rose Revolution, America came to the aid
    of this courageous young democracy. We are doing so again, as you
    work to overcome an invasion of your sovereign territory - and an
    illegitimate, unilateral attempt to change your country's borders
    by force that has been universally condemned by the free world,"
    the Vice President stated. "Russia's actions have cast grave doubt on
    Russia's intentions and on its reliability as an international partner
    - not just in Georgia but across this region and indeed throughout
    the international system." Besides, Dick Cheney reiterated that
    Washington fully supports Georgia's NATO ambitions. "Georgia will be
    in our alliance," he claimed.

    Nevertheless, according to the sources of Kommersant in the Georgian
    Chancellery, the talks of Mikheil Saakashvili and Dick Cheney didn't
    go as smoothly as their press-conference did. The discussion mainly
    focused on the security of the existing pipelines, which were laid
    in Georgia omitting Russia, and the project of the Trans-Caspian
    gas pipeline Nabucco. Dick Cheney made no secret of the fact that
    the U.S. is ready to provide the security of these pipelines using
    political methods only. So, Georgia won't get military assistance
    from the U.S. now.

    By the way, Wednesday, U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice made
    this position public. "It is not yet time to look at the questions of
    assistance on the military side," she stated in Washington. However,
    Mikheil Saakashvili declared ready to further support American energy
    projects in the region. According to the sources of Kommersant, he
    promised to Dick Cheney that Tbilisi will support the Nabucco project
    "whatever" in case the U.S. gets the approval of Georgia's neighbors,
    Baku, first of all.

    The Baku emissary

    Meanwhile, according to the information of Kommersant, Dick Cheney's
    visit to Azerbaijan he made on Wednesday turned out complete
    failure. The guest of honor, who came in Baku for the first time,
    was met neither by President Ilham Aliyev nor Prime Minister Artur
    Rasizade. Instead, First Deputy Prime Minister Yagub Eyubov and Foreign
    Office Chief Elmar Mammadyarov met Dick Cheney in the airport. As
    to Ilham Aliyev, he was in no hurry to receive Mr Cheney. That's why
    the U.S. Vice President first went to a meeting with BP President in
    Azerbaijan Bill Schrader and Chevron Azerbaijan top managers. Then he
    visited the U.S. Embassy in Baku and held a meeting with Ambassador
    Anne E. Derse. It was not earlier than in the evening that Dick Cheney
    went to the residence of Azerbaijan's President.

    According to the sources of Kommersant with the Office of Azerbaijan's
    President, the talks turned out pretty tough, in spite of the fact that
    Dick Cheney and Ilham Aliyev have had close ties since Mr cheney worked
    with Halliburton and Mr Aliyev was SOCAR (Azerbaijan's state-run oil
    company) Vice President. They discussed the war in Georgia and the
    prospects of constructing the Nabucco gas pipeline. According to the
    information of Kommersant, Dick Cheney informed Ilham Aliyev that the
    U.S. will support its allies in the region and intends to promote the
    project of the gas pipeline omitting Russia. Nonetheless, Ilham Aliyev
    sent a clear message that although he appreciates the relations with
    Washington, he is not going to have a row with Moscow. In fact it
    meant that under the present circumstances Baku decided to bide its
    time without fostering the Nabucco project. Kommersant interlocutors
    with the Presidential Office said that Dick Cheney was irritated by
    the outcome of the discussion - he even refused to attend a banquet
    in his honor.

    Ilham Aliyev's reluctance to support Washington quarreling with
    Russia is easy to explain. Baku regrded Tbilisi's definitively losing
    of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as well as Russia's tanks entering
    Georgia as a signal to everyone in the region who is willing to join
    NATO. Azerbaijan's budget incurs great losses: because of the explosion
    at the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline on August 12 - Turkey put
    the blame on the Kurdistan Workers Party - and the pauses of the work
    of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline and Baku-Supsa oil pipeline,
    energy carriers export from Azerbaijan in the western direction was
    suspended. At the same time Baku has no claims to Russia. Moreover,
    according to the information of Kommersant, Azerbaijan's authorities
    expressed their gratitude to the Russian Federation because during
    the military operation and bombardments of the Georgian territory no
    BTC-related facilities were destroyed.

    Nevertheless, Baku can't overhaul its stance towards the pipelines
    on the territory of Georgia. Azerbaijan is said to have increased
    the workload of the Baku-Novorossiysk oil pipeline. It concluded
    that in the present situation it's more secure to transport gas
    to Europe via Russia, rather than Georgia and Turkey. Even more
    so in June Gazprom offered to buy Azerbaijan's gas at any volumes
    according to the European pricing formula. During his visit to Baku
    in July Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ilham Aliyev agreed to
    launch negotiations concerning the matter. It seems the talks will
    be accelerated, just like the pace of Baku and Moscow's developing
    closer relations.

    The Russian leaders have already started work in this direction. In
    the evening after the talks of Dick Cheney and Ilham Aliyev finished,
    Dmitry Medvedev called Azerbaijan's President. Sources in the Kremlin
    explained to Kommersant the necessity of the telephone conversation
    with Dmitry Medvedev's desire to bring home to Ilham Aliyev, one of
    the region's most influential players, Russia's position regarding
    Georgia. Even more so Azerbaijan has a territorial dispute with
    Armenia, which remains unresolved. "Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyanhas
    recently visited Moscow and discussed the situation over South
    Ossetia and Abkhazia during his talks with Dmitry Medvedev. The
    Russian President thought it important to discuss those matters with
    the Azerbaijani party as well because Baku belongs neither to SCO
    nor CSTO - the organizations Russia has intensified contacts with,"
    a source in the Kremlin told Kommersant. In her turn, Press-Secretary
    of the Russian President Natalya Timakova told Kommersant that during
    their conversation the leader of Russia and Azerbaijan discussed a
    possibility of a meeting in the near future.
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