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BACK TO THE COLD WAR?
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Sept 8 2008
Turkey
Tension rose between Russia and the West after the Russian invasion
of the territory of Georgia reached a point that there were comments
about the return of the Cold War era. The President of France Sarkozy
warned about the catastrophic consequences if a "new Cold War"
broke out. During the Second World War democratic states of the West
cooperated with the Soviet Union against the axis of powers. However,
after the Red Army entered Eastern Europe to "liberate" the territory,
the Soviet administration did not allow freely elected governments
to come to the power in Eastern European states. Churchill stated
that an iron curtain was descended across the continent. The bipolar
world was established and struggle continued between the West and
East during the Cold War. With the disintegration of the Soviet
Union, countries were freed from the control of Moscow and the new
independent states joined the international community. Russia as a
successor of the Soviet Union first followed "Atlanticist" foreign
policy and distanced itself from the Caucasus and Central Asia. But
Russian foreign policy changed at the end of 1992 and finally "Near
Abroad" doctrine was declared by Moscow. Russia used every tool to
restore its dominance in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Eastern
European countries were rescued from the Russian pressure since
they integrated with the West. However, situation was different
in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia used ethnic tensions in
the Caucasus to put pressure to the Caucasus countries. Georgia and
Azerbaijan was easy targets for Russia. Russia supported the Armenian
side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in order to force Azerbaijan
for the membership of CIS. Georgia with diverse minority groups and
fragile political and economic structures faced Russian pressure to
accept the membership of the CIS and Russian military presence in
its territory. Russia supplied arms and training assistance to the
Abkhazian units in direct combat. As a result Georgia entered the
CIS and Russian troops deployed in the Georgian territory.
The developments after the 11th of September terrorist attacks
have a great impact in the Caucasus. The US military presence in
the region increased the US influence and in this aspect, together
with Azerbaijan, Georgia became an important state to fight against
terrorism.
The stability in Georgia became more important for the US. After the
"Rose Revolution" Georgia's pro-Western administration openly declared
Georgia's aspiration to be a member of NATO, and Georgia was against
the Russian military presence in the country. Post-11 September
environment turned against Russia. In this atmosphere, post-Cold War
rapprochement between Russia and the West started to be deteriorated
after the Kosovo's declaration of independence and the US and some
other Western countries' recognition of Kosovo as an independent
state. Together with the US's Missile Shield project, Russia felt that
the US followed containment policy. Russian discomfort increased when
the US's influence reached the Caucasus. The tension between Russia
and Georgia further increased due to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia
problems. In July 2008 Georgia recalled its ambassador from Russia. The
tension reached at the stage of conflict. Saakasvili's miscalculation
of possible Russian response to Georgia's action caused Russian
invasion of Georgia. After the talks between Sarkozy and Medvedev,
the six point declaration was signed. However, Russia violated the
agreement by recognizing the declaration of independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Russia seemed to take revenge of Kosovo. The West
view this move not as their independence but rather Russian control
over Abkhazia and South Ossetia since these two separatist regions
are neighbor of Russia, their population are much less than Kosovo
and they are very weak in many aspects.
What are the consequences of Russia's action?
· The relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated
like the Cold War era. Foreign Minister of Britain Miliband visited
Ukraine where he made an attempt to establish the widest possible
coalition against Russia. The West in general responded harshly for
the Russian invasion.
· Russia had an advantage in the short term with its control over
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, Russia's policy towards Georgia
changed the West's view about the post-Cold War Russia. Russia needs
strong economic ties with the West since it tries to fully integrate
with the global economy and Russia has little to offer to the global
economy apart from commodity exports. On the other hand Europe's
dependency on energy, particularly, natural gas prevents the EU to
implement some kind of sanctions to Russia.
· Russia plays a dangerous game since there are territories within
the Russian Federation similar to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian
President Medvedev stated that people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
did not want to live under the control of Georgia. In this case one
might ask what Russia would do when peoples living under the Russian
Federation demand independence, and how Russia would react towards the
Chechen question after Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The arguments Russia used in order to support the
recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetian would
be used against Russia.
· Russia's strategy in order to overthrow and/or to punish Saakashvili
administration weakened opposition groups which were skeptical to
the West and supported close relations with Russia. People, who saw
that Russia would use military power easily and Russia posed threat
to Georgia's security, would support pro-Western policies. Just like
Stalin's territorial demands from Turkey after the Second World War
fastened Turkey's integration to the Western security system, Russia's
current policy towards the former Soviet Republics made these states
closer to the West. Russian administration stated that Russia did not
want the new Cold War to be broke out. However, the Russian policy
might ignite the new Cold War in different international atmosphere.
What Should Turkey Do?
· Turkey's position as a member of NATO and as a candidate of
the EU membership affected from the crisis, since Russia became an
important trade partner. Russian invasion of Georgia and its policy
to have control over Caspian energy resources and particularly its
policy to monopolize the natural gas transportation posed threat to
Turkey. Russia's decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia violated the six point declaration which was declared
after the talks between Medvedev and Sarkozy, and Russian move was
also against Turkey's proposal Caucasian Stability and Cooperation
Platform, since Russian decision of recognition made more difficult
to be put Russians and Georgians on the same table. In order to
protect its national interest Turkey needs to establish even closer
ties with the ally states in the region and Turkey's policy should
have the new dimension, which involves proposals and strategies to
the problems in the Caucasus. Turkey should be active in the issues
like Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the return of Ahiska Turks to Georgia
and the transportation of energy resources. Turkey should fasten its
efforts to reduce the dependency on Russia in energy field.
· Russian decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as
independent states will open new discussions and create new scenarios
regarding the territorial borders in the region. Medvedev rejected
the possibility of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's inclusion with
the Russian Federation. However, Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's
small population, their border with Russia and their economic
weakness leads questions regarding their sovereignty Vis a Vis
Russia. Most of the countries and particularly Western countries
believe that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be under the Russian
control in the future. Russian recognition of Abkhazia's and South
Ossetia's independence has been interpreted as Russia's revenge
of Kosovo's independence. These developments have implications on
Cyprus question. The two communities in Cyprus have lived separately
since 1974 (de facto separation in 1963). The two communities have
differences like ethnic, linguistic, religious and cultural etc., and
tense relations in the historical process exist in Cyprus. Although
Ahtisaari stated that Kosovo was the unique case and would not be
example of other cases in international area, as it is clear that
there are many similarities between Kosovo and Cyprus cases and even
compare with Kosovo example which has not ready to rule itself yet,
the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has all the ability
to run the state and the Turkish side proofed this in the last
25 years of its declaration of an independent state. Turkey's and
TRNC's position became stronger after Kosovo and the new discussion
might open after Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as independent states. Turkey should consider this new parameter in
terms of Cyprus question. Turkey should continue to support territorial
integrity of Georgia. But this does not mean that Turkey would leave
particularly Abkhazia to Russia. Turkey can make some move to connect
Abkhazia in terms of trade and transportation. Scholarship programmes
and cultural activities regarding Abkhazia will strengthen Turkey's
role in the region and at least prevent Abkhazia became total control
of Russia. Otherwise with its small population and Russian influence
Abkhazia would be considered another "region" within Russia. Turkey's
role might prevent this. Turkey's interest requires preventing Russian
influence to widen in the Caucasus.
· Turkey might get advantage from the tension between Russia and
the West. Turkey's EU membership process benefited from the new
international atmosphere. There are two different views within the EU
regarding Turkey's EU membership. One group of countries is against
Turkey's membership. Another group of countries is supportive to the
Turkey's EU membership with strategic reasons. The second group of
countries thinks that the EU needs to play active role in the Caucasus,
Central Asia and the Middle East. The EU should implement policies,
which has security dimension, towards these regions in order to
be effective global power. The EU with this political vision needs
Turkey as a member since Turkey is a regional power in the Caucasus,
Black Sea, Middle East and Balkan regions. Turkey's membership will
give the EU global power status and a chance to be effective in the
Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.
* Abant Izzet Baysal University, Department of International Relations
and ISRO/Eurasian expert.
--Boundary_(ID_0o0DGa0UyV2bpskXrdKluA)--
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Sept 8 2008
Turkey
Tension rose between Russia and the West after the Russian invasion
of the territory of Georgia reached a point that there were comments
about the return of the Cold War era. The President of France Sarkozy
warned about the catastrophic consequences if a "new Cold War"
broke out. During the Second World War democratic states of the West
cooperated with the Soviet Union against the axis of powers. However,
after the Red Army entered Eastern Europe to "liberate" the territory,
the Soviet administration did not allow freely elected governments
to come to the power in Eastern European states. Churchill stated
that an iron curtain was descended across the continent. The bipolar
world was established and struggle continued between the West and
East during the Cold War. With the disintegration of the Soviet
Union, countries were freed from the control of Moscow and the new
independent states joined the international community. Russia as a
successor of the Soviet Union first followed "Atlanticist" foreign
policy and distanced itself from the Caucasus and Central Asia. But
Russian foreign policy changed at the end of 1992 and finally "Near
Abroad" doctrine was declared by Moscow. Russia used every tool to
restore its dominance in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Eastern
European countries were rescued from the Russian pressure since
they integrated with the West. However, situation was different
in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia used ethnic tensions in
the Caucasus to put pressure to the Caucasus countries. Georgia and
Azerbaijan was easy targets for Russia. Russia supported the Armenian
side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in order to force Azerbaijan
for the membership of CIS. Georgia with diverse minority groups and
fragile political and economic structures faced Russian pressure to
accept the membership of the CIS and Russian military presence in
its territory. Russia supplied arms and training assistance to the
Abkhazian units in direct combat. As a result Georgia entered the
CIS and Russian troops deployed in the Georgian territory.
The developments after the 11th of September terrorist attacks
have a great impact in the Caucasus. The US military presence in
the region increased the US influence and in this aspect, together
with Azerbaijan, Georgia became an important state to fight against
terrorism.
The stability in Georgia became more important for the US. After the
"Rose Revolution" Georgia's pro-Western administration openly declared
Georgia's aspiration to be a member of NATO, and Georgia was against
the Russian military presence in the country. Post-11 September
environment turned against Russia. In this atmosphere, post-Cold War
rapprochement between Russia and the West started to be deteriorated
after the Kosovo's declaration of independence and the US and some
other Western countries' recognition of Kosovo as an independent
state. Together with the US's Missile Shield project, Russia felt that
the US followed containment policy. Russian discomfort increased when
the US's influence reached the Caucasus. The tension between Russia
and Georgia further increased due to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia
problems. In July 2008 Georgia recalled its ambassador from Russia. The
tension reached at the stage of conflict. Saakasvili's miscalculation
of possible Russian response to Georgia's action caused Russian
invasion of Georgia. After the talks between Sarkozy and Medvedev,
the six point declaration was signed. However, Russia violated the
agreement by recognizing the declaration of independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Russia seemed to take revenge of Kosovo. The West
view this move not as their independence but rather Russian control
over Abkhazia and South Ossetia since these two separatist regions
are neighbor of Russia, their population are much less than Kosovo
and they are very weak in many aspects.
What are the consequences of Russia's action?
· The relations between Russia and the West have deteriorated
like the Cold War era. Foreign Minister of Britain Miliband visited
Ukraine where he made an attempt to establish the widest possible
coalition against Russia. The West in general responded harshly for
the Russian invasion.
· Russia had an advantage in the short term with its control over
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, Russia's policy towards Georgia
changed the West's view about the post-Cold War Russia. Russia needs
strong economic ties with the West since it tries to fully integrate
with the global economy and Russia has little to offer to the global
economy apart from commodity exports. On the other hand Europe's
dependency on energy, particularly, natural gas prevents the EU to
implement some kind of sanctions to Russia.
· Russia plays a dangerous game since there are territories within
the Russian Federation similar to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian
President Medvedev stated that people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
did not want to live under the control of Georgia. In this case one
might ask what Russia would do when peoples living under the Russian
Federation demand independence, and how Russia would react towards the
Chechen question after Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. The arguments Russia used in order to support the
recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetian would
be used against Russia.
· Russia's strategy in order to overthrow and/or to punish Saakashvili
administration weakened opposition groups which were skeptical to
the West and supported close relations with Russia. People, who saw
that Russia would use military power easily and Russia posed threat
to Georgia's security, would support pro-Western policies. Just like
Stalin's territorial demands from Turkey after the Second World War
fastened Turkey's integration to the Western security system, Russia's
current policy towards the former Soviet Republics made these states
closer to the West. Russian administration stated that Russia did not
want the new Cold War to be broke out. However, the Russian policy
might ignite the new Cold War in different international atmosphere.
What Should Turkey Do?
· Turkey's position as a member of NATO and as a candidate of
the EU membership affected from the crisis, since Russia became an
important trade partner. Russian invasion of Georgia and its policy
to have control over Caspian energy resources and particularly its
policy to monopolize the natural gas transportation posed threat to
Turkey. Russia's decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia violated the six point declaration which was declared
after the talks between Medvedev and Sarkozy, and Russian move was
also against Turkey's proposal Caucasian Stability and Cooperation
Platform, since Russian decision of recognition made more difficult
to be put Russians and Georgians on the same table. In order to
protect its national interest Turkey needs to establish even closer
ties with the ally states in the region and Turkey's policy should
have the new dimension, which involves proposals and strategies to
the problems in the Caucasus. Turkey should be active in the issues
like Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the return of Ahiska Turks to Georgia
and the transportation of energy resources. Turkey should fasten its
efforts to reduce the dependency on Russia in energy field.
· Russian decision to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as
independent states will open new discussions and create new scenarios
regarding the territorial borders in the region. Medvedev rejected
the possibility of Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's inclusion with
the Russian Federation. However, Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's
small population, their border with Russia and their economic
weakness leads questions regarding their sovereignty Vis a Vis
Russia. Most of the countries and particularly Western countries
believe that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be under the Russian
control in the future. Russian recognition of Abkhazia's and South
Ossetia's independence has been interpreted as Russia's revenge
of Kosovo's independence. These developments have implications on
Cyprus question. The two communities in Cyprus have lived separately
since 1974 (de facto separation in 1963). The two communities have
differences like ethnic, linguistic, religious and cultural etc., and
tense relations in the historical process exist in Cyprus. Although
Ahtisaari stated that Kosovo was the unique case and would not be
example of other cases in international area, as it is clear that
there are many similarities between Kosovo and Cyprus cases and even
compare with Kosovo example which has not ready to rule itself yet,
the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) has all the ability
to run the state and the Turkish side proofed this in the last
25 years of its declaration of an independent state. Turkey's and
TRNC's position became stronger after Kosovo and the new discussion
might open after Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as independent states. Turkey should consider this new parameter in
terms of Cyprus question. Turkey should continue to support territorial
integrity of Georgia. But this does not mean that Turkey would leave
particularly Abkhazia to Russia. Turkey can make some move to connect
Abkhazia in terms of trade and transportation. Scholarship programmes
and cultural activities regarding Abkhazia will strengthen Turkey's
role in the region and at least prevent Abkhazia became total control
of Russia. Otherwise with its small population and Russian influence
Abkhazia would be considered another "region" within Russia. Turkey's
role might prevent this. Turkey's interest requires preventing Russian
influence to widen in the Caucasus.
· Turkey might get advantage from the tension between Russia and
the West. Turkey's EU membership process benefited from the new
international atmosphere. There are two different views within the EU
regarding Turkey's EU membership. One group of countries is against
Turkey's membership. Another group of countries is supportive to the
Turkey's EU membership with strategic reasons. The second group of
countries thinks that the EU needs to play active role in the Caucasus,
Central Asia and the Middle East. The EU should implement policies,
which has security dimension, towards these regions in order to
be effective global power. The EU with this political vision needs
Turkey as a member since Turkey is a regional power in the Caucasus,
Black Sea, Middle East and Balkan regions. Turkey's membership will
give the EU global power status and a chance to be effective in the
Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.
* Abant Izzet Baysal University, Department of International Relations
and ISRO/Eurasian expert.
--Boundary_(ID_0o0DGa0UyV2bpskXrdKluA)--
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress