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  • Karabakhis' Renewed Independence Hopes

    KARABAKHIS' RENEWED INDEPENDENCE HOPES
    By Karine Ohanian

    Institute for War and Peace Reporting
    Sept 11 2008
    UK

    Local politicians say goal of international recognition should be
    pursued more strongly in wake of Georgian war.

    The conflict in Georgia and Russia's recognition of Abkhazia and
    South Ossetia as independent states have fundamentally shaken up the
    unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh.

    Two of the three mediators in the OSCE body charged with resolving
    the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, the so-called Minsk Group - consisting
    of the United States, Russia and France - have clashed over Georgia,
    with Washington deeply opposed to Moscow backing the independence of
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

    "The mediators in the Karabakh peace process need some mediation
    themselves," commented Armen Sargsian, a deputy in the parliament in
    Nagorny Karabakh.

    "When you consider the fact that the two opposing poles are recognizing
    a right to self-determination - the West in Kosovo and Russia in
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia - their joint activity on Nagorny Karabakh
    will be interesting now."

    Armenian-majority Nagorny Karabakh declared independence from
    Azerbaijan in 1991 and has been de facto separate from Azerbaijan
    since war ended in 1994. But no one, not even Armenia, has recognised
    the territory as an independent state.

    The Nagorny Karabakh Republic has for years been part of an informal
    "Commonwealth of Independent States-2", maintaining links with the
    three other post-Soviet unrecognised territories of Abkhazia, South
    Ossetia and Transdniestria. They sent observers to each other's
    elections and conducted high-level meetings.

    About three years ago, Nagorny Karabakh began to distance itself a
    little from the others, saying that there were differences between
    the conflicts.

    However, this did not prevent the Karabakhi leadership from
    congratulating the Abkhaz and South Ossetians on their recognition
    by Moscow. Karabakh's president Bako Sahakian told his counterparts
    Sergei Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity, "The people of Karabakh have
    received this long-awaited news with sincere joy." He expressed the
    hope that "international recognition of independence will give a new
    impulse to the development and prosperity of our brotherly countries".

    Nagorny Karabakh's foreign ministry also issued a statement welcoming
    the developments and expressing the hope that "all powers interested
    in the peace of the region will draw conclusions from events that have
    occurred in the South Caucasus and will take real steps to resolve the
    problems that exist only by peaceful means and within the framework
    of regional stability".

    Politicians were more forthright, saying Karabakhis should now pursue
    the goal of international recognition more strongly. Parliamentarian
    Artur Tovmasian said that Nagorny Karabakh had just as good a case
    for independence as other breakaway territories.

    "We are proposing that recognising the independence of South Ossetia,
    Abkhazia and - why not? - Kosovo be put on the agenda of the parliament
    of the Nagorny Karabakh Republic," he said.

    Sargsian, a member of the nationalist Dashnaktsutiun party, agreed that
    Nagorny Karabakh should recognise the independence of "all unrecognised
    state entities", saying that this would be a step towards reconciling
    the interests of Washington and Moscow.

    Politician and humanitarian activist Karen Ohanjanian also argued
    for recognition of unrecognised territories, regardless of their
    international allegiances, "so that all people on earth can live in
    one mutually agreed world order".

    An important issue that arose in a public meeting in Stepanakert
    to discuss events in Georgia was whether Armenia should not now
    recognise the independence of Nagorny Karabakh, and whether Yerevan
    could recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia without
    hurting its relations with Georgia.

    The Georgian crisis had already caused a fuel shortage in Karabakh. "I
    was supposed to go to work in Yerevan and it was hard for me to find
    fuel at double the price," said Aren Baghdasarian, a driver. "There
    was also a problem in Yerevan. People said that a bridge in Georgia
    had been blown up and petrol was not being imported."

    Baghdasarian said that many of his friends were predicting there
    might also be shortages of flour and gas.

    In Karabakh courtyards and offices, the Georgian conflict has dominated
    conversations over the last month and also reawakened memories of
    their own war of the early Nineties.

    Ruzanna Khachatrian, a shop assistant, said that she cried when she
    saw broadcasts from South Ossetia on television. "I remembered how
    we lived with rats in the cellars when they were bombing us with
    the same kinds of Grad [rocket-launcher] artillery and planes and
    how every day innocent old people, women and children were dying,"
    she said. "I watched television and didn't know how to help these
    people and stop this bloodshed. It was terrible!"

    Svetlana Danielian, an economist, said, "If Georgia had been
    successful, the Azerbaijanis could have gone down the same
    route. Although I understand that our army is stronger, all the same
    no one, I think, wants to live through yet another war.

    "I'm angry that no one either here or in Azerbaijan takes into account
    the opinion of ordinary people. I'm angry that thousands of lives can
    be cut short because of the ambitions of two or three powers. But
    if war does start, we will still have to resist because we have no
    other place in this world except Karabakh."

    Former presidential candidate Masis Mailian, now an independent
    expert, said that he hoped the Georgian crisis would "cool hotheads"
    in Azerbaijan and elsewhere who thought they could retake breakaway
    territories by force. He said it had also revealed the weakness of
    international conflict-prevention efforts in the Caucasus.

    "Events in South Ossetia have shown up the low effectiveness
    of international mechanisms to stabilise the situation in the
    Georgian-Ossetian conflict zone," said Mailian. "The UN Security
    Council has been unable to take any proper decisions."

    Political analyst David Babayan said that he hoped recognition of
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia would set a precedent for Nagorny Karabakh
    but argued that this was not the most important point.

    "Recognition for Karabakh is only a matter of time, but fortunately
    people in Nagorny Karabakh are already ridding themselves of the
    so-called 'non-recognition complex' and they do not link their future
    exclusively to the recognition of our independence. The reverse is
    true - they think of recognition as something that follows on from
    achieving a certain level of statehood."

    Karine Ohanian is a correspondent with Demo newspaper in Nagorny
    Karabakh.
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