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POWER DISTRIBUTION IS EXPECTED AFRESH IN THE CAUCASUS REGION
PanARMENIAN.Net
16.09.2008 GMT+04:00
The question of "who-whom" has never been so seriously put in the
South Caucasus region.
Leaders and regional countries, which are trying to solve their
problems at the expense of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, have lately
demonstrated great "enthusiasm" in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation. The USA, France and Russia (co-chair countries)
are solving their problems too, just on a global scale. The US
Administration is presently in a rush: in a few months President
Bush's office term comes to an end, and after seven years of failure
he needs at least a minor diplomatic victory.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The regional visits of Mathew Bryza, US
representative of the OSCE Minsk Group, prove the above-mentioned
statement. In order to influence the conflicting parties, US applies
to "the stick and the carrot" policy. However, it is unclear what
is being offered to each of the conflicting sides. If in the case
of Armenia "the stick" is the assistance offered for the opening of
the Armenian-Turkish border, it would more easily pass under "the
carrot". Things are quite clear with Azerbaijan - oil, oil and once
again oil. As usual, Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been enthusiastically
declaring about its right over its own fate, has been overlooked in
the Â"marketÂ", which is, by the way, untimely and out of place. After
all, this conflict is not between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but between
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. And the "peacemakers" should take
it into consideration.
As President of the European Union, France is determined to
register itself in the body of regulation of the seventeen-year-old
conflict. However, everyone is eager to settle the conflict based
on the reality that can be traced back 20 years, before the USSR
breakdown. The regional map has considerably changed ever since,
but the mediators still harp on the same old story.
As usual Russia's activities directly oppose to the US interests. The
question of "who-whom" has never been so seriously shaped in the
South Caucasus region. The reckless move of the Georgian President in
South Ossetia proved to be gainful to Russia and tripped up the USA
and EU. The situation was so beneficial to Baku that it decided not
to speed up the proceedings. Strange as it may seem, there came en
end even to Ilham Aliyev's statements about the "the Azeri patience
that might give out one day." Moreover, after his meeting with RF
President Dmitry Medvedev Ilham Aliyev declared that in spite of all
the difficulties, there exist good prerequisites for the conflict
regulation. "In case the conflict is settled in the near future,
new perspectives would open for cooperation. We are neighbours and
neither of us is determined to leave the region. So, we should search
for mechanisms of efficient cooperation," Aliyev said. Meanwhile
some well-informed sources claim that in the conversation of the two
presidents Russia expressed the idea of refusing to support Armenia
and affirmed its determination to sell weapons to Baku at current
prices. It is not difficult to guess what it could mean for Armenia:
all the petrodollars will go to Russia's Treasury. In exchange for
it Azerbaijan will offer its oil and gas pipelines for the Russian
hydrocarbon.
The idea that "anyway, Armenia will stick to Russia" still dominates in
the RF. "Armenia has no other ally in the region. In case we recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh we'll have to break up relations with Azerbaijan
and Turkey. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be settled through
long-term negotiations in the presence of the Armenian, Azerbaijani,
Turkish and Russian sides," declared Alexander Sotnichenko, senior
lecturer at St. Petersburg State University.
With such turn of events the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will never be
settled. The more "peacemakers", the longer the process will last. The
OSCE Minsk Group still keeps the conflict regulation from further
discussions but its resources are almost exhausted. In all probability
this was the reason that Turkey and Iran decided to break into the
regulation process and show the world who the real power-holder is.
"The Caucasus region has important points for convergence but
developments during the past month caused many problems for the
region," Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declared in
a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart, Edward
Nalbandian, in Tehran. Mottaki noted that Iran, as a neighbor to
the Caucasus region, made a proposal on consultation among regional
countries with the aim of drawing up strategies for cooperation.
The minister added that the current visit by the Armenian foreign
minister to Tehran was a good opportunity to complete a phase of
negotiations on the Iranian proposal. "Iran and Armenia share common
interests and stances on regional developments," Mottaki said. He
also expressed Iran's readiness to mediate between neighboring Armenia
and Azerbaijan over the Karabakh issue.
Thus, Turkey's position is already known to us. It is determined to
join the OSCE Minsk Group. And the reflection of Turkey's initiative
on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is quite clear too. Apparently,
fresh power distribution should be expected in the region.
--Boundary_(ID_OgslE7T7PYY5wuW2y79H1w)--
PanARMENIAN.Net
16.09.2008 GMT+04:00
The question of "who-whom" has never been so seriously put in the
South Caucasus region.
Leaders and regional countries, which are trying to solve their
problems at the expense of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, have lately
demonstrated great "enthusiasm" in the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict regulation. The USA, France and Russia (co-chair countries)
are solving their problems too, just on a global scale. The US
Administration is presently in a rush: in a few months President
Bush's office term comes to an end, and after seven years of failure
he needs at least a minor diplomatic victory.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The regional visits of Mathew Bryza, US
representative of the OSCE Minsk Group, prove the above-mentioned
statement. In order to influence the conflicting parties, US applies
to "the stick and the carrot" policy. However, it is unclear what
is being offered to each of the conflicting sides. If in the case
of Armenia "the stick" is the assistance offered for the opening of
the Armenian-Turkish border, it would more easily pass under "the
carrot". Things are quite clear with Azerbaijan - oil, oil and once
again oil. As usual, Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been enthusiastically
declaring about its right over its own fate, has been overlooked in
the Â"marketÂ", which is, by the way, untimely and out of place. After
all, this conflict is not between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but between
Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan. And the "peacemakers" should take
it into consideration.
As President of the European Union, France is determined to
register itself in the body of regulation of the seventeen-year-old
conflict. However, everyone is eager to settle the conflict based
on the reality that can be traced back 20 years, before the USSR
breakdown. The regional map has considerably changed ever since,
but the mediators still harp on the same old story.
As usual Russia's activities directly oppose to the US interests. The
question of "who-whom" has never been so seriously shaped in the
South Caucasus region. The reckless move of the Georgian President in
South Ossetia proved to be gainful to Russia and tripped up the USA
and EU. The situation was so beneficial to Baku that it decided not
to speed up the proceedings. Strange as it may seem, there came en
end even to Ilham Aliyev's statements about the "the Azeri patience
that might give out one day." Moreover, after his meeting with RF
President Dmitry Medvedev Ilham Aliyev declared that in spite of all
the difficulties, there exist good prerequisites for the conflict
regulation. "In case the conflict is settled in the near future,
new perspectives would open for cooperation. We are neighbours and
neither of us is determined to leave the region. So, we should search
for mechanisms of efficient cooperation," Aliyev said. Meanwhile
some well-informed sources claim that in the conversation of the two
presidents Russia expressed the idea of refusing to support Armenia
and affirmed its determination to sell weapons to Baku at current
prices. It is not difficult to guess what it could mean for Armenia:
all the petrodollars will go to Russia's Treasury. In exchange for
it Azerbaijan will offer its oil and gas pipelines for the Russian
hydrocarbon.
The idea that "anyway, Armenia will stick to Russia" still dominates in
the RF. "Armenia has no other ally in the region. In case we recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh we'll have to break up relations with Azerbaijan
and Turkey. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be settled through
long-term negotiations in the presence of the Armenian, Azerbaijani,
Turkish and Russian sides," declared Alexander Sotnichenko, senior
lecturer at St. Petersburg State University.
With such turn of events the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will never be
settled. The more "peacemakers", the longer the process will last. The
OSCE Minsk Group still keeps the conflict regulation from further
discussions but its resources are almost exhausted. In all probability
this was the reason that Turkey and Iran decided to break into the
regulation process and show the world who the real power-holder is.
"The Caucasus region has important points for convergence but
developments during the past month caused many problems for the
region," Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki declared in
a joint press conference with his Armenian counterpart, Edward
Nalbandian, in Tehran. Mottaki noted that Iran, as a neighbor to
the Caucasus region, made a proposal on consultation among regional
countries with the aim of drawing up strategies for cooperation.
The minister added that the current visit by the Armenian foreign
minister to Tehran was a good opportunity to complete a phase of
negotiations on the Iranian proposal. "Iran and Armenia share common
interests and stances on regional developments," Mottaki said. He
also expressed Iran's readiness to mediate between neighboring Armenia
and Azerbaijan over the Karabakh issue.
Thus, Turkey's position is already known to us. It is determined to
join the OSCE Minsk Group. And the reflection of Turkey's initiative
on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is quite clear too. Apparently,
fresh power distribution should be expected in the region.
--Boundary_(ID_OgslE7T7PYY5wuW2y79H1w)--