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Vying For A Comeback, Turkey Talks To Old Foe

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  • Vying For A Comeback, Turkey Talks To Old Foe

    VYING FOR A COMEBACK, TURKEY TALKS TO OLD FOE
    by Judy Dempsey

    The International Herald Tribune
    September 18, 2008 Thursday
    France

    When Russian tanks rolled deep into Georgia last month, the security
    architecture of this volatile part of the Caucasus changed. By using
    force, Russia made a bid to reassert its power in a region it regards
    as its backyard.

    But it has a competitor: Turkey. Once the major player in the Caucasus
    during the 19th century, when the Ottoman Empire stretched across
    a vast area, Turkey today is using quiet diplomacy to re-establish
    its influence.

    This process could remake Turkey's ties with Europe, and re-order the
    complex energy and strategic equations of an increasingly important
    region.

    Turkey's president, Abdullah Gul, Enhanced Coverage LinkingAbdullah
    Gul, -Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days
    has reversed the policies of previous administrations by engaging
    Iran, much to the annoyance of the United States and Israel. Iran's
    president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was given full honors when he recently
    visited Ankara. In the Middle East, Turkey has taken on the role as
    mediator between Syria and Israel.

    But Ankara is also involved in another, even more ambitious diplomatic
    endeavor. It has started to talk to its neighbor Armenia, with
    whom Turkey cut all diplomatic relations in 1993 and closed the
    border. Then, Turkey had supported Azerbaijan, a Turkic-speaking
    nation, in its brutal war with Armenia over the enclave of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian region deep in Azerbaijan's territory.

    Despite the immense damage caused by the border closure for Armenian
    businesses, the authorities in the capital, Yerevan, will not restore
    diplomatic relations until Turkey acknowledges that crimes committed
    in 1915 against Armenians in the Ottoman Empire were genocide.

    So far, Turkey has refused to do so. Remarkably, that has not stopped
    Gul and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsian, from trying to
    repair relations.

    If they succeed, it could have profound repercussions for the Caucasus,
    said Zeyno Baran, director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the
    Hudson Institute in Washington.

    It could, for example, set in motion a diplomatic track to resolve
    the status of Nagorno-Karabakh which until now has prevented Armenia,
    Azerbaijan and Turkey from forging otherwise logical economic, trade,
    transport and political links. The future of hundreds of thousands
    of refugees caught up in the war could be resolved. Above all, this
    part of the Caucasus could become stable.

    "The region is already changing because of the Georgia-Russia crisis,"
    said Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in
    Yerevan. "Just think what would happen if Turkey and Armenia had
    normal relations."

    Turkish and Armenian diplomats started exploring such possibilities
    when they secretly met in the Swiss capital, Bern, in July. As a
    result of those talks, Gul, who belongs to the pro-Islamist governing
    Justice and Development Party, made several overtures to Armenia,
    a predominantly Christian country.

    In late July, he made a symbolic visit to medieval Armenian
    church ruins in the Turkish province of Kars, on the border with
    Armenia. After repeated requests by Yerevan, the Turks have begun
    restoration works.

    Then this month, Gul made a historic journey to Yerevan, where he
    attended the qualifying match for the World Cup between Turkey and
    Armenia (which Turkey won 2-0). There, the presidents and foreign
    ministers of both countries held talks.

    While it is too early to speak of any successful rapprochement,
    the talks prove that Turkey, a leading member of the NATO military
    alliance and candidate member of the EU, is not prepared to leave
    the Caucasus to fester.

    Nor does it want a new "Great Game," this time with American and
    Russian domination that would replay the 19th century rivalries between
    the Russian, British and Ottoman Empires. But Ankara's attempts to
    reach out to Armenia will test the skills and staying power of its
    leaders - and Russia's intentions.

    Russia has substantial economic and political interests in Armenia -
    interests fostered by Yerevan in order to alleviate the effects of
    Turkey's blockade and the standoff with Azerbaijan.

    Russia gained control of pipelines, energy distribution networks and
    other lucrative assets, pre-empting Western, especially American,
    companies in the process.

    In addition, Russia, adept at playing off sides in ethnic and
    regional conflicts, has tacitly supported Armenia's claims to
    Nagorno-Karabakh, adding to any wariness on Azerbaijan's part about
    using its well-equipped army to regain that territory.

    But with Turkey now making overtures to Armenia, analysts say Russia
    is looking at developments very carefully. "Russia still has all
    the cards in its hands," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the
    International Energy Agency in Paris. "Over 76 per cent of Turkey's
    trade with Russia is mostly oil and gas. Turkey must diversify its
    energy sources. It would give it more room for maneuver."

    For now, Russia still relies on Turkey as a transit country for its gas
    exports to Europe. It is trying to weaken that dependence by building
    the South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea that would link Russia
    to Bulgaria and bypass Turkey. That would mean Turkey losing much
    of its power as a transit country to negotiate with Russia over gas
    supplies and costs, while remaining dependent on Russia for its energy.

    So as Turkey tries to become a player in the Caucasus, alongside
    Russia, Birol says that the EU must start understanding the
    geopolitical importance of Turkey and Russia's role in the security
    of Turkey's energy supply.

    "The EU must help Turkey diversify its energy supplies by building
    Nabucco," Birol said, referring to the EU's much-delayed plans to build
    a gas pipeline that would bypass Russia and so help reduce Europe's,
    and Turkey's dependence on Russia.

    The delays in Nabucco are not going to deter Ankara from pursuing a
    rapprochement with Armenia. But sooner or later, if those talks are
    to move ahead, both sides will have to confront the Armenian massacres.

    Armenian and Turkish analysts say that dealing with this highly charged
    issue will require the utmost diplomatic skills. "We can't ignore the
    genocide," said Iskandaryan from the Caucasus Institute. "It is part
    of our history. But it does not mean you cannot have normal relations
    with Turkey once your neighbor recognizes your past."

    Nationalists in both countries and the powerful Armenian diaspora in
    America already oppose the Gul-Sargsian talks and are waiting for an
    opportunity to sabotage them. "Any reconciliation would undermine
    the hard-liners and ultranationalists," said Bahadir Kaleagasi,
    European director of the Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's
    Association in Brussels. Nevertheless, both leaders continue to walk
    a tightrope. So far, they have kept their nerve.
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