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    HOME TRANSDNIESTRIAN CONFLICT UNTHAWING
    Vladimir Solovyev

    Kommersant
    Sep. 22, 2008
    Russia

    Moscow makes peace between Chisinau and Tiraspol before NATO
    meeting The second meeting this year between Moldovan President
    Vladimir Voronin and leader of the unrecognized Transdniestrian
    Moldovan Republic Igor Smirnov is about to take place. That is but
    a prelude to an even bigger event, the signing of a joint statement
    on the resolution of the longtime conflict with the preservation of
    Moldova's territorial integrity. That document will be signed in the
    presence of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and will launch the
    final settlement process of the Transdniestrian problem. Moscow is
    rushing to show off its successes in this field before the December
    meeting of NATO foreign ministers.

    Authorities in Chisinau and Tiraspol are preparing for the meeting of
    the two leaders. Last week, Smirnov announced that he had instructed
    the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry to prepare materials for the
    negotiations. Smirnov said contacts were being renewed in order to
    normalize relations between the two sides of the Dniester River and
    "ensure peace, stability and prosperous conditions for the peoples
    of the republic."

    Smirnov did not specify the date of the talks. Kommersant has learned
    from a source in the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry, however,
    that the meeting will be this week. "We insisted that it take place
    on September 19, but that didn't suit the Moldovan side. Chisinau is
    suggesting September 23, but that isn't good for us," a high-placed
    source in the Transdniestrian Foreign Ministry said. "Now we are
    talking about the second half of the week." The source said the
    negotiations could take place earlier as well.

    The place of the meeting remains unchanged. Voronin and Smirnov
    will meet in the city of Bendery, where their first face-to-face
    meeting in seven years took place on April 11. Since then, events
    have taken place that clearly show Moscow's desire for a final
    settlement of the Transdniestrian problem and peace between Chisinau
    and Tiraspol. Medvedev received Voronin and Smirnov separately in
    his Sochi residence and assured them both that Russia would become
    the guarantor of the future agreement between them.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov repeated that promise at the
    end of the week speaking to the Federation Council. "Russia will
    actively cooperate in the peaceful resolution of all conflicts within
    the CIS on the basis of international law and respect for all the
    principles of the UN Charter and previously reached agreements. We will
    therefore realize our intermediary role in the negotiation process;
    that applies in full measure to Transdniestria and Nagorny Karabakh,"
    Lavrov stated. To make sure the Transdniestrian leadership was not
    tempted to demand recognition for their republic by analogy with
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Lavrov clearly stated that "The South
    Ossetia crisis did not set a precedent."

    The negotiations between Voronin and Smirnov are just part of the
    Russian plan to resolve the longtime conflict. In Bendery, they are
    supposed to agree on positions and prepare for a more significant
    event, a joint meeting on Russian territory in the presence of the
    Russian president. That moment is meant to be the turning point in the
    negotiating process. Kommersant has learned that, under Medvedev's
    watchful eye, the leaders of the conflicting sides are to sign a
    joint statement of adherence to the principles of sovereignty and
    territorial integrity. A commitment to beginning negotiations on the
    legal status of the Transdniestrian Moldovan Republic within a united
    Moldova is another key point in the document.

    Kommersant sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry say that
    the historical trilateral meeting should take place no later than
    November so that Moscow can show weighty peacekeeping accomplishments
    in Transdniestria in time for the December meeting of the foreign
    ministers of the NATO member states. Neither Chisinau nor Tiraspol
    is opposed to that. Voronin, whose country will hold parliamentary
    elections in the spring, has agreed to Moscow's condition that his
    country's neutral military and political status be put down in writing
    in a separate document. Smirnov is also showing his loyalty. After
    his meeting with Medvedev, he stopped demanding independence for
    his republic.

    "At present, Moscow's desire to launch the peacekeeping process
    exceeds all others and Smirnov and Voronin understand that very well,"
    a high-placed source in Chisinau commented. "It is important for Russia
    to show a positive result in December. Considering the consequences
    of the events in the Caucasus, it will look very nice."

    If events develop as Moscow plans, Russia will prove to the West that
    it is able to solve territorial problems in the former Soviet Union
    not only with the use of military forces, but by diplomatic methods
    as well. In addition, the United States and European Union will
    have the chance to participate directly in the settlement between
    Chisinau and Tiraspol, since Moscow does not object to completing
    the process it has begun in the 5+2 format (Russia, Ukraine, OSCE,
    Moldova, Transdniestria, the U.S. and EU).
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