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Ankara: Unfreezing The Frozen Conflicts: Is Nagorno-Karabakh Next?

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  • Ankara: Unfreezing The Frozen Conflicts: Is Nagorno-Karabakh Next?

    UNFREEZING THE FROZEN CONFLICTS: IS NAGORNO-KARABAKH NEXT?

    Hurriyet
    HotNewsTurkey.com
    Wednesday, October 01, 2008 14:15
    Turkey

    The developments of the summer of 2008 in Caucasus are likely to open
    the Pandora's box and to have an impact on the frozen conflicts that
    are the legacy of the Soviet Union.

    Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two breakaway
    regions of Georgia, as independent states is sure to have
    ripple effects on other conflicts -- Moldova's Transdniester and
    Nagorno-Karabakh, a region within Azerbaijan but invaded by Armenia.

    The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory differs from the other frozen
    conflicts.

    Unlike South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transdniester, the population of
    Nagorno-Karabakh does not hold Russian passports and does not seek
    extensive Russian patronage.

    Rather, its goal is outright independence, or barring that,
    reintegration with Armenia.

    Still the road to resolve this conflict goes through Moscow as well.

    The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia began in 1988 due to
    Armenian territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

    Since 1992, Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20 percent of
    Azerbaijan including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven
    surrounding districts.

    INTENSIFIED DIPLOMACY The efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
    problem seem to be intensified after Georgia-Russia conflict as the
    situation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia increased fears of a renewed
    violence and escalation of tension.

    Turkey, who does not have any diplomatic ties with Armenia, had
    proposed the formation of a Caucasian platform, while its president
    paid a landmark visit Yerevan in early September.

    During the United Nations summit in New York last week a couple of
    multi-sided meetings held on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Turkish foreign minister brought his counterparts from Azerbaijan
    and Armenia together, while Minsk Group also gathered to work on a
    meeting of two disputed countries' leaders.

    A breakthrough in solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would also
    contribute to the warmer atmosphere between Turkey and Armenia, as
    well as help the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between
    two neighbors.

    MEDIATING EFFORTS Some suggest Turkey could act like a mediator between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan as the relations between the U.S. and Russia,
    co-chairs the Minsk Group with France, sour after the Georgia issue.

    In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement at which
    time the active hostilities ended. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk
    Group are currently holding peaceful negotiations.

    Azerbaijan, on the other hand, signaled it want Turkey as the
    co-chairman of the Minsk Group.

    Both of these suggestions, however, is unlikely given the fact
    Armenia's unwillingness to give Turkey, who has historic and cultural
    ties with Azerbaijan, such a role.

    Turkey had cut its diplomatic relations and closed the border with
    Armenia after it occupied Azerbaijani territory.

    Some 10 percent of the Azeri population was displaced due to a
    series of bloody clashes both between and within the two neighboring
    countries.

    RUSSIA FACTOR Russia helped Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh
    war and has a military base in Armenia.

    Russia's efforts to gain a grip on Azerbaijan's vast energy resources
    has also served Armenia's interests in Nagorno-Karabakh by blocking
    a resolution of the conflict in Azerbaijan's favor.

    And now Azerbaijan signals it could take a step towards Moscow while
    keeping its relations with the West on balance. Azerbaijani leadership
    said in New York Russia is a key player in the process.

    Meanwhile after Georgia conflict Baku had decided to divert its West
    energy exports routes to Russia and Iran.

    Although the process to resolve the conflict has sped up, the
    expectations of a rapid solution are low.

    Moreover Baku still insists the solution must based on the territorial
    integrity of the region, while Yerevan says the region could and
    should be recognized as independent state.

    This is more than enough to show that there is still a rocky road
    ahead.
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