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Why Turkey Became More Active In South Caucasus

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  • Why Turkey Became More Active In South Caucasus

    WHY TURKEY BECAME MORE ACTIVE IN SOUTH CAUCASUS
    Rovshan Ibrahimov, Head of the International Relations Department, Gafgaz University, Baku

    Eurasian Home Analytical Resource
    October 1, 2008
    Russia

    A new situation has emerged in South Caucasus after Russia's military
    operation in South Ossetia. The balance of powers in regional conflicts
    has changed. Russia not only dislodged the Georgian forces from South
    Ossetia but also recognized the independence of South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia. As a result, the approach of the other countries to the
    region started to change too.

    During the conflict between Russia and Georgia Turkey took an active
    position becoming a mediator between the parties. Prime Minister of
    Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited both Moscow and Tbilisi.

    Recep Erdogan proposed drawing up the Caucasian Security Pact. Russia,
    Georgia, Azerbaijan and indirectly Armenia supported this initiative.

    For all that, this project lacks concrete proposals and is hard
    to implement. Its realization is improbable due to Russo-Georgian
    confrontation and Azerbaijan and Armenia's reluctance to step up
    cooperation to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Nevertheless, on September 6, President of Turkey Abdullah Gul visited
    Yerevan on the invitation of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to the
    Armenia-Turkey football match. In Armenia great importance was attached
    to this visit. It is necessary for Armenia to solve the isolation
    problem. The temporary problems with freightage from Georgia during
    the Russian-Georgian war resulted in the fuel shortage in Armenia.

    The visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul was planned before the
    Russo-Georgian conflict but after Turkey and Armenia had got into
    the same group of the world football championship.

    In the 1970s U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger took the similar
    steps to improve the relations with China. When the American ping-pong
    team went to China, the countries established diplomatic relations
    sometimes called 'Ping Pong Diplomacy'.

    Why has Turkey become more active in South Caucasus? Till now Turkey
    has maintained the relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia, but not
    with Armenia. The projects of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
    and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline are evidence of interaction
    between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The laying of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars
    railroad would strengthen the cooperation between those two countries.

    Georgia plays a key role in the realization of those projects. The
    major South Caucasian roads go via its territory. It is significant
    that President of Turkey Abdullah Gul backed the creation of the
    regional economic alliance between Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

    Armenia cannot participate in such regional projects because of
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and its territorial claims on Azerbaijan's
    territory. Azerbaijan and Turkey say that Armenian border will be
    opened only if Armenia gives up Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Director of the Institute of History of the National Academy of
    Sciences of Armenia Ashot Melkonyan said that the isolation made
    Armenia lose $500 million annually. However, even now that the Armenian
    border is closed, trade between Armenia and Turkey exceeds dozens
    of million dollars. Goods from Armenia to Turkey and vice versa are
    supplied through the third countries, mainly through Georgia.

    The other problem is that Armenia and the Armenian diaspora demand
    that Turkey recognize the 1915 events in Ottoman Empire as genocide
    against the Armenians.

    Those factors influenced the foreign policy pursued by Turkey in
    South Caucasus. But in summer 2008 the foreign policy changed. Why?

    Then the governing Justice and Development Party made the political
    situation stable. Justice and Development Party presidential candidate
    Abdullah Gul had the best chance of being elected president from the
    National Assembly. However, he was not elected the first time. Only
    when the early parliamentary elections in Turkey were held the Justice
    and Development Party established its record taking 47% of the vote
    and Abdullah Gul was elected president.

    On March 14, 2008 Turkey's chief prosecutorAbdurrahman Yalcinkaya
    asked the Constitutional Court to banthe partyalleging that it poses
    a threat to Turkey's secular regime. But the constitutional court
    turned down the appeal.

    Having solved the domestic problems, the Turkish authorities can
    switch over to the foreign policy.

    The second reason is Turkey hopes that if its relations with Armenia
    improve, Armenia will drop the demand that Turkey recognize genocide
    of the Armenians, in particular since solution to the problems with
    Armenia is one of the conditions for Turkey's joining the EU.

    The 1915 events are the main stumbling block in the relations between
    Armenia and Turkey. Here the Armenian authorities' influence is just
    nominal and the Armenian diaspora plays a predominant role. Yerevan
    has no leverage over its diaspora - quite the contrary. What is more,
    the Armenians are going to observe the centenary of the events in 2015.

    That means Turkey is far from carrying out its foreign-policy
    priorities because it has no long-term strategy towards the
    region. While in the 1990s this could be accounted for by rapid change
    of the coalition governments, the lack of priorities under the Justice
    and Development Party is explained by the fact that the foreign-policy
    strategy of the new government pays too little attention to South
    Caucasus and Central Asia.
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