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Obama, Turkey And The G-Resolution

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  • Obama, Turkey And The G-Resolution

    Forbes Magazine
    Obama, Turkey And The G-Resolution
    Asli Aydintasbas 09.29.08, 4:00 PM ET

    There is no doubt that much of the Muslim world is rooting for Barack
    Obama in the U.S. presidential race. The 47-year-old Illinois senator
    is a favorite son to many in the Middle East who are enamored of his
    middle name "Hussein" or even harbor the belief that the senator is a
    closet Muslim having to hide his true colors to get a place in the
    American political establishment. Still others welcome the idea of an
    Obama presidency as a shift from the unpopular Middle East policies of
    the Bush administration.

    But here in Turkey, the Obamania in the rest of the Muslim world was
    quick to fade early in the race. Once intrigued by the young senator
    and his life story, much of the Ankara establishment and the Turkish
    elite now say they prefer John McCain to snatch the presidential seat.


    And all this has little to do with Barack Obama himself.

    Modern Turkey is a nation still sorting through the cultural and
    political clashes that have emerged with the foundation of a secular
    modern republic from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1923. It is a
    nation accustomed to both domestic and foreign conflict and obsessed
    with the idea of its loneliness on the world stage. So it is no
    surprise that, on any given subject under the sun, most Turks would
    ask, "But is it good for Turkey?"


    In this case, the political establishment in Ankara and Turkey's
    secular elite seem to think that Barack Obama is not good for Turkey.

    "It all has to do with the Armenian issue," a senior Turkish
    politician tells me, referring to what is essentially a semantic
    problem, but one with ripple effects far beyond the confines of this
    region. Turks and Armenians have long disagreed on what to call the
    tragic events that took place in the eastern provinces of the Ottoman
    Empire in 1915. Turks say the forced deportations and massacres of
    Christian Armenians took place in the context of a civil war and do
    not amount to "genocide." For Armenians in the neighboring Armenia or
    spread around the world in a large diaspora, this is the first
    genocide of modern times and as such deserves a universal recognition.


    What does all this have to do with Barack Obama? With almost no direct
    contact, Turks and Armenians have long been fighting the issue out in
    distant national forums--most notably in the U.S. Congress. Almost
    every year, the powerful Armenian-American lobby attempts to pass a
    resolution from Congress marking the events of 1915 as "genocide." The
    government of Turkey has its own lobbying effort in Washington, almost
    solely dedicated to the "Armenian issue," and prevents the bill at the
    expense of threatening to sever strategic ties with the United
    States. (Having seen Turkey significantly reduce economic and military
    relations with France when the French Senate passed a similar bill,
    Washington knows the issue goes far beyond a semantic exercise.)


    Successive American presidents have intervened in the 11th hour to
    kill off the g-resolution in order not to damage relations with a key
    ally and next door neighbor of Iraq's. Last year, House Speaker Nancy
    Pelosi and other congressional supporters had to drop the resolution
    at the last minute when the White House warned it would cripple ties
    with Turkey and impact the war effort in Iraq.


    Yet Barack Obama has pledged he would support a genocide resolution.
    Worse for Ankara, his running mate Senator Joe Biden has long been an
    ally of Greek and Armenian lobbies in Washington and sponsored bills
    questioning Turkish policies on Cyprus and Armenia.


    "John McCain on the other hand knows Turkey well and can understand
    our strategic value," the same Turkish politician tells me. Ankara
    essentially prefers a man who would have a nostalgic appreciation of
    Turkey's role in the Cold War and in containing Saddam Hussein, and
    not push for a "paradigm change" in that equation.

    "There is also the Clinton factor," a western diplomat notes. Most
    Turks were enamored of Bill Clinton when he visited Turkey in the wake
    of a major earthquake in 1999 and pushed for policies that elevated
    the Turkish-U.S. relationship to a strategic partnership on energy
    and regional issues.

    Bill and Hillary Clinton have since visited Turkey and maintain ties
    with the Turkish government. (Turkey's prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan,
    makes a point of seeing the former president or his wife on nearly all
    his U.S. trips.)

    "Obama defeating Hillary did not go down well here," says the diplomat.

    When Turks watch the results of U.S. elections in November, they will
    do with an eye toward April 16, the day Armenians commemorate what
    Turkish officials call "the so-called genocide," and hope Obama will
    not win.

    Asli Aydintasbas is an Istanbul-based journalist and former Ankara
    bureau chief of the newspaper Sabah.
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