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  • Tehran: EU, U.S. Conduct Two-Pronged Diplomacy In Caucasus

    EU, U.S. CONDUCT TWO-PRONGED DIPLOMACY IN CAUCASUS
    By Ahto Lobjakas

    Payvand's Iran News
    10/02/08
    Iran

    BRUSSELS (RFE/RL) -- The two-pronged diplomatic strategy by the EU
    and the United States is very evident in the South Caucasus this week
    and shows what the division of labor between Brussels and Washington
    will be.

    The EU has its sights set on the short term. Trying to exploit whatever
    influence it has with Moscow, Brussels' aim is to get the Russian
    troops to pull back from as much of Georgian territory as possible.

    The United States, on the other hand, is focusing on the longer-term
    objective of shoring up the resolve of the governments in the region
    to stand up to Moscow. It believes Azerbaijan is key to this effort.

    The EU on October 1 formally launched its 340-strong monitoring
    mission in Georgia. Armored cars carrying unarmed EU observers set
    out from their bases with the aim of entering the so-called buffer
    zone set up by Russian troops outside the administrative borders of
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

    In Tbilisi for the inauguration of the monitoring mission, EU
    foreign-policy chief Javier Solana on September 30 reiterated the
    bloc's view that Russia has committed itself to withdrawing its troops
    from the "buffer zone" within 10 days of the observers' deployment.

    "I hope very much that by the end of [October 10] that Russian forces
    will be withdrawn," Solana said. "That is the aim that we have, and
    that is, at least for the first part, the obligation that we have
    from the agreement. And we'd like very much to see that done."

    Complications From Both Sides

    Unfortunately for the EU, its observer mission had trouble gaining
    access to the areas in Georgian proper that are still controlled by
    Russian soldiers.

    Moscow is obliged to cease all military activity outside Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia under the terms of an agreement it signed with
    the EU on September 8. That agreement modifies an earlier accord,
    reached on August 12, which allowed Russia to carry out "additional
    security measures" in Georgia outside Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

    The August 12 agreement also stipulates that an international
    conference will be convened in Geneva on October 15 to discuss the
    "stability" and "security" of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

    Preparations for the conference have been fraught with
    difficulty. Russia insists on the full presence of the Abkhaz and
    South Ossetian authorities -- both of which it has recognized as
    independent countries. Georgia, on the other hand, vehemently rejects
    any arrangements that could be seen as conferring independent status
    on either region.

    As a result, the first talks on October 15 will be low-key, featuring
    junior ministers from Georgia and Russia as well as mediators from
    the EU. They will be preceded on October 14 -- also in Geneva --
    by a summit of top officials from the United Nations, OSCE, EU,
    and the United States.

    President Mikheil Saakashvili indicated last month that Tbilisi is
    prepared to talk to the separatists about refugees, but not the status
    of the regions.

    "The next stage is, and a parallel stage is returning [internally
    displaced persons] in secure and dignified conditions, getting
    internationalization of the process -- but not of the status, I
    have to say the process -- and getting Russians out of Georgia's
    territory, deoccupation of Georgia, because these are, right now,
    territories occupied by a foreign military power against the will of
    the government of a sovereign, independent country," Saakashvili said.

    To complicate matters further, Georgia has launched criminal
    proceedings against the Abkhaz and South Ossetian leaderships,
    accusing them of high treason and banditry.

    Regional Confidence-Building

    While the United States has remained on the sidelines in Georgia,
    Deputy Undersecretary of State John Negroponte's visit to Azerbaijan
    is the second in recent weeks by a senior U.S. official. In early
    September, Vice President Dick Cheney was reportedly given a cool
    reception by Baku, but this appears not to have put off Washington.

    With considerable gas and oil reserves of its own, Azerbaijan holds
    the only viable transit route between Central Asia and Europe that
    bypasses Russia. Without Baku's cooperation, the EU's projected
    Nabucco pipeline between bringing Caspian hydrocarbons through Turkey
    to Austria would be doomed -- and Russia's grip on the EU's energy
    supplies would tighten.

    Azerbaijan and Armenia have adopted a wait-and-see posture in the
    aftermath of the Russian tour de force in Georgia in early August.

    Western diplomats say Azerbaijan's self-confidence, which had been
    buoyed by the huge windfall profits it was making from oil and gas,
    has been visibly dented. Along with it were the short-term hopes it may
    have entertained about retaking Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia by force.

    Armenia, forced into an uneasy alliance with Russia because of its
    standoff with Azerbaijan, is now worried it may itself become a
    target for Moscow. Yerevan has in recent weeks taken steps to break
    out of the regional isolation it finds itself in. On September 6,
    Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a landmark visit to Yerevan. On
    September 30, Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian arrived in Tbilisi
    for his first visit to Georgia since the war.

    Diplomats in the region say Yerevan is pressing Turkey to open up the
    mutual border, which has been closed since 1993. Western officials
    say there are rumors that in order to secure a breakthrough in
    relations with Turkey, Armenia may consider returning to Azerbaijan
    five of the seven Azerbaijani provinces it currently occupies around
    Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Currently, Georgia provides the only overland access route between
    Armenia and the outside world, and maintaining good relations with
    Tbilisi remains a must for Yerevan.

    The delicate interdependence between the three countries will be
    brought into sharp relief this winter. Like last winter, Georgia
    will need Azerbaijani gas to survive. Aside from Iran, Armenia can
    only turn to Georgia in its quest for gas as it lacks a border with
    Russia and remains on nontrading terms with both Azerbaijan and Turkey.

    Meanwhile, Russia is actively seeking to reestablish control over the
    region. Moscow is said to be intent on frustrating any rapprochement
    between Yerevan and Ankara, and has blocked Armenian attempts to
    restore a key railway link to Turkey that is owned by a Russian
    company.

    Russia is also putting pressure on Baku. Russia has offered to buy all
    of Azerbaijan's gas and oil exports at world prices. There are also
    reports that Russian passports are being handed out in Azerbaijan's
    restive north, bordering Daghestan, which could serve as a warning for
    Baku and certainly evokes uneasy parallels with the Russian action
    in the Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
    in August.

    Copyright (c) 2008 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio
    Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington
    DC 20036.
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