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  • Risk is always intermediary's

    WPS Agency, Russia
    What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
    October 27, 2008 Monday



    RISK IS ALWAYS INTERMEDIARY'S

    ASPIRING TO BROKER THE DIALOGUE BETWEEN YEREVAN AND BAKU, DMITRY
    MEDVEDEV RUNS A CERTAIN RISK; Russia offers itself as a broker in the
    Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict.

    President Dmitry Medvedev made his first official visit to Armenia and
    met with his counterpart Serj Sargsjan. Medvedev and Sargsjan
    discussed Russian-Armenian economic cooperation and international
    affairs.

    The situation in the Caucasus is different from what it was before the
    August events in South Ossetia. First, Georgian military aggression
    against South Ossetia and recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by
    Russia showed pointlessness of attempts to solve ethnic conflicts by
    sheer strength. Second, American military and political resources
    failed to live up to Georgia's expectations (it had counted on a
    solution to its problems). Third, Turkey is emerging as another
    instrumental player in matters of regional security. No wonder
    Russian-Armenian contacts are so frequent these days. Medvedev's
    negotiations with Sargsjan in Yerevan became their fifth meeting this
    year.

    Delicate parity of forces and interests in the triangle formed by
    Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku does not allow for the assumption that the
    dialogue between Russia and Armenia is directed against Azerbaijan. On
    the contrary, it was announced during the talks in Yerevan that the
    Karabakh conflict should be settled on the basis of compromises and
    talks. Medvedev said at the press conference that a meeting between
    three presidents was to be arranged in the near future. "I hope it
    will take place in Russia," Medvedev said.

    Azerbaijan has been expecting it ever since President Ilham Aliyev's
    visit to Moscow not long ago where restoration of the dialogue between
    Baku and Yerevan was discussed. This is not Moscow's first attempt to
    broker Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement. Some experts assume
    that the concerned parties must be considering some new scenario of
    conflict settlement. "I'm not going to elaborate on nuances because
    they are nuances which is what makes them so valuable," Medvedev said
    in Yerevan. It apparently means that participants in the conflict are
    disappointed in the OSCE Minsk Group and resolved to find a solution
    on their own.

    The conflict affects both countries. Baku is compelled to execute
    complicated political and diplomatic maneuvers to enlist world powers'
    support for its territorial integrity. As for Armenia, it is
    essentially in an economic blockade. By and large, the conflict
    impedes development of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

    It is necessary to find a solution that will stabilize the situation
    rather than upset it. Doing so is going to be enormously difficult
    because the involved states and all sorts of intermediaries have
    seemingly discussed all plausible variants over the years.

    Dialogues between Yerevan and Moscow on the one hand and Baku and
    Ankara on the other may result in appearance of another
    "irritant". Should these four capitals opt for a common economic,
    political, and cultural zone, it may enable them to approach the
    problem at hand from a different direction altogether.

    In a word, Medvedev is running a certain risk as the broker between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Source: Rossiiskiye Vesti, No 37, October, 2008, p. 1
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