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  • Energy, Coming Through

    Energy, Coming Through


    November 1, 2008

    By Sanobar Shermatova
    Special to Russia Profile

    Peacemaking efforts by Turkey and the Minsk group of the OSCE aimed at
    settling the Karabakh conflict have an obvious energy motive.

    The recent visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia is not
    only a small revolution in Turkish-Armenian relations. It is gives hope
    that the Karabakh problem will be solved. It is widely known that
    Ankara, which maintains friendly connections with the ethnically close
    Azerbaijan, has not forgiven Yerevan for the war over Karabakh. It has
    specified the return of this territory to Azerbaijan as a condition for
    normalizing the relationship with Armenia (it is a known fact that as a
    result of a bloody war in the early 1990s, Armenia conquered not only
    the territory of Karabakh, populated by ethnic Armenians and an
    Azerbaijani minority, which formally belonged to Azerbaijan, but also
    some adjacent Azerbaijani territories that Yerevan calls `the safety
    zone'). The Armenian side, in turn, not only refused to meet Turkey's
    demand halfway, but also demanded acknowledgement of the Armenian
    genocide in Turkey in 1915-1916. Thus, the meeting of Abdullah Gul and
    Serge Sargsyan implied if not an armistice, then a new ideology for
    this part of Eurasia.

    Upon his return home, the Turkish president made a press statement at
    the airport: `Armenia promised to withdraw from the occupied lands of
    Azerbaijan!' Armenia's President Serge Sargsyan did not refute his
    Turkish counterpart's words, but his phrasing was slightly different:
    `Gul said that he is willing to assist in regulating Armenia-Azerbaijan
    relations, and I gladly accepted the offer, because only an abnormal
    person can refuse to accept assistance.' This broached the new round of
    the big players' struggle over Armenia'a country that has been isolated
    since the early 1990s.

    A key to Nabucco?

    A Turkish expert from the Center for Strategic Studies, Sinan Ogan, is
    convinced that adding Armenia to the Nabucco pipeline project is `one
    of the main goals of the U.S. and the EU policy in the region.' This
    project, according to Ogan, was also discussed during the recent visit
    by American Vice President Dick Chaney to Azerbaijan. However, this
    plan, just like any others, depends on the regulation of the problem of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, which was seized by Armenians in the early 1990s. In
    the past, the United States had put a lot of effort into involving
    Armenia in the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, but did not succeed. The
    territory in question is the stumbling block for any economic
    initiatives in the region.

    The Nabucco gas pipeline is supposed to circumvent Russia and connect
    Europe with Central Asia. According to the plan, a pipeline is to be
    laid on the bottom of the Caspian Sea; it is expected to deliver
    natural gas from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia to
    Europe. The Western portion of the main will stretch from Georgia's
    western border through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary into
    Austria. There might be a southern branch connected to this gas
    pipeline, originating from Iraq and the countries of the Persian Gulf,
    and, possibly, from Iran. The nearest possible date of gas going
    through the line is 2012. The length of the pipeline will total 3,300
    kilometers. The overall cost of the Nabucco project is estimated at
    ?¬5.8 billion. Some of the project's participants are Austria's OMV,
    Bulgarian Bulgargas, Hungarian MOL, Romanian Transgas and Turkish
    Botash. The possibility of working together with Russia's Gazprom is
    also considered.

    A Baku-based political analyst, Rasim Musabekov, noted that it is
    doubtful that Nabucco, which is aimed at circumventing Russia, will
    pass through the territory of Armenia, given the current level of
    animosity in the Azerbaijani-Armenian relationship. `It is impossible
    to realize this project without Azerbaijan, while it is possible to
    realize it without Armenia. This is why until the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict is resolved, I rule out the possibility of passing the
    Trans-Caspian gas pipeline through the territory of Armenia,' he said.

    Whose Karabakh is it?

    Thus, the EU's plans to achieve energy independence from Russia
    directly depend on a small territory that Armenia and Azerbaijan are
    fighting over. Countries participating in the regulation of the
    conflict, as well as Turkey, speak about the territorial integrity of
    Azerbaijan. But in reality, Karabakh's return to Azerbaijan looks
    utopian: Armenia had made the acknowledgment and the projection of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, founded by Armenians, the cornerstone of its
    foreign policy.

    Recently, the Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian made a
    statement in which he said that `the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict is possible only through recognition of the Artsakhi people's
    right to self-determination.' Thus, it is obvious that the Armenian
    side is not ready for any concessions. What is there to agree about,
    then? Azerbaijani political experts think that the maximum of what can
    be considered is the return of seven districts around Karabakh,
    occupied in the early 1990s, to Azerbaijan's jurisdiction. And in
    return for this, Armenia is expecting some concessions.

    Maybe the counter-offers will be connected with the removal of
    Azerbaijan's and Turkey's blockade of transport routes. The Armenian
    economy is in desperate need of this: today, Armenia's path out to the
    `big world' lies through Georgia, whose border with Russia has been
    blocked for many months now. Meanwhile, as a result of the recent
    conflict between Moscow and Tbilisi, the bridge connecting the two
    republics was blown up. This caused damage to the Armenian economy
    estimated at a minimum of $60 million.

    Blessed are the peacekeepers

    Turkey, who is trying on the cloak of a peacekeeper, will also gain
    from this. The resolution of the old Karabakh problem (even if only
    partial) might `unseal' the Southern Caucasus for economic projects,
    which Ankara is in a dire need of. Moreover, removing the Karabakh
    problem might also bring Turkey some significant political
    dividends'its role in this region will increase dramatically.

    The peace initiative brought forward by Ankara was not met with
    understanding in the United States. The Turkish Daily News noted that
    Washington exhibited a very cold reaction to the initiative on creating
    a regional security platform. The newspaper quoted a statement made by
    the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, a
    facilitator in the process of regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict;
    he admitted that he was surprised by this suggestion made by the
    Turkish side.

    Observers note the fact that Turkey's behavior during the five-day war
    in Georgia caused hardly concealed resentment in Washington. It is not
    accidental, as experts are convinced, that at the height of the West's
    diplomatic attacks on Russia, the influential Wall Street Journal
    published an article with a very expressive title: `Will Turkey Leave
    NATO?' The author of this article is Zeyno Baran, the director of the
    Center for Eurasian Policy of the Hudson Institute, an ethnic Turk and
    the wife of the afore-mentioned Matthew Bryza. She wrote that Turkey is
    faced with the need to make a choice. Either it sides with its NATO
    allies and allows the ships to pass into the waters of the Black Sea to
    aid Georgia, or it chooses Russia, and not the NATO countries, as its
    main ally.

    `Actually, Ankara was not intending to leave the North Atlantic Treaty
    Organization. The appearance of the article that couldn't go unnoticed
    was obviously connected to the irritation that Turkey's sluggishness
    caused in Washington,' noted a source in Turkish diplomatic circles who
    wished to remain anonymous.

    Observers are having a tough time trying to conjure up an explanation
    for the fact that Turkey really did slow down and extend the
    negotiations on allowing American ships access to Georgian shores. The
    majority agree that the sluggishness was explained by Ankara's
    reluctance to lose its established connections with Russia. `It is
    clearly obvious that a normal relationship with Russia is a key
    condition for Turkey to be able to build the Platform of Security and
    Stability,' a source in a Russian expert community close to the Kremlin
    said. `At the beginning of the conflict with Georgia, Russia's Ministry
    of Foreign Affairs even included Turkey in a not-for-publication list
    of countries that theoretically might recognize the independence of
    Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That list was presented to the highest
    authorities in the Kremlin, and although the hopes of Russian diplomats
    were not realized, Turkey's reluctance to spoil its relationship with
    Russia is absolutely obvious and undeniable.'

    It is definitely not accidental that Turkey's initiative caused
    increased activity by the Minsk OSCE group; it did not want to hand its
    powers and privileges over to Ankara. And this is despite the fact that
    the relations between the two co-chairs of the Minsk group'the United
    States and Russia'became very strained after the war in South Ossetia.
    After Washington stated that it will work together with Russia only
    after the latter withdraws its armed forces from South Ossetia and
    Abkhazia, the only remaining co-chair still capable of functioning was
    the third one'France. Today, however, this co-chair is doing all the
    work for three: in the last few months, French representatives have
    visited Armenia and Azerbaijan on numerous occasions, working to reach
    the main goal of the Minsk group'finding a peaceful resolution to the
    Karabakh problem.

    Enter the small guy

    With the `battle' for Karabakh still going on in the background,
    Azerbaijan is looking for alternative ways to export its energy
    resources, bypassing the unstable Georgia. Presently Azerbaijan is
    negotiating with Moscow, trying to increase the capacity of the
    Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. The pipeline can be used to deliver Caspian
    oil to the Black Sea and further on to Western Europe through Russian
    territory. It is a known fact that the pipeline has still not reached
    its projected estimated capacity, which is supposed to add up to five
    million tons per year.

    During the five-day war in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan pumped its oil
    through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline; it is also called the Northern
    Route. The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, which passes through Georgia into
    Turkey, was stopped even before the start of the conflict in Georgia
    due to a fire on Turkish territory; the responsibility for this fire
    was claimed by Kurdish separatists. Today, Baku-Ceyhan is again
    functioning at full capacity, while the residual volumes of the oil
    belonging to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) are
    being pumped north. Why does Baku need the northern route? The
    President of SOCAR, Rovnag Abdullayev, explained in an interview to the
    Azerbaijani press that the country is trying to achieve a
    diversification of raw material supplies to the world's markets; this
    is why all potential delivery lines should be maintained in working
    order. This is exactly why Azerbaijan is interested in Russia's taking
    the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline up to its projected capacity.

    This story reflects the real state of affairs in the Southern Caucasus.
    Azerbaijan (and Armenia) cannot depend on just one country'whether it
    is the United States, Russia or somebody else. This is why sooner or
    later, the interests of the big players will come to a certain balance.
    There is another trend that surfaced as a result of the five-day war.
    The fact that `small' players, which stayed out of this business until
    now, are becoming involved in the peacemaking initiatives indicates
    that they no longer wish to play somebody else's game. This was clearly
    stated by Turkey. Following its example, Iran also wants to join the
    process of regulating the Karabakh problem; Iran is one of the few
    countries that have always supported Armenia in this conflict. This
    intention was first announced by Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs
    Manouchehr Mottaki during his visit to Georgia in September. Iran's
    ambassador in Azerbaijan, Nasir Hamidi Zare, stated in an interview to
    the ANS Television Company that Teheran is starting negotiations with
    Baku and Yerevan to become a facilitator in the regulation of their
    conflict: `Iran aspires to resolve the Karabakh problem within the
    scope of international legal norms¦ .' The activity of this country,
    which has extremely large reserves of oil and gas, points not only at
    political, but also at energy-connected hidden motives. Originally the
    Nabucco Project, developed by Europeans, was designed to transit
    Iranian gas to the markets of the Old World.

    Sanobar Shermatova is a columnist for the Gazeta newspaper.
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