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Analysis: The Danger Of 'Losing Turkey'

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  • Analysis: The Danger Of 'Losing Turkey'

    ANALYSIS: THE DANGER OF 'LOSING TURKEY'
    By Claude Salhani

    Middle East Times
    Dec 1 2008
    Egypt

    WASHINGTON, Dec. 1 (UPI) -- Is it possible to lose something you
    haven't yet found?

    That is a question being asked by two scholars from the Brookings
    Institution in Washington, and what would happen in the event that
    Turkey got tired of waiting to be accepted as a full partner by
    the West.

    Philip H. Gordon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution
    and former director for European affairs on the National Security
    Council, and Omer Taspinar, a professor of national security studies
    at the U.S. National War College, as well as a director of the Turkey
    Project and a non-resident fellow at Brookings, just released their
    thoughts on the matter in a publication put out by Brookings, titled
    "Winning Turkey."

    They start off by asking, "Who lost Turkey?" and play off the following
    scenario: The year is 2012, and a televised presidential debate is
    under way in the United States. Following a coup by Turkey's military,
    the elected Islamist-leaning government is overthrown after being
    accused of "promoting a hidden Islamic fundamentalist agenda and
    selling out Turkey's national interests."

    As might be expected, Europe and the United States impose strict
    economic sanctions on Turkey. The new government in Ankara responds
    by declaring it would pursue a more independent foreign policy.

    Turkey's military government withdraws Ankara's more than 10-year-old
    application to join the European Union, suspends its membership in
    NATO, bars the United States from the use of military bases on its
    territory and announces that henceforth Turkey would pursue a more
    independent foreign policy in which it would seek to develop closer
    diplomatic, economic and energy relations with Russia, China and
    Iran. Furthermore, Turkey orders its military forces into northern
    Iraq to act against the Kurds.

    The questions in this hypothetical presidential debate being asked
    by the moderator are the following: How could the United States let
    this happen to a relationship with such an important American ally? As
    president, the candidates in the debate are asked what they would have
    done to prevent this foreign policy disaster. Who lost Turkey? And
    how can we win it back?

    Indeed, there is a growing feeling among many Turks of being fed up
    with the way they are currently treated by the West, and particularly
    by the Europeans. In addition to the current problems facing
    Turkey in foreign policy, the Islamist-leaning government of Prime
    Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is accused of pursuing a hidden Islamist
    agenda. However, as the authors point out, Turkish secularists believe
    Western observers tend to underestimate what is really transpiring
    in Turkey and to see the country more as a "moderate Islamic country."

    A monumental mistake being made by the West is falsely believing that
    Turkey has no other option but to align itself with the West. Turkey's
    love affair with Europe and the United States is a result of a policy
    set out by Mustafa Kemal, the founder of modern-day Turkey. Kemal,
    also known as Ataturk, saw the future of his country after the demise
    of the Ottoman Empire, when Turkey retrenched itself within its borders
    after having lost all its territories in World War I with Europe.

    While the vast majority of Turkish politicians since Ataturk have
    followed his ideas and remained faithful to the Kemalist principle,
    there are no ironclad guarantees that this will remain the same in
    the years to come. It is not impossible to expect future Turkish
    governments -- either through elections or, as the two Brookings
    scholars point out, through a military coup, something modern-day
    Turkey has already experienced several times -- to alter the course
    of Kemalism. Yes, this is unthinkable today, but who could have
    predicted the sudden turn of events in Iran, for example, when the
    shah, a staunch U.S. ally, was overthrown by an Islamic revolution?

    Turkey represents an important ally in the Levant for a number of
    reasons. The country counts more than 70 million Muslims, and despite
    its paradoxes it remains the most advanced democracy in the Islamic
    world. It straddles far more than just Europe and Asia; but with
    borders with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Greece, Iran,
    Iraq and Syria, it also straddles the Caucasus and Europe, as well
    as the Middle East and Europe, the Arab world and Iran.

    It should not be ruled out that Turkey one day might decide enough
    is enough and turn away from Europe and Kemalist ideas, and seek
    alliances with the Central Asian republics, with some of whom it even
    shares a similar language, not to mention religion.

    In conclusion, the authors point out that at this time Turkey is not
    "lost." Of course, it could become so, unless current trends are
    quickly reversed and Turkey is given a reason to believe its future
    is well assured as part of the Western world.

    With almost certain guarantees that the situation in Afghanistan
    will get much worse before it gets any better, and with tensions
    between India and Pakistan rising to dangerous new levels, "losing"
    Turkey would be more than a monumental mistake. It would border on
    outright stupidity.
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