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Russian policy experts believe Ukraine's revolutionary fervor iscont

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  • Russian policy experts believe Ukraine's revolutionary fervor iscont

    RUSSIAN POLICY EXPERTS BELIEVE UKRAINE'S REVOLUTIONARY FERVOR IS CONTAGIOUS
    Igor Torbakov 12/20/04

    EurasiaNet Organization
    Dec 20 2004

    Policy analysts in Russia are divided in their understanding of the
    nature of the Orange Revolution in neighboring Ukraine. Yet many
    in Moscow maintain that the revolutionary mood now gripping Kyiv is
    capable of spreading to other CIS states.

    The Western-oriented candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, is widely expected
    to prevail in the Ukrainian presidential run-off scheduled for
    December 26 - a re-run of the balloting conducted in late November.
    Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, the Kremlin's favored candidate,
    was proclaimed the winner of that vote. However, the Ukrainian Supreme
    Court subsequently tossed out the results and ordered a new election,
    saying the late November tally was marred by widespread fraud.

    For Russian "derzhavniki," or champions of Russia's great-power
    status, a victory of Ukrainian democratic forces would signify a
    disastrous geopolitical defeat. In a number of articles and policy
    papers, Russian policy hawks, who tend to support President Vladimir
    Putin, assert that since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991,
    the presidential race in Ukraine represented "the biggest [geo-]
    political war between the United States and European Union on the
    one hand, and Russia on the other."

    Although some analysts conceded that the Ukrainian crisis possessed a
    "democratic dimension," the general view was that massive rallies
    in Kyiv in early December were the result of an international
    conspiracy. As one analyst argued in a commentary published in the
    weekly Ekspert, "the [Ukrainian] revolution, as the previous one in
    Georgia, has very substantial propagandistic, diplomatic, ideological
    and informational support from Western countries." The commentary
    maintained that the West's "great geopolitical game" aimed at tearing
    Ukraine away from Russia, establishing a cordon sanitaire that left
    Moscow isolated.

    The Orange Revolution, the statists believe, could touch off a
    dangerous chain reaction. If Moscow fails to reassert its position
    in Ukraine, argues prominent political analyst Vitaly Tretyakov,
    "within the next two years 'velvet revolutions' will take place -
    according to the Kyiv scenario - in Belarus, Moldova, Kazakhstan,
    Kyrgyzstan and, possibly, in Armenia." As a result, Tretyakov warned
    in a recent column published in the government daily Rossiiskaya
    Gazeta, the Kremlin might be deprived of "the room for maneuver in
    the post-Soviet space."

    Many in the Russian policy community share Tretyakov's strategic
    concerns. It is no wonder, then, that some Kremlin political
    gurus have started talking about a need to foment a "preventive
    counter-revolution." In a wide-ranging interview with the Nezavisimaya
    Gazeta daily, a leading spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky argued that "the
    Kyiv [events] are a very serious signal for Russia," adding that
    Russia's own political system, along with its regional interests, is
    vulnerable to the "new revolutionary technologies of the globalization
    era." Authorities in Russia and allied countries must take steps
    to protect themselves from "regime-change" attempts, Pavlovsky
    added. One antidote against a Western-sponsored velvet revolution,
    he suggested, would be the development of an ideology that contains
    "counter-revolutionary properties of our power structures and our
    society."

    In sharp contrast to the hawks, liberal commentators in Moscow maintain
    Russia's geopolitical problems are largely self-inflicted, adding
    that much of the blame is connected to the Putin administration's
    guiding political philosophy of "managed democracy." Lilia Shevtsova
    of the Carnegie Moscow Center characterized events in Ukraine as a
    "revolution of a new type." While the political conflicts in East
    Central Europe at the end of the 1980s were the revolutions against
    totalitarianism, the events in Ukraine are a "revolution against
    phony democracy," Shevtsova wrote in the liberal weekly Novaya Gazeta.

    Like the policy hawks, Russian liberals tend to believe that the ideas
    underpinning Ukraine's Orange Revolution can prove contagious. In the
    words of Vasily Zharkov, editor-in-chief of the Prognosis.ru website,
    "a danger of a Kyiv-type velvet revolution is always present where
    the principles of 'managed democracy' rule."

    Accordingly, concern about falling dominos is widespread in governing
    circles in many CIS states. [For additional information see the Eurasia
    Insight archive]. Authorities in Kyrgyzstan, where parliamentary
    elections are scheduled for February 2005, have warned about the
    "orange danger." Speaking December 10 in Bishkek at a conference
    called "Democracy in the Changing World," Kyrgyz President Askar
    Akayev alleged that opposition forces in Kyrgyzstan were using "dirty
    political technologies," adding his opponents were being financed by
    "foreign capital." According to the Kyrgyz president, the opposition
    is determined to come to power "at any cost."

    Certain forces "are trying to impose democracy from abroad," Akayev
    continued. "Such practice is ruinous - it doesn't correspond to our
    national interests and might lead to unpredictable consequences."

    In Uzbekistan, a Central Asian nation with brittle regime,
    President Islam Karimov has harshly criticized Putin for mismanaging
    Russian-Ukrainian affairs, saying the Russian leader indulged in a
    "shortsighted policy" of open support for Yanukovich's candidacy
    during the Ukrainian campaign. The Kremlin's miscalculation was "one
    of the reasons that led to the events in Ukraine," Karimov maintained.

    Armenia, where the results of the 2003 presidential and parliamentary
    elections remain a source of contention and divisiveness, is
    another country that could be significantly impacted by Ukrainian
    developments. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
    Armenia's opposition, which alleges that the 2003 votes were rigged,
    has refused to recognize the legitimacy of President Robert Kocharian's
    mandate. Russia's policy towards Armenia is flawed because it is based
    on "unprecedented support" for Kocharian, wrote David Petrosyan,
    a political observer for Noyan Tapan news agency, in a commentary
    published by the Moskovskiye Novosti weekly. This staunch backing
    for Kocharian has caused Russia to lose a considerable amount of
    influence and prestige in the eyes of Armenian public, Petrosyan
    maintained. He predicted that, given recent developments in Ukraine,
    a large-scale political shift in Armenia is "quite likely."

    Editor's Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher
    who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History
    from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy
    of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian
    History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the
    Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,
    Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York;
    and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in
    Istanbul, Turkey.
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