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Warning: these spots could be explosive in 2009

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  • Warning: these spots could be explosive in 2009

    Warning: these spots could be explosive in 2009

    The Times
    January 2, 2009


    Can experts tell where conflicts will begin in the coming year? Where
    will the next South Ossetia be?

    Michael Binyon

    What in the world will go wrong this year? Whatever precautions
    politicians take to cover themselves, they are always caught out by the
    unexpected. What throws governments off course and plans into turmoil
    are, in Macmillan's phrase, `events, dear boy, events'.

    A year ago it was already clear that Pakistan would remain one of the
    world's most dangerous and unstable nations in 2008 - though no one
    foresaw the fall of Pervez Musharraf or the Mumbai attacks. Bombings
    and killing were never likely to cease in Iraq. And the relentless
    increase in Taleban attacks, roadside bombs and Nato casualties in
    Afghanistan was sadly predictable. But who foresaw Russian tanks in
    Georgia, the banking collapse, or the worst riots in Greece for 30
    years?

    It is always the unexpected that has politicians, journalists and the
    UN Security Council scrambling. It will be the same in 2009. We will
    suddenly know the names of small towns caught up in a new conflict
    zone, understand the ethnic balance of warring communities or
    recapitulate forgotten history to show why the eruption of violence was
    always on the cards.

    Planning can already begin for some of Donald Rumsfeld's `known
    unknowns': for another terrorist atrocity in Pakistan or a provocative
    redoubling of nuclear enrichment in the laboratories of Iran to test
    the mettle of the new US president. Diplomats can gird themselves for a
    promised new round of Middle East diplomacy to salvage whatever is
    possible from the conflict in Gaza.

    Nothing can be done to prepare governments for the unknown unknowns,
    however, or get foreign ministers to pay attention to the pleading of a
    minor diplomat in a faraway country who sees a tsunami rolling his way.
    But perhaps foreign ministries ought, for a change, to use their
    hindsight in advance.

    The Georgian attack on South Ossetia, during the Olympic Games in
    Beijing, caught many by surprise. But not the Russians. And not those
    diplomats who had given warnings about Europe's `frozen conflicts',
    unresolved disputes that arose from ethnic antagonisms within the old
    Soviet Union. There are still three others that could trigger violence.

    One is Nagorno-Karabakh. This is a patch of territory, inhabited mainly
    by ethnic Armenians, inside the borders of neighbouring Azerbaijan. In
    1988 the local assembly passed a resolution calling for unification
    with Armenia. Violence against local Azeris triggered a massacre of
    Armenians in the Azerbaijani city of Sumgait. The conflict escalated
    and in 1991 the Azeris occupied most of the region. The Armenians
    counterattacked and by 1994 had seized back the enclave and a swath of
    adjacent territory. Some 600,000 Azeri refugees fled. A
    Russian-brokered ceasefire was imposed in 1994, by which time about
    25,000 people had died.

    Little has changed since. Periodic talks on a settlement have failed.
    Armenia still controls the territory it occupied and the refugees are
    still homeless. But with Azerbaijan's new oil wealth, increasing
    assertiveness and hostility to Russia, an attack to retake the
    territory is always possible - provoking a counterattack by Armenia,
    intervention by Russia and the same international escalation seen in
    Georgia in the summer.

    Then there is Transdniestria, the sliver of territory along the
    boundary of Moldova and Ukraine, largely Russian-populated and a hotbed
    of smuggling, corruption and organised crime. After the collapse of the
    Soviet Union, the region proclaimed secession from Moldova, triggering
    fighting along the Dniester river. A ceasefire was signed in 1992 and a
    stand-off is still in place after the Russian Army prevented Moldova
    subduing the province. In any of these regions, renewed fighting could
    provoke a wider dispute between Russia and its neighbours.

    The Balkans could also have a new round of fighting. The Kosovo Serbs
    are unreconciled to the province's independence, and might provoke
    violence in order to draw in Serbia. In neighbouring Macedonia, the
    Albanian minority is chafing at what it sees as discrimination against
    it and hankers for union with Albania. And the tranquillity in Bosni
    a
    may be deceptive if any of the former combatants attempts to alter the
    status quo.

    Europe, however, is more prepared than Asia for trouble. Thailand shows
    that democracies are not immune to subversion by the mob. The airport
    blockades, defiance of the police and demonstrations have exposed a
    collapse in government authority and deep-seated hostility between the
    urban middle class and rural supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the
    exiled former Prime Minister. Another military coup looks all too
    possible.

    As the economic downturn bites, conflicts masked by fast growth could
    gather pace. Long-running rebellions have racked India's isolated north
    east; and in the central provinces Maoists, known as Naxalites, have
    been waging a campaign of terror against government targets. Most
    ominous, however, is the possible radicalisation in India of the 150
    million-strong Muslim minority, marked by the emergence of groups
    claiming responsibility for recent terrorist bombings. The run-up to
    the general election in May could see communal violence on an
    unprecedented scale, paralysing India's politics and driving away
    investment.

    China, too, has ethnic rebellions. There seems little chance that
    Tibetans will again be able to defy Beijing. But in the remote north
    west the Uigurs, non-Han Muslims, are fiercely opposed to Chinese rule
    and further terrorist attacks in Xinjiang could provoke a violent
    response from the Chinese Government.

    Clashes triggered by religious conflict could also threaten Indonesia,
    where massacres by extremist Muslims of Christians in Sulawesi have led
    to reprisals and heightened tensions. The central Government has only
    weak control in the fissiparous provinces; a worsening of the economic
    situation could fuel widespread anger that is easily exploited.

    Similar long-running clashes in the Philippines, where a Muslim
    insurgency in the south has been helped by al-Qaeda, could lead in turn
    to terrorism in an attempt to provoke government repression. Tensions
    along the religious faultline splitting the Muslim north of Nigeria and
    the south have already led to sporadic violence. That can easily
    spread. And unless the political turbulence is resolved in Thailand,
    the Muslim insurgency in the southern provinces could threaten much of
    the peninsula.

    Africa, too, will provide more horrors: Zimbabwe, Somalia, Darfur and
    Congo could all implode into renewed war, massacres and starvation,
    each having the potential to suck in neighbours. Neither on this
    continent, nor across a restless world, can stability be underpinned as
    long as markets, economies and global trade remain in turmoil: 2009
    will be a year that many statesmen would like to avoid.
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