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ANKARA: Kalaycoglu: 2009 may be make-or-break year with EU

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  • ANKARA: Kalaycoglu: 2009 may be make-or-break year with EU

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    Jan 5 2009


    MONDAY TALK
    KalaycıoÄ?lu: 2009 may be make-or-break year with EU


    Sabancı University Professor Ersin KalaycıoÄ?lu
    has said the government of Turkey should return to its reformist
    agenda with the goal of membership in the European Union because `the
    hour of reckoning is close.'

    Evaluating the most pressing issues facing Turkey this year, he
    stressed that the EU had notified the Turkish government in November
    that it was high time to focus again on the stalled reform
    efforts. Shrinking by the day, Turkey's friends in the EU expect
    Ankara to restore its supporters' confidence by taking bold steps in
    the political field, and there is much more to do for Turkey in terms
    of democratization and human rights, he explained.Professor
    KalaycıoÄ?lu shared his views with Monday Talk on the
    most critical issues the Turkish government will have to address in
    2009, from its relations with the United States to its role in the UN
    Security Council.

    What are your political and economic expectations for Turkey in the
    year 2009?

    First of all, we should expect to see financial problems resulting
    from the global economic crisis dominate the scene. In addition, we
    have the local elections approaching in March, and the results may
    give us some idea about how well or poorly the political parties are
    doing. As of Jan. 1, Turkey became a temporary member of the UN
    Security Council [UNSC] and a lot of tough issues, including wars in
    Congo and the Israeli-Hamas conflict, and others in Afghanistan and
    elsewhere, are awaiting our attention. Then we have a number of
    foreign policy issues, such as relations with the European Union,
    which have become tied to the issue of Cyprus, where talks have been
    continuing between Turkish and Greek Cypriots.

    Are the Cyprus talks essential to easing Turkey-EU relations, since
    many negotiation chapters remain suspended by the EU, which says
    Turkey should first open its air and sea ports to Greek Cypriot
    traffic?

    We don't know the details of the talks between the Turkish and Greek
    sides on the island. However, if the EU expects Turkey to do
    something, the feeling in Turkey -- the government included -- is that
    Turkey has already done its share. Turkish Cypriots, supported by
    Turkey, approved the UN-mediated Annan plan to reunify the island in
    2004 just prior to the EU accession of Greek Cyprus as the official
    government of the Republic of Cyprus. But the Greek Cypriots rejected
    the Annan plan and, by extension, the reuniting of the island. Now,
    having been accepted into the EU as a full member, the ball is in the
    Greek Cypriots' court.

    What do you think they should do?

    The Turkish Cypriots and the Turkish government alike expect the Greek
    side to agree on a federal structure with two states and thereby unify
    the island. In addition, the guarantee agreements of 1959-1960 should
    continue. The rest would be about legal-technical details, which will
    take some time to solve. The main issue is about the definition of the
    structure of the state of Cyprus.

    Can't Turkey open its ports to the Greek Cypriot traffic to show the
    EU that it is willing to overcome deadlocks because it wants
    membership?

    It is possible. Turkey closed its ports after 1984, so Turkish ports
    had been open to Greek Cypriot traffic before. But Turkey has had a
    new political stance since 2004. In that case, why should Turkey take
    another goodwill step without guaranteeing the Turkish Cypriots'
    well-being is not so clear to Turks. There is a problem of trust
    between the sides and, without establishing trust, Turkey will not
    change its stance because we have had too many bad experiences.

    Would you elaborate on this idea?

    When we academics talk with our EU counterparts, we ask them if Turkey
    would be accepted in the EU with full membership if it renounced its
    right to Cyprus and the Aegean Sea, and they still cannot say `yes.'
    Such a relationship, in which, when one side says it is ready to do
    anything to be accepted into the EU, but the other side is still not
    sure, is hard to sustain. But if the EU is also ready to give credible
    guarantees to Turkey about full membership, then Turkey can consider
    changing its stance. Secondly, the problem was supposed to be solved
    by the UN. It is not Turkey that asked the EU to make the Cyprus
    problem a problem of the EU. That was done solely by the EU when it
    admitted Cyprus into the union in 2004 as a representative of the
    entire island, even though the island had been divided into a Greek
    Cypriot south and a Turkish Cypriot north. Currently the Turkish
    Cypriots cannot take full advantage of the EU membership of the island
    because their status is not clear. Since the EU has been willing to
    make Cyprus a problem of its own, it is welcome to solve it as well
    and improve the status of the Turkish Cypriots to the level of the
    Greek Cypriots.

    `Turkey would not like to trigger civil war in Iraq' As there are
    growing relations between Turkey and the Kurdish administration in
    northern Iraq, is there a possibility that Turkey could recognize the
    regional government?

    Turkey started to develop more relations with the northern Iraqi
    administration in 2008, but it would not be an easy step to recognize
    that administration officially, because such a move would jeopardize
    Iraq's territorial integrity, which, in turn, may have negative
    repercussions for the whole region.

    Could you elaborate on this?

    Iran has been trying to increase its influence in the region,
    especially in parts of Baghdad and in southern Iraq. If Iraq's
    territorial integrity is damaged, neighboring states could be drawn
    into the Iraqi mess. Turkey would not want to trigger such a
    development. Since the central administration of Iraq is not very
    strong, they told Turkey to go and talk with the regional
    administration to get support for the fight against terrorism. What
    needs to be done is to strengthen the central administration in Iraq
    while respecting and supporting the rights of the ethnic groups in the
    country. This is what the United States tries to do, but it is very
    difficult while the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north
    are all armed. So a civil war is a possibility that must be
    avoided. In addition, there has been a historic change in
    Iraq. Throughout most of its history, Iraq has been governed by the
    Sunnis even though the Shiites have been in the majority.

    Now the Shiites, due to their sheer numbers, have the opportunity to
    govern in a democratic Iraq. It's not an easy change for the country,
    since Shiites have been sidelined in the history of the Middle East
    and seen as a threat to most governments in the region.

    `Turkey-Armenia rapprochement fragile'
    Do you think Turkey will open its border with Armenia this year?

    Turkey has traditionally made the opening of the border with Armenia
    conditional on the development of good relations between Azerbaijan
    and Armenia. But there is no such development in sight.

    But Turkey has given some signs that it may remove its conditions¦

    Then there would be a major Turkish foreign policy change, meaning
    that Turkey would change the course of its relations with Azerbaijan,
    as well. Turkey and Azerbaijan share the same culture. In addition,
    Turkey has ties with Azerbaijan over the energy corridor in the
    region. If Turkey can establish better relations with Armenia without
    shattering its relations with Azerbaijan, then it could be achieved.

    What can Turkey do to keep both Armenia and Azerbaijan happy?

    If President Abdullah Gül had been able to convince Azeri
    President Ilham Aliyev to go along with him when he went to Yerevan
    last year, a balancing act could have been possible. Remember the
    protests by the Azerbaijani government when President Gül went
    to Yerevan! Turkey needs to think of the negative repercussions of
    abandoning Azerbaijan while approaching Armenia. On the other hand,
    how Yerevan will be able to go forward with its relations with Ankara
    is also questionable. There are influential factors outside of
    Armenia. One of them is the Armenian diaspora. The other one is
    Russia. Armenia is dependent on Russia, particularly when it comes to
    security relations. And then there are the United States and, to some
    extent, the European Union, both of which have influential relations
    with Armenia. Additionally, President Gül implied recently that
    the rapprochement could be hurt by the signature campaign from Turkish
    intellectuals [apologizing for the killings and forced deportations of
    Anatolian Armenians in the World War-I era]. That means that the
    rapprochement is quite fragile.

    `Middle East too hard for Turkey to deal with' Will Turkey be able to
    follow up on its initiatives to solve the crisis in Gaza?

    We first have to understand what is going on there, where several
    forces have been clashing. First, there is a conflict between Hamas
    and Fatah. Hamas is eyeing the seat of Palestinian President Mahmoud
    Abbas. Hamas tries to thrive on the fact that Fatah recognizes Israel
    and has a pro-peace stance, which has cost them dearly in popular
    support. On the other side, Hamas props up the image of resistance to
    Israel and presses for the rights of the Palestinians. So Hamas
    provoked Israel with its attacks and Israel responded. That was the
    explanation of Abbas, who blamed the rival Hamas group for triggering
    Israel's deadly raids on Gaza by ending a six-month truce with
    Israel. Moreover, there are more tensions between moderate and radical
    rival camps in the Arab world.

    What are those tensions?

    Amid the recent Gaza bombings, Hezbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah
    called on millions of Egyptians to take to the streets to protest
    their government's response to the Israeli attack. He also called for
    uprisings throughout the Arab and Islamic world and said he supported
    a third Palestinian intifada. So the picture looks like this: Hamas is
    supported by Hezbullah, Hezbullah is supported by Syria and Syria is
    supported by Iran. Egypt officially barred aid from reaching Gaza from
    its soil because it feels threatened by Iran and Syria, which seem to
    be pressuring Egypt through their proxy Hamas. So there seems to be a
    confrontation between Egypt and Iran.

    What would you say about the US factor?

    It is the third factor in this complicated equation. We don't know
    what the new administration will do. Maybe Israel is trying to take
    advantage of the lame-duck US presidency because the new
    administration would stress diplomacy more than the use of force. And,
    of course, Hamas is also trying to use the situation for its own
    advantage.

    So what about Turkey?

    Under the circumstances, how Turkey could convince Egypt and Iran to
    agree on a solution while at the same time getting together with
    Israel and the Palestinians to have them start a cease-fire while
    keeping the US out of this equation is a puzzle to solve.

    Which camp do you think Turkey feels closer to in the region?

    Turkey in the past has tried to help the Palestinians economically in
    Gaza, even after Hamas took over the region. For example, it offered
    to build a free-trade zone in Gaza. However, it seems like Hamas is
    less interested in the economic development of Gaza and more
    interested in a war of attrition and prefers to buy bombs and arms,
    where Iran seems to come into the picture. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi
    Arabia feel threatened by Iran's rising influence. Does the Turkish
    government feel threatened by Iran, as well? We don't know. If Turkey
    feels closer to Iran, then it would have to face negative reactions
    from such traditional allies as the United States, NATO and the EU, as
    well as the above-mentioned states in the region. In the end, Turkey
    cannot afford to expend its energy and finite resources to convince
    all sides and achieve a resolution in the very slippery Middle East.

    Where do you think Turkey should expend its energy?

    First, Turkey should invest more in its relations with the EU because
    the hour of reckoning is close. Warning Turkey, the EU said it would
    review the situation once again in 2009. Turkey has fallen behind in
    some of its democratization and human rights reforms. It should revive
    the reform process so the supporters of Turkey in the EU will find
    ammunition in their hands to defend Turkey against the non-supporter
    camp. Secondly, a new administration is coming to the United
    States. Turkey needs to establish ties with the Obama
    administration. There is another `genocide' resolution in the US
    Congress waiting to come to light in April and it is full of claims,
    such as massacres that took place in the 1920s, which are neither true
    nor acceptable. I am sure the Turkish government will have its hands
    full with such matters that need to be clarified with the Obama
    administration.

    `Stronger mandate in local elections does not mean more reforms' `The
    ruling Justice and Development Party's [AK Party] performance at the
    March 29 local elections will not provide motivation for it to follow
    a more reformist course. What we have seen following the July 2007
    election is that a stronger mandate does not correspond to a more
    reformist approach, even though that's what the AK Party spokespersons
    had promised. If they increase their support, such a record will only
    reinforce their belief in what they had been doing and motivate them
    to be complacent. If they have a drop in support at the polls, then
    they may re-evaluate their policies.'

    Ersin KalaycıoÄ?lu
    A professor of political science at Sabancı University's
    faculty of arts and social sciences, he was formerly the rector of
    IÅ?ık University in Ä°stanbul from 2004 to
    2007. Professor KalaycıoÄ?lu is a student of comparative
    politics and specializes in political representation and
    participation. He has published on those two fields
    internationally. He has authored and co-edited six books in Turkish on
    comparative political participation, including a textbook on
    contemporary political science and several co-edited books on Turkish
    politics. In English he co-edited `Turkey: Political, Social and
    Economic Challenges in the 1990s' (1995), authored `Turkish Dynamics:
    A Bridge across Troubled Lands' (2005) and co-authored, with Ali
    CarkoÄ?lu of Sabancı University, `Turkish Democracy
    Today: Elections, Protest and Stability in an Islamic Society' (2007).
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