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On The Prospects Of The Relations Between The US And Iran

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  • On The Prospects Of The Relations Between The US And Iran

    ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN
    Sargis Harutyunyan

    http://www.noravank.am/en/?page=anali tics&nid=1597
    02 February 2009

    Though the biggest expectations from the work of the new US
    administration concern the financial and economical spheres, but
    there are also many questions in the sphere of foreign policy which
    require tough decisions from the 44th president of the United States.

    The continuous escalation of the tension in the line of
    Afghanistan-Iran and the developments expected in the line of
    India-Central Asia, the latest war between Israel and Palestine
    and general situation in the Middle East, Russian-Ukrainian gas
    crisis with all its consequences on the post-Soviet territory and
    Eastern Europe. This is the incomplete list of the issues that
    Washington has to face and to which it has worked out fundamental
    approaches. Moreover, after entering White house Obama will find out
    that there are some issues where time is working against the US.

    Therefore the point is at what extent the new US administration is
    ready to bring in some correctives into the foreign policy strategy,
    because one thing is clear: in this changed world the US can not
    follow the strategy of the 1990th. Moreover, this was realized by
    the Bush administration, because there are many examples when Obama
    will simply implement the changes which were planed in the days of
    Bush's presidency.

    The issue of20the prospects of the relations between the US and
    Iran is one of the most important. This issue is essential for us on
    two grounds:

    It has never concerned mainly those two countries and it always has
    a regional effect.

    For the recent times American-Iranian relations has become almost
    of the same importance for the national security of Armenia as the
    relations between the US and Russia.

    Situational survey Since the Islamic revolution in 1970, for the
    first time in about 30 years, in November 2008 the president of
    Iran decided to congratulate the person who was elected on the
    post of the president of the United States. Of course this step by
    Mahmud Ahmadinejad logically corresponded to the chain of events,
    which in the end of 2007 witnessed to the thaw in American-Iranian
    relations1. Nevertheless the fact that from the first days of the
    new administration both parties decided to continue their relations
    in new informational environment is equally important2.

    >From this point of view the last Israeli-Palestinian war is worthy
    of note.

    In spite of the traditional rigorous statements by Iranian side,
    the fact is that in those 20 days of war Tehran had not taken any
    practical step against Israel.

    It is known that in the period from January 8 to 14 from the territory
    of Lebanon at least six missiles were launched in the direction of the
    settlements in the North of Israel. This gave a reason to be lieve
    that Iran by means of Lebanese "Hezbollah" organization intended to
    force Israel two-front war. But the fact is that the war was over and
    "Hezbollah" stood off military actions. All foregoing becomes more
    obvious if we take into consideration the fact that during that war
    on January 2-3 the secretary of the Supreme national security council
    of Iran Said Djalali visited Damask and Beirut and met not only with
    the leaders of those countries but also with the leaders of "Hamas",
    "Hezbollah" and "Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine". It
    is unlikely that organizations which receive financial, political
    and military support from Iran would reject the decision of Iranian
    political authorities to strike along the northern borders of Israel3.

    There can be one conclusion. If the decision of Iran not to make
    concessions to Israel is particularly assured then the foregoing
    position of the Iranian party could interest only Washington. If in
    2006, when "Hezbollah"4 was fighting against Israel, Tehran wanted to
    show Washington its capabilities in the Middle East then now when the
    agreements with the US are in process, Iranian party could not have
    such a purpose. It is more probable that today restraining "Hezbollah"
    Iran wants to show the US the benefits of the collaboration.

    Conclusions The developments in at least two directions make the
    US20reach an agreement with Iran. Firstly, it is the extension of
    Russian influence on the post-Soviet territory and Eastern Europe and
    secondly, the developments which are expected in the line of India -
    Central Asia.

    In the case with Russia Iran may facilitate the US in the following
    three points:

    The general stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, which
    allows the US to concentrate more resources in the line of Moscow,
    The chance to enter South Caucasus, the Caspian region and Central
    Asian and this will be of more importance for the US especially after
    Russian-Georgian war, And finally the supply of Iranian natural gas
    to Europe, which will reduce the dependence of the European countries
    and especially Germany from Russian energy carriers, i.e. it will
    reduce the influence of Moscow in the European affairs.

    As for the line of India - Central Asian then in this direction the
    significance of Tehran role may occur only by now. It is already
    known that in the initial period of the Obama administration the US
    is going not only to stay in Afghanistan but also to enlarge their
    military presence on 30 thousand soldiers. Taking into account the
    growing instability in Pakistan and its strained relations with India,
    it should not be excluded that in the near future the US will have
    to get permission from Tehran to enter Afghanistan and Central Asia,
    because other ways go through the territo ries of Russia and China.

    It is not a secret that the following operation logic of Washington
    in the line of Iran gathers headway: Tehran should be treated the way
    Nixon did with China. May be the US will make concessions in the issue
    of regional security and lift economic sanctions. Nevertheless the main
    issue remains open: What will they do with Iranian nuclear weapons?

    1Among such events the report of the National Intelligence Council
    of the USA should be mentioned. It said that most likely Iran stopped
    its nuclear program in the autumn of 2008. The other important feature
    is that in August 2008 American-Iranian agreements were reached about
    American military presence in Iraq, and this could not happen without
    the consent of the Iranian party.

    2E.g. Barak Obama in his interviews twice (on December 7, 2008 and on
    January 11, 2009) stated that this issue should be tackled through
    diplomatic channels and his administration intended to involve Iran
    in settling regional issues.

    3This particularly refers to "Hezbollah", which with the help of
    Iranian military experts could make Israel retreat and from this point
    of view may be it has unprecedented experience in the struggle with
    Israeli military machine.

    4The possibility that Djalali's visits to Damask and Beirut pursued
    that aim should not be excluded either.
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