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ANKARA: 'Turkey Key Player In Realizing Of Nabucco'

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  • ANKARA: 'Turkey Key Player In Realizing Of Nabucco'

    'TURKEY KEY PLAYER IN REALIZING OF NABUCCO'

    Today's Zaman
    http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.d o?load=detay&link=165728&bolum=8
    Feb 2 2009
    Turkey

    Interviews

    Sinan Ogan, director of the Turkish Center for International Relations
    and Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM), has said Turkey has a greater role
    to play in the creation of the Nabucco pipeline project, which is
    to bring gas from the Caspian region to gas-hungry EU countries via
    Turkey and Georgia, in view of the fact that the problem of securing
    gas sources for the pipeline has not been solved yet.

    "The Nabucco pipeline can initially work with 8 billion cubic meters
    of natural gas a year but, looking ahead, it will need around 30
    billion cubic meters of natural gas.

    Judging by current conditions, this is not that easy, and thus
    natural gas supplies from Iran and Iraq are indispensable," Ogan said,
    adding that Turkey's strength in this project is its dialogue with
    the various Turkic republics, Iran, Iraq and Egypt.

    The Nabucco pipeline, about 3,300 kilometers in length, will start
    at the eastern border of Turkey, running through Bulgaria, Romania
    and Hungary to end in Baumgarten, close to Vienna. Construction
    is supposed to start in 2011 and it is hoped to be operational in
    2014. The estimated construction cost is around 7.9 billion euros.

    Ogan said it is not realistic to expect that the foundations for this
    project will be set by the first half of 2009. Even just the signing
    of agreements for Nabucco this year will be an "enormous success"
    considering that the Nabucco meeting in Hungary last week did not
    draw as many heads of state as expected.

    He recently shared his thoughts on this issue with Monday Talk.

    In the wake of the tensions over natural gas that have threatened
    relations between Russia and the Ukraine, as well as many European
    countries and Turkey, there was a summit held on Jan. 27 in Hungary. Is
    the only real factor driving the Nabucco project the threat to European
    countries arising from their inability to come to an agreement with
    Russia on the question of natural gas?

    Sinan Ogan, expert on Eurasia and the Middle East

    He is the director and founder of the Turkish Center for International
    Relations and Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM) and expert on Eurasia and
    the Middle East. He worked as a lecturer at Marmara University and as
    a dean and economics lecturer at the University of Azerbaijan. He was
    the coordinator for the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency
    (TÄ°KA) in Azerbaijan. He has served as a researcher on energy and
    foreign politics regarding Eurasia and the Middle East for several
    institutions, including the Eurasian Strategic Research Center
    (ASAM), where he was the head of the Caucasian, Russian and Ukrainian
    department from 2001 to 2006.

    Among his books are "Turuncu Devrimler" (Orange Revolutions, 2006),
    "Rusya'da Politika ve OligarÅ~_i" (Politics and Oligarchy in Russia,
    2003), and "Azerbaycan" (Azerbaijan, 1992).

    No, this is not the only influential factor, though we could say that
    this is currently at the forefront of other factors. In terms of the
    mid and long term, the need for natural gas in the European Union will
    increase dramatically. And as the EU's own consumption levels rise,
    its petrol and natural gas reserves are quickly being used up. If
    the production and consumption trends continue along current lines,
    all of the resources will be used up in less than 15 years from now,
    and the EU will be much more dependent on Russia, the Middle East,
    Algeria and Norway. In 2007 the EU imported 61.5 percent of the
    natural gas it consumed and put into storage for itself.

    What is the anticipated share of Russian natural gas in future
    EU imports?

    By the year 2030, the EU will be importing up to 80 percent of the
    natural gas it uses from non-EU nations, and the share held by Russia
    in this amount -- which is currently 25 percent -- will rise to 30
    percent. So Russia is actually quite far from being able to fulfill
    on its own all of the EU's natural gas needs; even if it wanted to,
    it couldn't. Russia's own consumption levels are rising and, in the
    meantime, it is also looking to sell to China and Japan. These are
    some of the other factors currently at work. In any case, the clashes
    experienced between Russia and Ukraine over the past few years,
    as well as the war that took place between Russia and Georgia and,
    of course, the fact that Russia is generally using its natural gas
    supplies as an effective vehicle for foreign policy, all of this is
    working to push the EU to find alternative sources for energy.

    The Nabucco project has been on the agenda since 2002, but as of
    yet there hasn't been any success in implementing it. What are the
    factors keeping this project from starting up?

    The first work in regard to the Nabucco project goes back to
    February 2002, when Turkey's BOTAÅ~^ [state-owned Turkish Pipeline
    Corporation] had talks with Bulgargaz [Bulgaria], Transgaz [Romania]
    and OMV Erdgas [Austria], which in turn led to the signing of the
    Oct. 11, 2002 cooperation agreement. In February 2008, the German RWE
    company joined up as the sixth equal partner in this endeavor. There
    are many reasons that all this has not yet led to results. One of
    these reasons is the lack of a clear and shared energy policy in the
    EU. While the EU is saying that the Nabucco project should go ahead,
    there are also many EU nations that have gotten in line to make all
    sorts of contracts and agreements with Russia, which does not want
    to see Nabucco happen. In fact, some EU nations even want to become
    partners in the Nabucco project's greatest competitor, the South
    Stream project, which originates from the Russian Black Sea. So the
    EU stance is in itself problematic.

    Another problematic aspect of the Nabucco project is the securing of
    natural gas, is it not?

    There are long-term agreements that exist between Russia and
    Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan --both of which could be important
    resources for this project. The fact that the EU does not count
    Uzbekistan, despite its rich natural gas resources, as a nation from
    which it can procure natural gas, the status of the Caspian Sea and
    attractive offers made by Russia to Azerbaijan all work to bring up
    the important question of where we will get the natural gas that is
    to run through this pipeline.

    'Turkey's strength in this project is its dialogue with the various
    Turkic republics, Iran, Iraq and Egypt, as well as its geographic
    position. Turkey may well inspire these nations to participate in
    the Nabucco project'

    How crucial is the involvement of Iranian and Iraqi natural gas in
    the project?

    In order for the Nabucco project to be realized, first and foremost
    there need to be investments made in the natural gas fields of
    Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan by Turkey, EU
    nations and the US. But these countries have also sold their ready
    gas supplies through contracts with Russia, China and Iran. Following
    Russia, the country with the next largest supply of natural gas is
    Iran. For now, though, Iran is being kept from supplying its natural
    gas to pipelines running to the west; however, with new US President
    Barack Obama's recent moves on the Iran front, and especially if a
    reformist wins in the upcoming elections in Iran, we might just see
    Iran-US relations at a point we might have never guessed at. Iranian
    natural gas must, in any case, be a part of the Nabucco project. The
    same goes for Iraqi natural gas. If stability finally comes to Iraq,
    Iraqi natural gas should be fed into the Nabucco pipeline. The Nabucco
    pipeline can work initially with 8 billion cubic meters of natural
    gas a year but, looking ahead, it will need around 30 billion cubic
    meters of natural gas each year. Judging by current conditions, this
    is not that easy, and thus natural gas supplies from Iran and Iraq
    are indispensable.

    Turkey has made attempts to include Russia in the Nabucco project,
    but do you think that's really acceptable to the EU nations, which
    want to reduce their reliance on Russia?

    There is little doubt that Nabucco won't have a great chance at success
    without the participation of Russia and Iran. As it is, the Russian
    ambassador to Ankara, Vladimir Ivanovsky, expressed this same thought
    clearly at a panel entitled "Multi-dimensioned Relations in the Energy
    Arena Between Russia and Turkey." The panel took place last Thursday
    and was sponsored by TURKSAM. Nevertheless, Nabucco was imagined
    as an alternative to Russia's pipelines. I would like to reiterate
    a proposal that has been made in the past by TURKSAM. Russia should
    bring into action the second Blue Stream pipeline project that it had
    worked on before and combine this pipeline with the Nabucco line to
    send natural gas to Europe in a larger capacity pipeline. With this,
    not only would it end the need for the South Stream line that Russia
    was planning to build, but it would be bringing about cooperation
    rather than competition. And since Russia's simply being a part of
    Nabucco wouldn't mean that it would have final authority over the
    project, this would still be good for Europe.

    Ambassador Ivanovsky reportedly said at the panel that Russia would not
    be a part of the Nabucco project. Were you expecting this announcement?

    The stance taken by Russia on Nabucco thus far has been one of
    "belittling" the project by implying that no matter how much pipeline
    was laid, that it would be of no use if there was no natural gas to
    fill it with. In fact, there have been several top-level statements
    made along these lines. And despite the fact that the global financial
    crisis has deeply affected Russia, Russia has still announced that
    it is not going to give up on its South Stream project. Actually,
    we had recently believed that there was a slight chance that Russia
    could become a partner in Nabucco. But since the person who will
    have the last word on this subject is Prime Minister Vladimir Putin,
    I still think it is possible that Russia will alter its stance in
    the coming days and Russia will once again bring the proposal for
    the second Blue Stream to the agenda.

    In the meantime, Georgia appears to believe that the Nabucco project
    will strengthen its own ties to European countries, and thus wants
    to see this project realized. Does this bother Russia?

    We must not ignore the fact that Nabucco may well pass both through
    Georgia and Armenia. In fact, if Turkey's new moves on the Armenia
    front are not derailed by the Obama administration's recognition in
    April of the events of 1915 as "genocide," there is actually quite
    a high chance that this pipeline could run through Armenia. At this
    stage, due to Russia's general display of opposition to the project,
    it is not really important whether this pipeline runs through Georgia
    or Armenia.

    You have argued that the subject of the deepening partnership between
    OMV and Gazprom is something that needs to be examined. Why?

    Austria, which has been appointed as a project coordinator for
    Nabucco, and the Austrian company OMV have a passive stance on this
    subject. There have been some serious attempts at partnership between
    OMV and Gazprom. So one of the most unfortunate aspects of this project
    was seeing Austria appointed coordinator for it rather than Turkey,
    because neither Austria nor OMV are going to contribute to making it
    a reality. In fact, the very partnership between OMV and Gazprom is
    a signal of just how little initiative OMV is going to take in the
    Nabucco project. Only a few weeks ago, OMV agreed with Gazprom in
    terms of Gazprom buying a 50 percent share in the Central European
    Gas Hub, and in terms of new distribution and stock facilities.

    To what do you tie the fact that European nations only want to see
    Turkey take its place as a transit country within the Nabucco project?

    One of the biggest points of disagreement between Turkey and the EU
    these days is the question of whether Turkey is to be only a transit
    country, or whether it will have a say in this project. BOTAÅ~^
    currently has an equal amount of shares -- 16.67 percent -- in Nabucco
    Gas Pipeline International. The Nabucco project is one in which BOTAÅ~^
    has played a leading role. In addition, Turkey wants to meet some of
    its own natural gas needs with this pipeline and wants to purchase
    this gas at more reasonable prices than will be charged once the gas
    reaches Austrian borders.

    The president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, has
    said there should be no ties made between Turkey's accession talks
    and energy security. Does Turkey use natural gas as a trump card?

    Actually, the Nabucco project is not economically to Turkey's
    advantage. In fact, Turkey could build another line altogether and
    procure its own gas needs from Central Asian republics. But this line
    has strategic importance. Many nations, led by Russia, of course,
    are these days using natural gas as a foreign policy tool. In his
    meetings with the EU, Erdogan has for this reason put stress on the
    Nabucco project, indicating that this was a possibility for Turkey,
    too. In fact, the Nabucco project represents one of the most important
    trump cards held by Turkey in the face of the EU.

    What can Turkey do in order to achieve what it wants regarding this
    project?

    Turkey's strength in this project is its dialogue with the various
    Turkic republics, Iran, Iraq and Egypt, as well as its geographic
    position. Turkey may well inspire these nations to participate in the
    Nabucco project. But not everything depends on Nabucco, and Turkey
    always needs to keep alternative plans alive. Turkey also needs to look
    at renewable energy sources and make investments in this area. You
    see from Obama's appointments for energy-related posts that the new
    administration in the US is placing high importance on this factor,
    too. This is true all over the world.

    --Boundary_(ID_CqG+Z2LVLt+jh2oOoTYTZA)--
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