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  • BAKU: Thaw in Baku-Tehran relations

    AzerNews, Azerbaijan
    Dec 29 2004


    Thaw in Baku-Tehran relations

    The visit by Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani to Baku was
    considered one of the most important events of last week not only for
    Azerbaijani public but also for western countries and Russia, which
    maintain close relations with Azerbaijan. After the visit by the
    Iranian President Khatami to Azerbaijan

    last summer and the appointment of an energetic and active diplomat
    Afshar Suleymani as Iran's ambassador, who is approved of by Baku,
    the relations between the two neighboring countries started to thaw.
    On the eve of President Ilham Aliyev's upcoming reciprocal visit to
    Iran, visits by Iranian officials to Baku have become frequent.

    A recent visit by Iranian deputy foreign minister was followed by
    that of the country's defense minister Shamkhani. This was the first
    visit by an Iranian defense minister to Azerbaijan.
    The Iranian Minister was received not only by his Azerbaijani
    counterpart but also by President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister
    Elmar Mammadyarov. As expected, no documents were signed upon
    conclusion of the talks.

    Iran ready to forge any ties
    In a meeting with Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev, which
    was held in a friendly atmosphere, the parties confined themselves to
    conventional statements. Shamkhani said that Iran has always
    supported and will continue to back Azerbaijan's territorial
    integrity.
    "Azerbaijan's security is our security. Our defense capability means
    your defense capability. We are ready to establish any ties with
    Azerbaijan and there are no forces opposed to this."
    Minister Abiyev in turn, said that Iran, which considers Azerbaijan a
    brotherly country, should assist in a fair settlement of the Upper
    Garabagh conflict. Abiyev pointed out that "Azerbaijan will not yield
    a patch of its land to the aggressor".
    The parties also exchanged views on developing Azeri-Iranian
    relations in the area of defense and agreed upon mutual visits by the
    two countries' delegations to continue relevant consultations.
    Independent analysts have issued conflicting views on Shamkhani's
    statement. Some say that Iran has started getting closer to
    Azerbaijan.
    Similar statements were made at Shamkhani's meetings with the
    Azerbaijani President and Foreign Minister.
    President Aliyev, in the meeting with the Iranian minister, said that
    Iran's high-ranking officials have frequently visited Azerbaijan over
    the last few months, which illustrates the expanding relations. The
    successfully developing Azerbaijani-Iranian ties also promote
    strengthening peace and stability in the region, the President added.


    History
    Azerbaijani people have always been interested in developing
    relations with Iran. This is, first of all, explained by the fact
    that there are over 30 million indigenous Azerbaijani Turks, who have
    lived in the northern part of Iran for thousands of years.
    In early 1990s, during the national liberation movement in
    Azerbaijan, which was then a part of the Soviet Union, residents of
    borderline regions, destroying the barbed wires and other borderline
    structures, opened arms to their brethren who had a similar language
    and religion, hopeful that the latter will assist them in repelling
    the Russo-Armenian onslaught.
    In those years, Iran tried to assume the role of a mediator in the
    resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Twice, on the
    initiative of t e then President of Iran - in February in March of
    1992, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia were invited to Tehran
    to hold peace talks in order to achieve a ceasefire and
    reconciliation. However, as soon as the negotiations started, the
    Russo-Armenian troops entered Khojaly and neighboring villages and
    perpetrated the well-known massacre.
    Similar developments took place in May, as the main town in Garabagh,
    Shusha, was invaded.
    Azerbaijanis realized then that superpowers and certain forces in
    Armenia let Iran know that it should abandon its mission of
    intermediary. However, the ensuing development of economic relations
    between Iran and Armenia, supplies of Iranian energy resources and
    vital goods to Armenia was complicating the ties between Iran and
    Azerbaijan.
    Due to its ties with Iran, Armenia was not considerably affected by
    the 'economic blockade on part of Azerbaijan and Turkey',
    persistently promulgated by this country in the international arena.
    Considering the good relations between Iran and Russia, Iran can be
    considered a 'key factor' for Armenia. This brings us to the
    question: why has Iran unexpectedly decided to 'break the ice' in its
    relationship with Azerbaijan?

    Visit goal
    Some experts say that Iranian officials tend to favor the neighboring
    country's aspiration to cooperate but also its global goals. More
    precisely, Iran is trying to minimize the presence of the United
    States in the region. This country's key goal is to prevent
    Azerbaijan's becoming a forepost for US troops and members of the
    anti-terror coalition in their struggle against Iran.
    Competent analysts say that the issue of the US military presence in
    Azerbaijan will be finally resolved as early as in 2005. This may
    happen under the pretext of safeguarding the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
    pipeline, the main export pipeline to take Azerbaijan's oil to world
    markets.
    A reliable military source said that the key objective of Shamkhani's
    visit to Baku was to "eliminate the latent military stand-off between
    the two countries" and learn Azerbaijan's future policy with regard
    to Iran. Many still remember the violation of Azerbaijan's maritime
    border and air space by Iranian aircraft and vessels.
    Some pundits believe that in a move to prevent the possibility of
    stationing NATO bases in Azerbaijan, Shamkhani presumably offered to
    the Azerbaijani government a full support in resolving the Upper
    Garabagh problem and weakening of its ties with Armenia. It appears
    that otherwise the Azerbaijani government would simply have no reason
    to negotiate with Iran.
    The mentioned issues are to be clarified during the upcoming visits
    by the Azerbaijani President and Defense Minister to Iran.
    During Minister Abiyev's visit, the parties may sign an agreement on
    military and technical collaboration.

    Prospects
    Some analysts say that Azerbaijan, as an independent country, is
    pursuing a balanced policy, which meets the country's national
    interests.
    Most of the experts we have approached, however, say they see no
    prospects for Iran-Azerbaijan military ties, and warn that by getting
    closer to Iran, Azerbaijan is backing away from its positions on its
    road of integration with Europe and may even enter the 'list of the
    United States' opponents. Active visits by Iran's representatives to
    Azerbaijan are believed to have started after the NATO exercises were
    cancelled in Baku this September. They warn that a change in
    Azerbaijan's strategic priorities may turn out costly for the
    country.
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