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  • How to End a Genocide Debate

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/186973


    POINT OF VIEW

    How To End A Genocide Debate

    The frozen relations between Armenia and Turkey are now showing some
    signs of melting.

    By Grenville Byford | NEWSWEEK

    Published Feb 28, 2009

    >From the magazine issue dated Mar 9, 2009


    It's almost April, so Washington is gearing up for another performance
    of the "Armenian Genocide Resolution Spectacular," a regular event
    since 1984. Here's the historical plotline: the Armenian-American
    lobby gets a few U.S. congressmen to sponsor a resolution recognizing
    the 1915 massacre of Armenians in what is now Eastern Turkey as a
    "genocide." Then other members of the House are induced to support it.
    (Members of the House may not be history buffs, but they understand
    the importance of stroking a powerful domestic lobby.) Next, the
    Turkish government says Turkey is too important to be insulted like
    this. In response, the American administration, recognizing that
    Turkey is indeed a critical NATO ally whose Incirlik Air Base is vital
    to the Iraq mission, starts twisting congressional arms to abandon the
    resolution. Offstage, the Israeli lobby, generally keen to boost
    Turkish-Israeli relations (though less so this year), works against
    the resolution. Finally, the House leadership reluctantly shelves the
    whole thing and the curtain falls.

    Before staging this year's performance, however, Congress should note
    that hitherto frozen relations between Armenia and Turkey are now
    showing signs of melting, and that this may be the first step toward
    reconciling the Turkish and Armenian peoples. In September, Turkish
    President Abdullah Gül attended a Turkey-Armenia football match in
    Yerevan at the invitation of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, who
    recently met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in
    Davos. The two foreign ministers, Turkey's Ali Babacan and Armenia's
    Eduard Nalbandian have also been meeting. Both have made optimistic
    noises.

    Progress has been possible because the Armenians have focused on the
    concrete issue of opening the Armenian-Turkish border?a vital matter
    to them since none of their other neighbors (Azerbaijan, Georgia and
    Iran) can offer a viable trade route to the West. Both sides have
    wisely avoided the genocide dispute, surely recognizing it will have
    to be dealt with eventually but that developing economic ties will
    make it easier to do so. Lingering in the background, however, is the
    Armenian diaspora's passionate insistence that there was a
    genocide?and its mirror image in the fury of the Turkish people
    denying it. Right or wrong is not the point. No Turkish government
    could contemplate opening the Armenian border with this issue front
    and center, and Congress should recognize that a genocide resolution
    would put it there.

    In all probability, Turkey and Armenia can only resolve the genocide
    dispute if they recognize that "was it a genocide?" may be the
    ultimate question, but it is not the most important one today. To
    those aiming for reconciliation, two questions outrank it: what common
    facts can Turks and Armenians be brought to accept, and is the common
    ground sufficient for both sides to start binding up the wounds? To
    this end, Erdogan's proposal to establish a joint historical
    commission should be pursued. Though Armenia has rejected the idea so
    far?largely because it is winning its argument on the world stage?the
    government has softened its stance recently. If the aim is
    reconciliation, persuading the Turks to abandon the blanket denial
    they are taught as schoolchildren is what counts.

    Progress is not as implausible as it sounds. In the early days of the
    Republic, Kemal Atatürk, who was not personally implicated, described
    the Armenian massacres as "shameful acts." No ex-Ottoman officials
    were investigated, however, as Turkey needed the newly minted heroes
    of its War of Independence to have no stain on their characters.
    Today, Erdogan will accept an investigation. In return, Armenia must
    accept a reciprocal investigation into the Ottoman Armenians, who
    fought with the sultan's Russian enemy, and their responsibility for
    massacres of Turks and Kurds. Weaving together these two violently
    opposed historical perspectives will take time and patience. As
    important as the final answer, however, is the development of empathy
    across the divide.

    Congress can help keep the path to reconciliation open if it is
    willing to deny the Armenian-American lobby the instant gratification
    of a genocide resolution. Surely doing so would be far better than
    repeating the exercises of the last 25 years over and over again until
    a resolution finally passes and all the House's leverage over Turkey
    evaporates, along with most of the good will in the Turkish-American
    alliance, and maybe even the alliance itself. For its part, the
    Armenian diaspora might even support reconciliation if only as its
    second choice. Finally, good relations between Turkey and Armenia
    would further U.S. objectives in the Caucasus. The proposed
    hydrocarbon corridor through the Caucasus from Central Asia looks much
    more secure in the context of Turkish-Armenian friendship, and it
    might give Armenia the confidence to break with the status quo in the
    longstanding Nagorno-Karabakh dispute with neighboring Azerbaijan.
    Congress and others should recognize that this year holds real promise
    for the beginning of reconciliation between the Turkish and Armenian
    peoples. If nothing comes of it, Congress can always return to a
    resolution.

    Byford writes frequently on Turkish affairs and is a regular
    contributor to Newsweek.com.
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