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Turkey-Russia Ties: A Strategic Game?

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  • Turkey-Russia Ties: A Strategic Game?

    TURKEY-RUSSIA TIES: A STRATEGIC GAME?
    By Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal

    Kashmir Watch
    http://www.kashmirwatch.com/showarticles.php ?subaction=showfull&id=1236033204&archive= &start_from=&ucat=3&var0news=value0 new s
    March 2 2009

    As his first ever trip to Russia since becoming Turkish President,
    Abdullah Gul paid a four-day visit to the Russian Federation
    from February 12 to 15 and met the Russian leaders discussing
    various diplomatic and economic matters. Russian Prime Minister
    Vladimir Putin emphasized after his talks with the visiting Turkish
    President that Turkey is "a priority in our Russian foreign policy"
    and Russia and Turkey are set to forge strategic ties as foreign
    policy priority.. On February 14, Abdullah Gul held talks with
    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and adopted a joint declaration
    after the talks to promote ties and enhance bilateral friendship
    and partnership. In the declaration, announcing their commitment to
    deepening mutual friendship and multi-dimensional cooperation, the two
    Presidents urged action to take effective measures to settle frozen
    conflicts that could destabilize the situation in the South Caucasus.

    The Government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has shown increasing
    impatience with not only Washington policies in the Middle East,
    but also the refusal of the European Union to seriously consider
    Turkey's bid to join the EU. In the situation, it's natural that
    Turkey would seek some counterweight to what had been since the Cold
    War overwhelming US influence in Turkish politics. Russia's Putin and
    Medvedev have no problem opening such a dialogue, much to Washington's
    dismay. Russia praised Turkey's diplomatic initiatives in the region.

    Following G�l's visit, Medvedev will go to Turkey to follow up
    the issues with concrete cooperation proposals. The Turkish-Russian
    cooperation is a further indication of how the once overwhelming
    US influence in Eurasia has been eroded by the events of recent US
    foreign policy in the region. Meanwhile, NATO, as before, is busy
    devising strategies to prevent strategic cooperation among the great
    powers of Eurasia and keep the region under influence of the USA-led
    western powers. Russia and Turkey are neighboring countries that are
    developing their relations on the basis of mutual confidence. The
    visits will in turn give a new character to their relations.

    Rapprochement

    As Russia's natural geopolitical rival in the 19th Century Turkey was
    considered by the Kremlin as a threat and new post-Soviet Russia also
    felt uncomfortable because of Turkey's quasi-alliance with Ukraine,
    Azerbaijan, and Georgia until recently led Moscow to view Turkey
    as a formidable rival. Emerging Turkey's close relationship with
    Central Asian states created a jerk in Moscow. The regional military
    balance has developed in favor of Turkey in Black Sea and the Southern
    Caucasus. As Russia and Ukraine argued over the division of the Black
    Sea fleet and status of Sevastopol, the Black Sea became an area for
    NATO'S Partnership for Peace exercises.

    Now today, Russia is a major energy exporter to Turkey, pumping
    natural gas across the Black Sea through the Blue Stream pipeline,
    the largest Russian-Turkish energy project. As a major geopolitical
    Great Game, Turkey and Russia are gradually moving closer to cooperate
    on economic, strategic and other issues. Moscow and Ankara agreed
    that energy was a strategic sphere in bilateral cooperation that had
    potential for growth. They also vowed to move quicker in settling
    issues related to bilateral defense cooperation. Setting aside
    uneasy political issues of the past, Turkey and Russia are exploring
    further rapprochement to improve sociopolitical and commercial ties,
    to enhance the prospects for regional energy development projects and
    to have a broad stabilizing effect, especially around their borders.

    Even as the greatest game between the "cold war" adversaries USA and
    Russia make every possible effort to outsmart one another globally
    and regionally, Russia, for quite some time now, has been wooing
    its neighbors for beneficial ties. As former empire lords, Russians
    and Turks have lived side by side for centuries both collaborating
    and confronting with one another. Following his stay in Moscow,
    Gul traveled to Kazan, the capital of Russia's predominantly Muslim
    republic of Tatarstan, mainly consists of Muslim Tatar Turks, and
    discussed joint investments.

    Taking advantage of the cool relations between Washington and longtime
    NATO ally, Turkey, Moscow invited Turkish President Abdullah Gul
    to a four day state visit to discuss a wide array of economic and
    political cooperation issues. Both Russia and Turkey, apart from
    USA, try to influence the Central Asian states and pull them toward
    themselves. Geographical proximity and an ethno-cultural background
    provide a resource for both countries to forge closer ties with
    the Central Asian republics. In the 1990's in sharp contrast to the
    tranquility of the Cold War era, talk of regional rivalries, revived
    'Great Games' in Eurasia, confrontations in the Caucasus and Central
    Asia were common. Russia does not want too many enemies around its
    borders and cultivates economic and security ties with Turkey too to
    restrict any geopolitical rival as in the 19th Century.

    Both Turkey and Russia share substantial ethnic, linguistic and
    cultural ties with Central Asia. The populations of Central Asian
    countries are mostly Sunni Muslims, like those of Turkey. Russian
    and Central Asian gas and oil need to be exported via Turkey to other
    countries. From ordinary citizens to regional experts and political
    authorities, all want dialogue and cooperation between the two
    countries in order to improve prosperity, peace and stability in the
    region. Medvedev commended Turkey's actions during the Russian-Georgian
    war last summer and Turkey's subsequent proposal for the establishment
    of a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP). The Russian
    President said the Georgia crisis had shown their ability to deal with
    such problems on their own without the involvement of outside powers,
    meaning Washington. Turkey had proposed the CSCP, bypassing Washington
    and not seeking transatlantic consensus on Russia. Since then, Turkey
    has indicated its intent to follow a more independent foreign policy.

    Cooperation in energy

    As of now, Turkish-Russian economic ties have greatly expanded over
    the past decade, with trade volume reaching $32 billion in 2008,
    making Russia Turkey's number one partner. Given this background,
    bilateral economic ties were a major item on Gul's agenda and both
    leaders expressed their satisfaction with the growing commerce between
    their countries.

    Besides the oil and gas industry, Turkish companies benefit from
    major investments in Russia and Central Asian countries, such as
    the construction of airports and pipelines and operating hotels and
    supermarkets. Russia's economy is now reeling from the sharp fall in
    oil prices, and its stock market is down 75 percent since last summer
    as the world economy collapses into recession.

    Cooperation in energy is the major area. Turkey's gas and oil imports
    from Russia account for most of the trade volume. Russian press reports
    indicate that the two sides are interested in improving cooperation in
    energy transportation lines carrying Russian gas to European markets
    through Turkey, the project known as Blue Stream-2. Previously Ankara
    had been cool to the proposal. The recent completion of the Russian
    Blue Stream gas pipeline under Black Sea increased Turkey's dependence
    on Russian natural gas from 66 percent up to 80 percent. Furthermore,
    Russia is beginning to see Turkey as a transit country for its energy
    resources rather than simply an export market, the significance of
    Blue Stream 2.

    Russia is also eager to play a major part in Turkey's attempts to
    diversify its energy sources. A Russian-led consortium won the tender
    for the construction of Turkey's first nuclear plant recently, but as
    the price offered for electricity was above world prices, the future
    of the project, awaiting parliamentary approval, remains unclear. Prior
    to Gul's Moscow trip, the Russian consortium submitted a revised offer,
    reducing the price by 30 percent. If this revision is found legal under
    the tender rules, the positive mood during Gul's trip may indicate
    the Turkish government is ready to give the go-ahead for the project.

    Russia's market also plays a major role for Turkish overseas
    investments and exports. Russia is one of the main customers for
    Turkish construction firms and a major destination for Turkish
    exports. Similarly, millions of Russian tourists bring significant
    revenues to Turkey every year. Importantly, Turkey and Russia may
    start to use the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble in foreign trade,
    which could increase Turkish exports to Russia, as well as weakening
    dependence on dollar mediation.

    Russia strives for membership of WTO. In addition to opening to Turkey,
    a vital transit route for natural gas to Western Europe, Russia is
    also working to firm an economic space with Belarus and other former
    Soviet republics to firm its alliances. Moscow delivered a major
    blow to the US military encirclement strategy in Central Asia when
    it succeeded earlier this month in convincing Kyrgyzstan, with the
    help of major financial aid, to cancel US military airbase rights at
    Manas, a major blow to US escalation plans in Afghanistan. In short,
    Moscow is demonstrating it is far from out of the new Great Game for
    influence over Eurasia.

    The Russian aim is to use its economic resources to counter the
    growing NATO encirclement, made severe by the Washington decision
    to place missile and radar bases in Poland and the Czech Republic
    aimed at Moscow. To date the Obama Administration has indicated it
    will continue the Bush 'missile defense' policy. Washington also just
    agreed to place US Patriot missiles in Poland, clearly not aimed at
    Germany, but at Russia.

    Post-Script: Warmer relations

    As the post-Cold War tensions got reduced a relatively peaceful
    atmosphere came into existence with countries with different
    politico-economic philosophies forging beneficial ties across
    the globe and the scene of Russo-Turkey relations is a case in
    point. Russo-Turkey relations are marked by non-confrontations and
    devoid of mutual mistrust. Ever since Russia became independent from
    USSR in 1992, the Russian leaders began charting a foreign policy
    with fewer conflicts across the world and that seems to have worked
    positive for Moscow. The CIS, floated by Russia following the fallof
    USSR, seen in Moscow as its traditional sphere of influence, became
    one of the foreign policy priorities under Putin, as the EU and NATO
    have grown to encompass much of Central Europe and, more recently,
    the Baltic states.

    The main message of Gul's visit to Moscow in Feb 09 was for greater
    energy coordination and the development of stronger political ties
    between the two neighbors. Presidents Medvedev and Gul, as well as
    Putin, repeated the position that, as the two major powers in the area,
    cooperation between Russia and Turkey was essential to regional peace
    and stability. That marked a dramatic change from the early 1990's
    after the collapse of the USSR when Washington encouraged Ankara to
    move into historically Ottoman regions of the former Soviet Union
    to counter Russia's influence. The declaration signed mirrors a
    previous 'Joint Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship
    and Multidimensional Partnership,' signed during a 2004 visit by
    then-President Putin.

    Turkey, a rarest nation to openly slam, face to face, the Israeli
    holocaust in Palestine when the entire Arab world was just watching the
    genocides show on screen . Following Gul's visit, some press in Turkey
    described Turkish-Russian relations as a 'strategic partnership,'
    a label traditionally used for Turkish-American relations. Russia
    elevated Gul's trip from the previously announced status of an
    'official visit' to a 'state visit,' the highest level of state
    protocol, indicating the value Moscow now attaches to Turkey. There
    seems to be shift in approaches. In previous years, Moscow was
    convinced that Turkey was trying to establish Pan-Turanism in the
    Caucasus and Central Asia and inside the Russian Federation, a huge
    concern in Moscow . Today clearly Turkish relations with Turk entities
    inside the Russian Federation are not considered suspicious as it
    was once, confirming a new mood of mutual trust.

    The short-term fluctuations in Russian-Turkish relations arise from
    issues such as commercial land transit, customs regulations and the
    use of the passageway of the Turkish Straits. Despite the problems
    of the ruble and the weak oil price in recent months for the Russian
    economy, the Russian Government is pursuing a very active foreign
    policy strategy. Its elements focus on countering the continuing
    NATO encirclement policy of Washington, with often clever diplomatic
    initiatives on its Eurasian periphery.

    The rapprochement between Turkey and Russia is to consolidate a
    long period of peace and stability and to address their current
    economic problems. This would, politically, improve the situation in
    the conflict-ridden zones in the Caucasus. It may, in the long run,
    further contribute to normalizing diplomatic relations between Turkey
    and Armenia, Georgia and Russia, and especially to a Nagorno-Karabakh
    settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moscow also wishes to
    increase its investments in the countries whose economies could be
    reinforced by expanded trade with Turkey.

    Turkey functions as a bridge between continents and cultures, not as
    a barrier to the common good. The Turkish president's visit should
    be interpreted as expanding relations in the political, economic
    and cultural fields rather than as a minor political gesture or
    a shift in Turkish foreign policy. This rapprochement does not
    threaten Turkey's ties with the USA, Europe, and other countries in
    the region or Turkey's NATO membership. With the backing of the USA,
    Ankara also expects Moscow's influence as part of EU-Russia Permanent
    Partnership over its EU bid, although Russia is still struggling to
    obtain equal status with EU. The European Union is Russia's largest
    trading partner and the largest consumer of Russian energy, while
    Russia is the largest energy supplier to the EU. As it stand now,
    the Russo-Turkish relations are bound to flourish further.
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