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Turkish drive to EU increases possibilities for change in Caucasus

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  • Turkish drive to EU increases possibilities for change in Caucasus

    EurasiaNet Organization
    Jan 7 2005

    TURKISH DRIVE TOWARDS EU INCREASES POSSIBILITIES FOR CHANGE IN THE
    CAUCASUS
    Jon Gorvett 1/06/05


    The European Union's decision to pursue membership talks with Turkey
    could have far-reaching political and economic ramifications for the
    Caucasus. The accession process can stimulate democratization in the
    region, experts say.

    The EU decided December 17 to open what promises to be a lengthy
    accession process with Turkey. Some political observers in Turkey say
    the decision immediately increased pressure on Ankara to normalize
    relations with neighboring Armenia. In recent months, Ankara and
    Yerevan have probed a rapprochement, but they have yet to make
    substantive progress in overcoming long-standing mutual hostility.
    [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    "If Turkey starts accession talks," adds Professor Gareth Winrow of
    Istanbul's Bilgi University, "it will have to normalize relations
    with all its neighbors as a condition of future EU membership. Number
    one, this means opening all its borders."

    Turkey's has kept its frontier with Armenia closed since 1993. The
    closure is connected with a Turkish embargo designed to encourage
    Armenia's withdrawal from Azerbaijani territory captured during the
    Nagorno-Karabkah conflict. [For additional information see the
    Eurasia Insight archive]. Turkish political leaders in mid-2004
    mulled re-opening the border, but the idea met fierce resistance,
    both in Turkey and in Azerbaijan, and officials backed off the idea.
    [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    Turkish observers say the government will have a difficult time
    finessing the border issue, adding that despite the EU pressure, the
    status quo may not change in the near future. "If Turkey just opened
    the border because of EU pressure, there might easily be a backlash,"
    warned Mustafa Sahin of the Ankara-based Eurasian think tank, AVSAM.
    "Azerbaijan is a very popular cause in Turkey. Also, Armenia still
    has territorial claims on Turkey that would have to be solved."

    Turkish territorial concerns stem from Armenia's refusal to recognize
    the Kars Treaty of 1921, which set the frontiers between the two
    states. Armenia claims there is no need for such recognition, as
    acceptance of the existing borders was implicit when both countries
    joined the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
    Turkey, however, continues to seek a specific guarantee of Armenian
    recognition for the existing border.

    Armenian President Robert Kocharian in late 2004 appealed to the EU
    to place the opening of the frontier among the pre-conditions for
    Turkey's EU membership. "It is unacceptable for a country that is to
    have membership talks with the EU to keep its border closed with
    another country that is already in the neighborhood policy of
    Europe," Kocharian said.

    The Armenian leader was referring to the EU Neighborhood Policy
    (EUNP), which was formulated to provide a framework for states
    bordering on the EU, such as Moldova and Ukraine. "The EUNP is
    designed to give support and dialogue to those countries that have no
    prospect of joining for now," adds Winrow. "At first, Georgia,
    Armenia and Azerbaijan were excluded from the EUNP, but after the
    Rose Revolution in Georgia, the EU changed its mind and allowed them
    in." [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    If Turkey and Armenia can eventually settle their differences, some
    observers believe pressure could increase on the Baku and Yerevan to
    reach a Karabakh settlement. Others, however, are guarded about the
    possibilities. "Accession talks won't have any direct effect on the
    Armenian issue," suggested Ferai Tinc, a political analyst for the
    Hurriyet daily. "We've seen many times before these moves to sort out
    the border."

    Nevertheless, Tinc and others say Turkey's move towards EU membership
    cannot but have a positive impact on the Caucasus. "It will send a
    message to the region that will be good for the democratization
    process," says Tinc. "Turkey's relations with the Caucasian states
    will be within a different framework - not as a big brother, but as a
    member of a community."

    Sahin, the AVSAM think-tank expert, said that even though Armenia
    views Turkey with suspicion, a significant number of Armenians want
    to see Ankara's accession effort succeed. "Armenia is a little split
    on the issue," Sahin said. "But even there, many argue that Turkey's
    accession process will give Armenia greater leverage for change."

    Meanwhile, others see Turkey's European path as helping to widen EU
    influence with another regional big power, Russia. "Turkey can play a
    very important role here," says Winrow. "As can an organization such
    as the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Turkey can show its
    strategic importance to Europe and get better and closer regional
    relations through this."



    Editor's Note: Jon Gorvett is a freelance journalist based in
    Istanbul.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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