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Former Armenian CB head forecasts 10% economic decline in 2009

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  • Former Armenian CB head forecasts 10% economic decline in 2009

    Former Armenian central bank head forecasts ten-percent economic
    decline in 2009

    YEREVAN, March 12. /ARKA/. On Thursday, Bagrat Asatryan, representative
    of opposition Armenian National Congress and former chairman of Central
    Bank of Armenia, speaking at a news conference, said Armenia will
    record ten-percent economic decline in 2009.

    `2009 will be one of the most difficult and complicated year in
    Armenia's economic record, since some signs of it are already seen.
    This year we'll face quite high inflation and economic decline
    exceeding ten-percent benchmark', he said.

    World Bank predicts zero economic growth and IMF 1.5% growth slowdown
    in Armenia in 2009. Armenian Government planned 9.2% GDP growth in the
    2009 state budget, but officials expect a slight economic growth.

    Asatryan grounded his forecast on 20-percent economic decline of the
    fourth quarter of 2008. He also pointed out considerable, 40-percent
    decline in construction sector in the 4th Q 2008.

    He thinks the same will go on also in 2009. The former head of the
    Central Bank singled out services as another sector to be stricken
    badly in 2009.

    This sector along with construction makes 50% of the country's GDP.
    Asatryan also predicts reduction in import. He views it as positive
    factor for domestic manufactures, but says this will lead to reduction
    in services and trade area.

    `Industry is now under grave threat because20of fall in prices in mining
    industry, despite they slightly climbed recently', he said. He said
    that copper concentrates were exported at $8,000 per ton in 2008, while
    in the future, up to 2015, the price will range from $3,000 to 4,000,
    as experts predict.

    Hence, Armenian business will fin itself in disadvantage. Asatryan said
    the real estimation of inflation would depend on the steps to be taken
    by the authorities.

    He thinks the authorities should curb monopolists. But as a whole,
    Armenia will reach a deadlock or be close to it, and relevant officials
    should take vigorous measured to prevent that. M.V.-0--

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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