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  • Small Story In Big World

    SMALL STORY IN BIG WORLD
    Hakob Badalyan

    Lragir.Am
    12:14:03 - 18/03/2009

    Conversations on the opening of the Armenian and Turkish border are
    rather activated on these days. Even statements are made on a possible
    progress in this connection in April, for example by Galust Sahakyan;
    Kiro Manoyan who is in charge of the political affairs and Hay Dat
    of the ARF Bureau even states that an agreement on the border opening
    is not ruled out either.

    At first sight, it seems that these conversations are expedient for
    Turkey which government is probable to have given some promises to
    the Armenian government or at least hinted at them, and the Armenian
    government, on the ground of these hints, spreads conversations on the
    forthcoming opening of the border. It is clear to everyone or almost
    everyone, that this enables Turkey to make understand the U.S. that
    in case of the recognition of the Armenian genocide, the Armenian
    and Turkish border opening may fail. This blackmail will become more
    persuasive if Armenia and Turkey sign a decree which will stand for
    the existence of something between these two countries.

    This will be the document pointed out by Kiro Manoyan which will
    create tangible grounds for Obama to postpone the question on the
    Armenian genocide recognition for a while, because it will be a
    little humiliating for the U.S. president to fulfil his promise to
    the Armenians just because of a Turkish bl ackmail. But, let it
    not create an impression that these conversations are expedient
    only to Turkey and Barak Obama and the Armenian authorities just
    swallowed the bait and afterwards they will remain with nohting,
    in other words the border will not open and the genocide will not be
    recognized. In reality, these conversations are quite favourable for
    Armenian government too. The point is that the Yerevan Mayor election
    is scheduled on May 31 and the Armenian opposition will try to give
    it a political shade. Proceeding from everything, the opposition will
    success in it, judging by the number of people participating in March
    1 rally, moreover that the opposition promoted Levon Ter-Petrosyan for
    Mayor. What the government may oppose to this step: besides violence,
    only asphalt, probably of bad quality. But the situation is a little
    different: both the asphalt and violence may be insufficient, and
    the violence- even dangerous.

    And here the progress on the Armenian and Turkish border opening may
    play its role. With the help of which, the Armenian government will try
    to distract the public from home processes and direct their attention
    towards external processes. "What Mayor Election? A historical event
    is going to take place," the government will probably propagate.

    So, the activation of the conversation concerning the Armenian and
    Turkish border opening is equally expedient for Turkey, Armenia and
    the U.S. The point is that if these activations go in with the State
    interest of Turkey and the U.S., considering that Turkey prevents the
    recognition of the Armenian genocide by the U.S. and the U.S. gets an
    opportunity to build relations with Turkey; in case of Armenia these
    conversations go in with the interests of the government. If the price
    for the progress is the maintenance of the home marsh and creation
    other perspectives for the clan-oligarchic system, the Armenian State
    interest is not notable even in case of the opening of the border.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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