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Turkey, Armenia On The Road To Normalizing Strained Relations

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  • Turkey, Armenia On The Road To Normalizing Strained Relations

    TURKEY, ARMENIA ON THE ROAD TO NORMALIZING STRAINED RELATIONS

    www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/domestic/11 318563.asp?gid=244
    March 31, 2009 07:51

    ANKARA - Turkey and Armenia agree on the roadmap to establish
    diplomatic ties and open the shared border. The timing of the
    declaration of the agreement remains key for Ankara. The key question
    is whether to announce the agreement before, during or after President
    Obama's visit.

    Ankara and Yerevan have agreed on the major parameters of a historic
    reconciliation in secret talks to start diplomatic relations and
    re-open their shared border, which Turkey closed in 1993 after Armenia
    occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

    Turkey and Armenia are readying to sign a protocol that marks
    commitment by both sides to establish diplomatic relations and set up
    committees on issues ranging from border management, customs, history
    and more. Having achieved a satisfying deal which includes setting
    up a history committee to discuss 1915 events, on which Yerevan
    dragged its feet for a long time, the remaining dilemma for Ankara
    is the proper timing of the announcement, the Hurriyet Daily News &
    Economic Review has learned.

    "The hard work is done. Everybody has faith that the deal will be
    made public soon," a diplomat told the Daily News, speaking on the
    condition of anonymity.

    The draft protocol will set the framework for transition to full
    diplomatic relations possibly starting with low-key representations
    in Ankara and Yerevan or accreditation of ambassadors from other
    neighboring capitals.

    Simultaneously Turkey will come up with a road map for a solution
    in Nagorno-Karabakh. The modalities of the new border regime will be
    determined upon the work by the border committee while as part of a
    show of good will immediate measures would be taken for a gradual
    opening. Diplomatic recognition will be supported by social and
    economic projects with coordination of the Turkish Armenian Business
    Development Council, or TABDC.

    Reconciliation efforts between the two neighbors intensified in
    secret talks after moderate Serge Sarkisian was elected president of
    Armenia in February 2008 and Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a
    landmark visit to Yerevan to attended Turkey-Armenia football match
    in September.

    Turkey's difficult choice on the 'date'

    Although U.S President Barack Obama will be in Turkey on April 6 and 7
    with a wider agenda, long-awaited normalization of ties between Ankara
    and Yerevan will be on the shortlist of important topics. Friends of
    Turkey in Washington favor an announcement by Ankara this week prior to
    Obama's arrival. Obama had pledged to recognize the Armenian killings
    in 1915 during his election campaign last year. This would both
    maintain a vigorous effect on Obama himself and also strengthen his
    hand to counter arguments of Armenian lobbies in the United States that
    invested hopes in his presidency, according to American policymakers.

    It is not clear, however, if Obama's expected April 24 statement on
    Armenian deaths will include qualifying the killings as genocide or if
    he will support the latest U.S. House of Representatives resolution
    introduced two weeks ago. Thus Ankara is keen to wait until strong
    assurances are secured from the U.S administration during Obama's
    visit before publicly announcing the deal with Armenia. "The ball is
    actually in the U.S.'s court," an expert said pointing to Obama as
    the key player in April's moves.

    If Turkey insists not to proceed with the announcement before Obama's
    meetings in Ankara, then there are two other symbolic dates on the
    horizon that would serve as meaningful opportunities for announcing
    the historic deal. The UN-sponsored Alliance of Civilizations summit
    in Istanbul, which coincides with Obama's visit, is the first
    opportunity because Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
    will also attend. The next option is Turkish Foreign Minister Ali
    Babacan's trip to Yerevan on April 16 to attend a meeting of the Black
    Sea Economic Cooperation Organization. Although the Turkish Foreign
    ministry has not publicized the decision yet, Yerevan was informed
    of confirmation of Babacan's attendance, the Daily News learned.

    Meanwhile Armenian lobbies in the United States has put pressure on
    the Yerevan administration to stall the announcement of the deal with
    Turkey until after the April 24 commemoration in order not to loose
    their leverage, according to observers in Washington.

    Cabinet or Parliament decision?

    According to Turkish law, the decision to recognize a state could
    be given by the Cabinet. It's not clear yet, however, if the ruling
    Justice and Development Party, or AKP, would stick to a Cabinet
    decision only to start to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia
    or bring the issue to Parliament. Another option is to pen an agreement
    to restore diplomatic ties with Armenia which would have to be ratified
    by Parliament. The reasons behind consideration for parliamentary
    approval are to minimize repercussions that may be triggered by
    opposition parties and to share the burden of this critical move.
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