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ANKARA: US Think-Tank Report Contains Odd Suggestions On Turkey

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  • ANKARA: US Think-Tank Report Contains Odd Suggestions On Turkey

    US THINK-TANK REPORT CONTAINS ODD SUGGESTIONS ON TURKEY

    Today's Zaman
    April 1 2009
    Turkey

    Releasing an updated report on Turkey days before US President
    Barack Obama's official visit to the Turkish capital, an influential
    Washington-based think tank has also examined the impacts of a
    prospective change of power in Turkey on the future of bilateral
    relations between the two NATO allies.

    The report, titled "Turkey's Shifting Dynamics," an update of
    a previous report, was released by the Center for Strategic and
    International Studies (CSIS), which also hosted a press briefing with
    several of its scholars: Bulent Alirıza, director of the CSIS Turkey
    Project; Reginald Dale, director of the Transatlantic Media Network;
    Stephen Flanagan, the Henry A. Kissinger Chair; and Steven Schrage,
    Scholl Chair in International Business.

    "If a more nationalist civilian or military leadership were to emerge
    in Ankara, this need not necessarily threaten the alliance. Although
    such governments would be more likely to be isolationist and to focus
    on perceived internal and external enemies, the relationship would
    be sustained by enduring common interests. Nevertheless, continuous
    high-level engagement by US and Turkish officials would be required
    to prevent disagreements from derailing the relationship. An avowedly
    Islamist Turkey would severely reduce the extent of cooperation,
    however, and might even challenge US policies, particularly in the
    Middle East," says the report.

    It also notes in its foreword that "civil-military relations in Turkey
    are far from the Western model, and the military studiously insulates
    itself from civil society."

    "A major economic downturn would likely stoke nationalist sentiments
    and could erode democracy. The TGS [the Turkish General Staff] would
    not seek a role of policy leadership under these circumstances, but
    it could become even more influential. This would not mean the end of
    the US-Turkish alliance as more limited cooperation on common interests
    could probably be sustained," it says. "A new national consensus on how
    greater religiosity and the secular state can coexist comfortably is
    not on the horizon, and in the meanwhile, Kemalist ideology will remain
    the official dogma of the state enshrined in its constitutional order,
    motivating the TGS and restricting the power of elected governments
    to act without the necessary and belated redefinition of what exactly
    it means for the country in the twenty-first century."

    CSIS scholars were asked to elaborate whether they believed that there
    is a risk of the emergence of an Islamist state in Turkey, because
    the report says that certain "strictures, often called Kemalism,
    maintained by the Constitutional Court and the TGS, effectively
    prevent the emergence of an Islamist state in Turkey."

    Flanagan said that they were trying to describe the balance of
    political power within Turkey without taking sides in that debate. "We
    didn't think that the AK Party's [the ruling Justice and Development
    Party] agenda was hidden at all," he added.

    "I don't think we are going to have an Islamist state in Turkey. I
    don't think too many people want an Islamist state even if it
    could be done. I also think the secular system needs to be revised,
    restructured," Alirıza said.

    Obama and a new strategic framework

    The report, meanwhile, highlights that "opportunities for enhanced
    cooperation and restoration of the basic structure of Turkey's
    Euro-Atlantic relationship exist," and more importantly "these can be
    found in Turkey's diplomacy with Iran, Iraq, and Syria; moves toward
    normalization of relations with Armenia; and a continued positive
    role in the democratization, economic development, and stabilization
    of the Caucasus and beyond."

    CSIS scholars mainly shared their assessments which, they said,
    they hope "will further dialogue on the renewal of this strategic
    and increasingly complex relationship" between Turkey and the United
    States.

    According to the scholars, the administration of US President Barack
    Obama has an opportunity to forge a more strategic relationship with
    Turkey, one in which both governments find ways to manage lesser
    differences in order to maintain effective cooperation in the
    advancement of critical, long-term interests.

    "The US-Turkey relationship is increasingly complex and sometimes
    messy. Fundamental changes and uncertainty in Turkey's domestic
    situation and neighborhood have altered how Turks perceive and pursue
    their interests. US global and regional priorities have also shifted
    since 2001. These differing political and geo-strategic situations
    will continue to lead the two countries to pursue distinct and
    sometimes divergent policies, and relations may remain somewhat
    volatile. Ankara's 'zero problems' approach to dealing with its
    neighbors and commitment to dialogue with them will sometimes be
    problematic for Washington. The question will linger whether Turkey
    can be counted on to take a tough stance with the United States
    when more palatable options are exhausted. There will also be times,
    however, when Turkey's ability to engage independently with some of
    its nettlesome neighbors can be used to advance mutual interests,
    as has been the case with Ankara's facilitation of the Syria-Israel
    indirect talks.

    "A new strategic framework for bilateral relations that reflects these
    evolving geopolitical dynamics and articulates a concrete positive
    common agenda could help keep relations on course. Such a framework
    could allow each country to forge common or complementary policies
    where there is consensus and manage areas where policy preferences
    or interests diverge. A sustained, high-level dialogue and a more
    structured process to orchestrate diplomatic, economic, and military
    cooperation would be a useful mechanism to manage this complexity."

    Warning over 'genocide' resolution

    The report, meanwhile, urges that "rather than seeking [to legislate]
    history, the United States and the international community provide
    maximum encouragement and support to the diplomatic rapprochement
    being pursued by the governments of Turkey and Armenia, as well as to
    emerging regional cooperation." It warns the US of a harsh reaction
    from Turkey toward the US over a "presidential proclamation" for
    recognizing killings of Anatolian Armenians during World War I as
    genocide as well as over adoption of a congressional resolution for
    such recognition.

    "A near-term uncertainty in the relationship is the 'Armenian
    genocide resolution.' If President Obama takes no action to prevent
    congressional enactment of the resolution, endorses the measure, or
    uses the word genocide himself, the Turkish response will be harsh
    and trigger a bitter breach in relations," the report states.

    "Creation of a joint Turkish-Armenian commission to explore this
    painful chapter in history and its continued legacy could also
    be helpful to that process," it suggests, in apparent reference
    to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 2005 letter to
    then-Armenian President Robert Kocharian, inviting him to establish
    a joint commission of historians and experts from both Turkey and
    Armenia to study the events of 1915 using documents from the archives
    of Turkey, Armenia and any other country believed to have played a
    part in the issue.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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