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Letter From Europe: Stakes High In Armenia-Turkey Talks

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  • Letter From Europe: Stakes High In Armenia-Turkey Talks

    LETTER FROM EUROPE: STAKES HIGH IN ARMENIA-TURKEY TALKS
    By Judy Dempsey

    New York Times
    April 29 2009
    NY

    BERLIN -- For several months, the leaders of Turkey and Armenia have
    defied the nationalists of both countries by holding secret talks in
    Switzerland in a bid to end a conflict in a highly volatile region
    on the fringes of Europe.

    Nearly a century after the Ottoman Empire's massacre of about one
    million Armenian Christians in 1915, Turkey's president, Abdullah
    Gul, and his Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, have reached a
    breakthrough in their immensely delicate negotiations.

    Last week, they agreed to a road map that could lead to the resumption
    of diplomatic relations and the reopening of the borders. If the
    agreement succeeds, it will have huge significance for the region. "The
    southern Caucasus could finally become stable and attractive for
    investors," said Suat Kiniklioglu, a Turkish legislator and spokesman
    for the Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee.

    If so, the powers that will dominate in the region will be neither
    the United States nor the E.U., which have done little to encourage
    this peace process.

    Instead, it will be Turkey and Russia -- two former empires -- that
    are attempting to re-establish their influence in a region rich in
    gas and oil and an important transit route to Europe.

    The biggest winner could be Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime
    minister and leader of the pro-Islamist Justice and Development
    Party. Since coming to power in 2003, Mr. Erdogan has forged ahead
    with reforms designed to prepare Turkey for E.U. membership.

    He has radically curtailed the influence of the military, which
    had hindered reforms, fearing it would lose its political role. The
    generals supported a vigorous pro-United States foreign policy at the
    expense of relations with their neighbors. That undervalued Turkey's
    strategic role in a region sandwiched between Europe and Central Asia.

    Mr. Erdogan changed all that. He devised a "Neighborhood Policy" in
    which Turkey's national interests would increasingly be defined by
    its relations with its neighbors -- Bulgaria and Syria, Azerbaijan
    and Georgia, Iraq and Iran. And Armenia, the thorniest of all.

    "The decision to seek normalization with Armenia is a Turkish
    initiative," said Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center
    for National and International Studies, based in Yerevan. "It is not
    a plan to please the U.S. or appease the E.U. It is about Turkey's
    national interests."

    The United States has long called for the resumption of ties between
    Turkey and Armenia. But successive U.S. presidents have come under
    pressure from the powerful Armenian diaspora and nationalists who
    insisted Turkey first recognize that the 1915 massacre of Armenians
    was a genocide before restoring ties.

    But under the influence of the army, successive Turkish governments
    have made it a focal point of national pride not to admit to
    genocide, even making it a crime to speak of the Armenian massacre
    as such. Mr. Erdogan already had to take a very big step to agree to
    establish a special historical commission with Armenia so that this
    issue will not derail the diplomatic efforts.

    The E.U. has played no constructive role as Turkey's accession talks
    with Brussels have become bogged down in recriminations. France and
    Germany are staunchly opposed to Turkey joining the E.U. despite
    Turkey's strategic role in this part of Europe, and its reforms. As
    a result, "The E.U. is less and less popular here, which is very
    frustrating for a leadership that is serious about reforms," said Suat
    Kiniklioglu, a Turkish legislator and spokesman for the Parliament's
    Foreign Affairs Committee.

    So with the United States and the E.U. relegated to the sidelines,
    Mr. Erdogan has embarked on a strategy that reflects Turkey's national
    interests but one that carries risks.

    Domestically, Mr. Erdogan has to deal with fiery nationalists and
    a dangerously disgruntled military, which oppose a rapprochement
    with Armenia.

    In the region, Turkey could spoil its relations with Azerbaijan,
    a country linguistically and economically close to Turkey and rich
    in oil and gas.

    Turkey supported Azerbaijan during the 1992 war in Nagorno-Karabakh
    -- an ethnic Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan. Since a cease-fire
    agreement in 1994, ethnic Armenian forces have occupied at least
    one-eighth of Azerbaijan while Turkey has sealed its borders with
    Armenia, making Armenia dependent on Russia for its economic survival.

    With Turkey's shift in foreign policy, Azerbaijan is becoming
    nervous. It fears that Turkey and Armenia would normalize relations
    without resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    "There is now a great opportunity to link the normalization of
    relations between Turkey and Armenia to ending the conflict in
    Nagorno-Karabakh," said Leila Alieva, director of the National
    Committee on Azerbaijan's Integration in Europe. "If there is no
    linkage, the momentum could be lost, and it could change the direction
    of Azerbaijan's foreign policy." Indeed, if Azerbaijan felt betrayed
    by the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement, it could turn to Russia,
    said Ms. Alieva.

    Russia, which during the Nagorno-Karabakh war had supported Armenia
    and even now controls Armenia's telecommunications, energy and rail
    networks, has already moved to set itself up as a peacemaker. With
    Turkey's support, it has begun to negotiate a pullout of Armenian
    forces from occupied territories of Azerbaijan that could allow the
    return of Azeri refugees.

    The rewards are big. Azerbaijan would regain control of most of
    its territory and Russia would be in a stronger position to seek an
    energy deal with Azerbaijan -- even though Azerbaijan is negotiating
    with the E.U. to supply gas to Europe's Nabucco pipeline. Russia
    too could become the guarantor of any peace agreement by sending
    Russian peacekeeping troops to Karabakh, bolstering its influence in
    the region.

    Finally, a normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey
    would also weaken Georgia, which Russia invaded last August. Once
    the borders are reopened, Armenia could become a new transit route
    for energy and other goods, thus marginalizing Georgia, which is
    Russia's aim, according to Richard Giragosian.

    For the United States and Europe, the result of this entire process
    could be ambiguous. The volatile southern Caucasus, a breeding ground
    for corruption, drug and human trafficking and miserable governance,
    could become much more peaceful and prosperous.

    But unless Europe and the United States embrace the big changes
    taking place in Turkey, they could lose much influence, as Turkey
    and Russia, the new regional superpowers, return to their historic
    spheres of influence.
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