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Absolute power corrupts absolutely: Azerbaijan lifts term limits

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  • Absolute power corrupts absolutely: Azerbaijan lifts term limits

    http://globalpolitician.com/25603-azerbaijan

    Abso lute power corrupts absolutely: Azerbaijan lifts term limits

    Farid Guliyev, Ph.D. candidate - 5/4/2009


    `Absolute power corrupts absolutely.' This famous dictum of Baron
    Acton sounds so true today in the former Soviet republic of
    Azerbaijan. Here the referendum this Wednesday (March 18) lifted term
    limits on the presidency granting approval to President Ilham Aliyev
    to serve as many times as he wishes after his second term finishes in
    2013. The poll approved more than 40 amendments to the constitution
    removing some of the restraints on the presidency. Ilham Aliyev, 47,
    succeeded his ailing father Heydar Aliyev in the presidential election
    in 2003 and voted to continue in office for the second five-year term
    in October 2008.

    Nowhere in the post-communist area is power so much personalized as in
    Azerbaijan. Even in Turkmenistan, notorious for its megalomaniacal
    ruler Saparmurat Turkmenbashi, the presidential office was not, after
    the death of Turkmenbashi, inherited by a family member but conferred
    on an elite insider. In Belarus, where President Lukashenko has been
    in power for more than 14 years, there is no comparable nepotism
    either. Perhaps, it would be more insightful to draw parallels (and
    learn lessons from) with Sub-Saharan Africa where the nascent state
    institutions were largely `privatized' serving the interests of the
    post-colonial elites. For example, Pesident Omar Bongo of Gabon has
    been in power since 1967.

    To the surprise of democracy optimists, the breakup of Communist rule
    saw the emergence of authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes.
    These regimes have all adopted Western-style institutional and legal
    setups but the state was typically exploited for private gain. Keeping
    this mind, it makes little sense to continue to frame events in the
    region as steps towards or away from democratization or consolidation
    of democracy. It is not that the removal of term limits would be a
    setback to consolidating an Azerbaijani democracy as the Council of
    Europe's Venice Commission opinioned about the constitutional
    amendments in Azerbaijan. Rather, it is a move towards the
    consolidation of an authoritarian regime.

    The Aliyevs have run the country by employing both carrots and sticks.
    Control of media has also been instrumental. A stream of oil revenues
    has enabled the government to keep the police force and other `power'
    ministries well-paid and fit. A brutal clampdown of a protest campaign
    in Baku in the aftermath of the controversial parliamentary vote in
    2005 is just one example.

    If sticks were used to instill fear and gain mass acquiescence,
    carrots went mostly to the ruler's cronies, friends and family members
    but were also dispersed on public goods. In this country, planned
    economy was not replaced by a fully-fledged market with a flourishing
    private sector. A partial economic reform that was implemented meant
    handing some of the Communist-era state enterprises over to regime
    cronies. Most important, the state has remained in control of the
    economy dominated by petroleum sector. Loyalty was compensated with
    access to state resources. Not only oil and gas industry but also
    other lucrative sectors like transportation, fishery, international
    trade and tariffs have been in service of various rent-seeking groups.
    Patronage was also used: government jobs were given as a means of
    cooptation (a more thorough discussion of what has kept the system
    working can be found in my article in the Harvard International
    Review, Feb 28, 2009: http://www.harvardir.org/articles/1823).

    These were enough to maintain a support base and manipulate public
    opinion. Added to this was international neglect and Western
    self-interest as regards setting priorities in the Caspian region. Oil
    means large investments which require stable environment and
    predictability. Western governments' interest in Caspian oil meant
    they would support whoever ensures that precious stability. While the
    West has been balancing its energy interests and democracy rhetoric,
    Russia has used its model of `managed democracy' as an alternative to
    a more demanding Western model of liberal democracy. Under Putin and
    now Medvedev, Russia has become more assertive and authoritarian. It
    has served as a role model for neighboring post-Soviet leaders. In a
    certain sense, Russia can be said to be promoting authoritarianism in
    the former Soviet states by sending its election monitoring missions
    which confirm the results of usually manipulated elections and thus
    provide external legitimation for undemocratic regimes. The same can
    be said about a handful of researchers and research institutions (e.g.
    the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute) as well as some European
    politicians (for instance, British MP Michael Hancock saying that
    scraping term limits is democratic), lobbyists and some state-backed
    NGO's who have all endorsed the strongmen's grip on power in this
    Caspian nation (Ken Silverstein has had a series of articles on this
    in Harper's Magazine).

    While it seems that the Obama administration takes a `quieter'
    approach to promoting democracy abroad, it cannot -- assuming this is
    an issue of domestic affairs -- keep silent about the developments in
    Azerbaijan. Neither can it abandon democracy promotion from its
    foreign policy agenda altogether. Instead, this is an ample
    opportunity for the US to stand for democracy. Itself a model of
    presidentialist government the U.S. could urge the government of
    Azerbaijan to create a truly presidential system based on the
    separation-of-powers and a fixed term in the office for president.


    Farid Guliyev is a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at the School
    of Humanities and Social Sciences in Jacobs University - Bremen.
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