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Baku Calling For Openness In Turkish-Armenian Relations

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  • Baku Calling For Openness In Turkish-Armenian Relations

    BAKU CALLING FOR OPENNESS IN TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS
    Fariz Ismailzade

    Jamestown Foundation
    May 5 2009

    Most Azerbaijani politicians as well as the general public believe
    that the recent developments in Turkey's bilateral relationship
    with Armenia were aimed only at influencing Barack Obama's April 24
    statement. Supposedly, Turkey wanted to provide a reason for Obama
    to avoid using the word "genocide" when referring to the events of
    1915. Now that Turkey has avoided this potential degradation in
    its relations with the United States, one of its closest allies,
    the question remains as to whether Turkey and Armenia will continue
    taking steps towards each other, or if their declared intention to
    normalize bilateral relations was only a tactical move.

    The government in Azerbaijan is carefully monitoring all the
    statements coming from both Yerevan and Ankara. It appears that the
    Turkish government is keen to continue on this track, which raises
    concerns within Baku. On April 13, a spokesman from Azerbaijan's
    Ministry of Foreign Affairs Elkhan Polukhov, said that "the opening
    of the border will be a tactical and strategic mistake and will
    increase the tensions in the region." While the Deputy Minister
    of Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov, stated four days earlier that,
    "the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia is possible
    in the context of the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani Karabakh
    conflict." Azimov added that the discussions on the issue could be
    included in the negotiation process on the Karabakh conflict, and that
    any normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations might occur in phases,
    in parallel with the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories
    (www.day.az. April 8).

    Indeed, both the Azerbaijani public and the leadership of the country
    categorically oppose a one-sided approach to the re-opening the
    Turkish-Armenian border. Foremost, Baku fears that opening the border
    will further strengthen Armenia and make it less cooperative in any
    future negotiations. Until now Azerbaijan had hoped that economics
    would play a decisive role in compelling Armenia to give up the
    occupied territories. Regional economic development between Azerbaijan,
    Georgia and Turkey was often cited as an example of Armenia's mistaken
    strategic choice, which led the country into economic and political
    isolation within the region. Baku hoped that in the longer term,
    the Armenian government may act in its national interests and prefer
    economic development rather than political nationalism.

    But Turkey's initiative to normalize its relations with Armenia risks
    ruining Baku's strategic planning and brings new uncertainties into
    the regional dynamics. The Azerbaijani government also fears that the
    Turkish-Armenian cooperation will alter the fragile balance of power
    within the region and might even provoke Armenia to pursue further
    military action.

    At the same time, the Turkish-Armenian border issue also has important
    symbolic meaning. Turkey closed its border at the start of the
    Karabakh conflict, due to Armenia's aggression against Azerbaijani
    territory. Renouncing that symbolic but powerful gesture of support
    could diminish Turkey's image within the region. An Azerbaijani Member
    of Parliament (MP) Sabir Rustamkhanli, told EDM on April 9 that he
    believed Turkey is being pressured by outside powers to re-open the
    border with Armenia, because "external forces" wanted to humiliate
    Turkey and show that it can yield under pressure.

    In the aftermath of Obama's statement on April 24, the Azerbaijani
    government's top priority is to foster dialogue with Turkey and
    ensure that policies are coordinated between the two strategic
    allies -avoiding any negative consequences to upset their bilateral
    relations. In this context, Azerbaijani officials have been privately
    complaining that they lack full information about Turkish intentions,
    and they fear that details are being deliberately concealed. In fact,
    the so-called "road map," signed by the Turkish and Armenian Presidents
    has not been shown to the Azerbaijani authorities. Asim Mollazade,
    MP and the leader of the Party for Democratic Reforms, expressed his
    outrage about the confidentiality of the talks between Turkey and
    Armenia. "We were not informed about these talks. We learned about
    them from other sources," said Mollazade (www.1news.az. April 30). It
    is expected that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's forthcoming trip
    to Baku will address some of these concerns.

    On the other hand, Azerbaijani officials recognize that there have
    been some positive results stemming from these recent developments:
    the growing interest of the international community in this region and
    specifically in seeking to find a resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
    as well as the sudden realization that Azerbaijan and Turkey must
    constantly work to improve their bilateral relations. Public outreach
    in this respect is a prerequisite, Azerbaijani officials believe. In
    mid-April a group of Azerbaijani parliamentarians traveled to Turkey to
    deliver this message from Azerbaijan. A similar message was conveyed
    by Turkish parliamentarians in Baku. Both countries will increase
    their public diplomacy in order to avoid any future misunderstandings
    similar to those experienced in relation to the anxiety triggered
    over Turkish-Armenian rapprochement.
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