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Turkey and Armenia Mountain chess

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  • Turkey and Armenia Mountain chess

    e-Haber Ajansi , Turkey
    May 9 2009

    Turkey and Armenia Mountain chess
    09 Mayıs 2009 Cumartesi - 17:48:21


    A HIGH-STAKES chess game is being played out in the south Caucasus. It
    involves America, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey. Unlike
    chess-players, though, all the participants can win in this game, it
    is hoped, if they agree on a common aim: peace between Turkey and
    Armenia, which would help to thaw the frozen conflict between Armenia
    and By Elektronik Haber Ajansı (e-ha) Azerbaijan over the (mainly
    Armenian) territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

    It almost seemed possible on April 23rd, when Turkey and Armenia
    declared that they had agreed on a `Road map' to establish formal ties
    and reopen the border. This was sealed by Turkey in 1993 to show
    solidarity with Azerbaijan, which had just lost 20% of its territory,
    including Nagorno-Karabakh. If the border were open, Armenians could
    then climb their sacred Mount Ararat. Friendship with Armenia might
    give Turkey the muscle to push through a deal on Karabakh, as well as
    securing it a bigger role in the south Caucasus. And that would give
    Turkey's friends a fresh reason to promote Turkish membership of the
    European Union.

    The most immediate benefit, though, was meant to be dissuading Barack
    Obama from keeping his campaign promise to call the mass slaughter of
    Ottoman Armenians in 1915 genocide. In the statement he issued on
    April 24th, the day when the world's Armenians commemorate the
    tragedy, the American president tried to please everybody. He plumped
    for "medz yeghern", Armenian for "great catastrophe". (Cynics noted
    that the Turkish- Armenian deal, though initialled a month ago, had
    been announced only a day earlier.) And he praised Turkey's and
    Armenia's peacemaking efforts. Hardliners in Armenia and the diaspora
    were furious, accusing Mr Obama of reneging on his promise. Yet in
    Turkey the opposition complained that he had simply swapped Armenian
    for English to say the same thing.

    A bigger obstacle to a deal may be Azerbaijan. It is threatening to
    turn towards Russia and to increase the price of the natural gas it
    sells to Turkey. This may explain why the Turkish prime minister,
    Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has reverted to the traditional line that,
    unless Armenia makes peace with Azerbaijan, Turkey will not make peace
    with Armenia-even though the text they initialled reportedly does not
    mention Nagorno-Karabakh at all.

    Some say he is posturing, to force Armenia to withdraw from some of
    the seven regions of Azerbaijan that it occupies outside
    Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliev, and his
    Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sargsyan, are due to meet in Prague next
    week, before an EU eastern-partnership summit. But Mr Sargsyan, whose
    image was marred by a disputed presidential election in April 2008, is
    unlikely to bend further. One admittedly puny coalition partner has
    already walked out over the deal with Turkey. The financial crisis is
    starting to bite, too. Armenian migrant labourers are returning from
    Russia in droves. Oil and gas prices have shot up. The Armenian dram
    has lost over a third of its value against the dollar.

    The real spoiler may turn out to be Russia. Armenia is the only
    country bordering Turkey, a NATO member, in which the Russians have
    troops and a base. Peace with Turkey could lead to their withdrawal,
    as Armenia leans westward. The trade-off, say some, could be for
    Russian peacekeepers to defend the corridor linking Armenia proper to
    Nagorno-Karabakh. But Russia is also said to be bullying Azerbaijan
    for more gas. If it gets it, that may kill the planned Nabucco
    pipeline to carry Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas to Europe via
    Turkey, leaving Europe more dependent on Russia for its energy.

    (e-ha) Huseyin Kinay

    http://www.e-haberajansi.com/haberdetay.php ?haber=6124
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