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TURKEY ASSURES AZERBAIJAN IN FACE OF ARMENIA DEAL
Natalia Leshchenko
World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
May 14, 2009
A meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku,
resulted in further confusion over relations in the Caucasus. Erdogan
gave Aliyev the long-sought promise that Turkey's recent rapprochement
with Armenia will depend on the resolution of Azerbaijan-Armenia
conflicts over Nagornu Karabakh. Namely, Erdogan said that the
Turkish-Armenia border will not reopen until Armenia withdraws troops
from the disputed territory in Azerbaijan. This is very much to the
satisfaction of Azerbaijan, which had openly objected to reconciliation
between Armenia and Turkey, something that had become particularly
visible over the last two months.
Significance:In making this promise to Aliyev, Erdogan has seriously
undermined the new-found policy of reconciliation with Armenia as
attempts to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict have so far hit a
dead end. Optimists might argue that the need to normalise trilateral
relations will drive all participants to find a solution, especially
given that Turkey itself has pushed for renewed efforts on the Nagorno
Karabach peace process of late, with the apparent tacit approval and
support of Russia. A discouraging factor, however, is that Erdogan is
likely to have made his promise to Aliyev according to very different
reasoning, based on Azerbaijani gas deliveries to Turkey and the
purported Nabucco pipeline, which is of key importance to Turkey's
own plans for closer involvement with Europe. No official reaction
to the Turkey-Azeri deal has come from Armenia so far. Although
Erdogan's promise to Azerbaijan could have been expected, it further
illustrates the tightness of the knot the three countries' leaders
have to untangle.
Natalia Leshchenko
World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
May 14, 2009
A meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in the Azerbaijani capital, Baku,
resulted in further confusion over relations in the Caucasus. Erdogan
gave Aliyev the long-sought promise that Turkey's recent rapprochement
with Armenia will depend on the resolution of Azerbaijan-Armenia
conflicts over Nagornu Karabakh. Namely, Erdogan said that the
Turkish-Armenia border will not reopen until Armenia withdraws troops
from the disputed territory in Azerbaijan. This is very much to the
satisfaction of Azerbaijan, which had openly objected to reconciliation
between Armenia and Turkey, something that had become particularly
visible over the last two months.
Significance:In making this promise to Aliyev, Erdogan has seriously
undermined the new-found policy of reconciliation with Armenia as
attempts to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict have so far hit a
dead end. Optimists might argue that the need to normalise trilateral
relations will drive all participants to find a solution, especially
given that Turkey itself has pushed for renewed efforts on the Nagorno
Karabach peace process of late, with the apparent tacit approval and
support of Russia. A discouraging factor, however, is that Erdogan is
likely to have made his promise to Aliyev according to very different
reasoning, based on Azerbaijani gas deliveries to Turkey and the
purported Nabucco pipeline, which is of key importance to Turkey's
own plans for closer involvement with Europe. No official reaction
to the Turkey-Azeri deal has come from Armenia so far. Although
Erdogan's promise to Azerbaijan could have been expected, it further
illustrates the tightness of the knot the three countries' leaders
have to untangle.